posting on x might be one of the most asymmetric things. you can do right now
the site user base ranges from the most fluent technologically sound ppl / CEOs to the most unhinged unemployed ppl
and that's whats so special ^ fund about it
tha;ts also kind of my thesis.
if we take that there will be mass layoffs (or layoffs) in general, that will create a 'financial vacuum', where people will have heard of esoteric ways to get rich (non-conventional) such as sports betting, prediction mrkets, crypto etc.
remember, things often lead to their opposites. mass layoffs -> financial vacuum -> hypergambling
stability (conventionalism) | instability (hypergambling)
best is to prepare now
esoteric analysis:
they are gonna start mass layoffs soon (see microsoft)
and to not get raped by karma, they are gonna need to spin up a place where ppl can get rich quick
lots of ppl going broke == lots of ppl getting rich (perfect balance, u see)
and that place always has been crypto
idk what's exactly gonna drive the next onchain szn, but i feel the heavy aura of it coming our way, stay focused
MidasCapital retweeted
agree or disagree?
people say time in the market > timing the market
yes, that's true if you zoom out, but during your time in the market, timing when you are risk on is everything
there are periods where trading is extremely +EV, and other times, you should just log off and play basketball outside
from my 4 years, 20% of the time it was smart to play, 80% of the time it was better to do anything else
Unpopular opinion, but I think 90% of crypto traders would make significantly more money if they stopped trading memecoins.
Most people aren't actually trading, they're gambling on whatever ticker is trending, following wallets they don't understand and convincing themselves they're early because someone with 50k followers posted a comment.
There's absolutely money to be made in the trenches, but the uncomfortable truth is that most people would be better off doing absolutely nothing.
Agree or disagree?
folks don't realize that 72/80b came from convertible notes
operating loss was only ~700m
not saying this won't happen, but the given facts don't match!
the headlines from anthropic's S-1 about losing $80.7B this year is a bigger warning sign for solo builders than it is for investors.
it reveals their growth strategy, and we've seen this playbook before.
amazon in the 2000s and early 2010s looked like it barely made money. it wasn't losing it. it was pouring it into aws and media. the "bad numbers" were growth investments.
uber subsidized rides for years. cheap rides weren't the business. they were subsidizing rides until every cab rider became an uber rider.
now look at anthropic.
a maxed out $200 claude plan is about $7k a month of api usage. ~36x what you pay.
that's not a pricing mistake. they're paying to get you hooked. and it's working on me.
this is the part you need to pay attention to.
subsidies end. uber's did. after the ipo there's a stock price to defend, and building with agents gets a lot more expensive.
anthropic is going to pull the rug on max plans at some point after IPO. and the price you'll pay is going to skyrocket.
here's how you should prepare:
build as much as you can right now.
and find out where your tokens actually go, so you're efficient before you're forced to be.
learning physics as a hobby is one of the best things you can do; if you get into the habit of that the bar for complexity for topics that you want to understand but are afraid to start due to feeling dumb initially becomes really low
tldr; start learning physics
long bitcoin
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
long security compniaes
Apparently there’s a patch for the critical PHP vulnerabilities but a few things that are alarming.
1) Many websites that use php with sensitive information are simply abandoned. There will be no upgrade. That means they’re going to get pwned and leaked. That’s a LOT of the internet
2) This requires active participants to upgrade their sites that even know about this vulnerability. If you’re on X you’re at the tip of the tip of the spear. Most people don’t know about this.
3) Anthropic says that this is ONE of SEVERAL critical vulnerabilities that they have found. Which means there’s more chaos coming.
TLDR: A large portion of the unmaintained internet is about to be pwned and god help us all or something like that.
(5) "You've got to fish where the fish are."
Li Lu on the six timeless principles of value investing.
(1) "Stock is a piece of ownership, not a piece of paper to trade around."
(2) "The market is there to serve you, not to instruct you."
(3) "Investing is about predicting the future — which is inherently unpredictable — therefore you always want to require a margin of safety that helps you protect the downside."
(4) "The most important [part] of a circle of competence is knowing the edge of it. Understanding the edge is as important as understanding what is inside the [circle]."
(5) "You've got to fish where the fish are."
(6) "Wealth, in the end, is really the percentage ownership of global purchasing power. What is really important is what you can buy with [that wealth]."
(Columbia University || 2026)
the market is a stem master that seldom tolerates the carelessness associated with trades born of desperation
Be Alexander Fleming
-> 1928 comes back from vacation to a messy lab.
-> find mold has contaminated one of his bacteria dishes and ruined his experiment
-> his inner curiosity prevents him from throwing the petri dish, instead inspects it first
-> finds the cultivated bacteria around it are dead. pure accident
-> immediately thinks this could be used as medicine
-> discovery largely sits undeveloped for a decade (can't purify it enough to be used as medicine)
-> 12 years later, scientists finally purify enough penicillin to successfully treat infected mice
-> first major clinical trials, but production is still too limited
-> 1943–1945: mass production scales during WWII
-> decades later: millions of lives saved, medicine transformed forever.
best results come from unexpected places. cultivate your curiosity.
in case anyone else wanted to double-check the full quote on the wall:
Man has a large capacity for effort. In fact it is so much greater than we think it is that few ever reach this capacity. We should value the faculty of knowing what we ought to do and having the will to do it. Knowing is easy; it is the doing that is difficult. The critical issue is not what we know but what we do with what we know. The great end of life is not knowledge, but action. I believe that it is the duty of each of us to act as if the fate of the world depended on him ... we must live for the future, not for our own comfort or success.
--Admiral Rickover
and for the extra curious, the full version of the passage appears in his essay Thoughts on Man's Purpose in Life
cdn.carnegiecouncil.org/medi…
successful investing can be summarised in 1 sentence:
find undiscovered/mispriced high potential energy with high chance of becoming kinetic/mechanical or if you hit the jackpot nuclear















