@weakinstrument

Chief of Staff @SIEPR. PhD'ing @UW. I research energy markets during the transition and consumer sentiment. Views my own.

 Palo Alto, CA
Joined March 2020
  • Tweets5.9K
  • Following2K
  • Followers3.2K
768Media
Ryan Cummings retweeted
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar5h
“He’s got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened up a Cheesecake Factory” — Obama
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Brazilian WhatsApp (“Zap”) is going absolutely crazy ahead of the 2nd round on Sunday. Messages going platinum every hour.
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Folks @nealemahoney is a podcaster now and the results are in: he’s extremely good at it. Thrilled for Neale, our comms team (May Wong), the folks at Lower Street Media, and everyone else who put in the work for winning the podcasting Oscar!!
Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
@SIEPROct 22
🥳 Big news: We just learned that Our Econ To Go podcast has won Gold at the Signal Awards in the Education category! That's three awards from Season 1 alone! Catch up on episodes before Season 2 drops in November: siepr.stanford.edu/news/podc…
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Instead, policymakers enacted temporary tax cuts under Bush, made them permanent under Obama, enacted temporary tax cuts under Trump 1, and then made them permanent/enacted new temporary tax cuts under Trump 2. If we hadn’t cut taxes, debt would be lower and stable.
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Ryan Cummings retweeted
Bobby Kogan@BBKoganOct 23
We used to have a federal survey that measured hunger in America, but the Trump administration stopped conducting the survey right after the bill that cut food assistance was passed.
Bobby Kogan@BBKoganOct 23
We are seeing a hunger disaster unrolling before our eyes. Since the GOP passed the Big Beautiful Bill, 2 million kids have lost food assistance. These are by far the deepest SNAP cuts in history, and each month, we find out it’s worse than we thought. The worst is yet to come.
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“In gold terms” lmao. His parents house costs $179k in 2026$, and thus if they sell it for $783k, they will have 4x’d their investment in real terms. Not as good as the stock market (that would be worth $10M in 2026$), but still not bad!
Anthony Scaramucci
@ScaramucciOct 22
My parents paid $16,000 for the house I grew up in. It’s now worth $783,000 on Zillow. Sounds like they made a fortune, right? In gold terms, that house cost 450 ounces in 1962. At today’s gold price, it’s worth 250 ounces. The house actually lost value. Politicians get away with robbing working class people blind because most people don’t realize their nominal gains aren’t real gains. They think they’re inflation-adjusted rich, but they’re not.
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Ryan Cummings retweeted
Edward Conard
@EdwardConardOct 22
According to Ramp data, 80% of firms in the top 1% of AI spending are VC-backed, compared with just 13% of firms at the median. This suggests that the largest purchasers of AI computing capacity rely heavily on venture capital rather than internally generated earnings. edwardconard.com/macro-round…

80% of top AI spenders are VC-backed, not organic

Ramp data reveals 80% of the top 1% of AI spenders rely on venture capital, compared to 13% of median spenders, indicating potential demand risks.

edwardconard.com
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The Real World (of economic policymaking): Wealth Tax Edition. When people STOP arguing based on the evidence and START arguing based on their priors/values.
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Ryan Cummings retweeted
chloe gibbs@chloergibbsOct 21
I believe the plan was retirees overseeing it? This was the point at which we kicked Ryan out of the meetings...
Ryan Cummings@weakinstrumentOct 21
Replying to @weakinstrument @nealemahoney @chloergibbs @CalebBrobst97
My contribution to this effort was to suggest, repeatedly, that a simple solution to the Childcare crisis would be to buy an old Costco, put gym mats all over it, and let ~1,000 kids run wild w/15 teenagers to oversee it. For some weird reason, the team didn't like that.
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This has been my take since SpaceX went public; if there is an AI bubble and if it pops, Elon Musk--who is among the greatest showmen to ever live--will delay a SpaceX selloff by punishing shorts through a merger with Tesla.
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Incredibly excited for folks to see the hard work that @nealemahoney, @chloergibbs, Jessica Brown, TV Ninan, @CalebBrobst97, Abby Sanchez, and Anna Hoffman (+others) have put into using state-of-the-art economics to create a Childcare "scoring" model that's useful to policymakers
Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
@SIEPROct 21
🚼 For too many American families, finding #affordablechildcare is a serious problem. With policymakers across the country looking for solutions, @SIEPR's new Stanford Childcare Model helps them evaluate the effects of key reforms. Check it out: siepr.stanford.edu/policymod…
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My contribution to this effort was to suggest, repeatedly, that a simple solution to the Childcare crisis would be to buy an old Costco, put gym mats all over it, and let ~1,000 kids run wild w/15 teenagers to oversee it. For some weird reason, the team didn't like that.
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Spurs vs OKC already has four technical fouls and a flagrant (all in one play) and we’re only at the top of the 2nd quarter. The NBA is so back baby
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Trump trying to rename New Mexico is of course absurd but I will use it as a reminder to everyone that a Santa Fe-Los Alamos-Taos vacation is the most criminally underrated trip in the U.S. Rockies mountains of CO but w/much better food, 1/2 the price, and 10% of the people.
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Ryan Cummings retweeted
Gwart
@GwartyGwartOct 20
There are literally zero moats left unless you go to the portfolio tab on our website those are the only companies with moats
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Ryan Cummings retweeted
Neale Mahoney
@nealemahoneyOct 20
Replying to @KateReinmuth
@KateReinmuth is the best. Her JMP uses rich administrative data from a big law firm to examine the leaky pipeline in women’s advancement from associate to partner, and which promotion policies would actually close the gap. She has a terrific portfolio, including an AEJ Applied on how non-competes slow innovation. Economists and law schools should interview, fly her out, and hire her. Proud to be on her committee with @I_Am_NickBloom, @liraneinav, and Alessandra Voena.
Kate Reinmuth@KateReinmuthOct 20
🚨 JMP: How do firm promotion policies shape gender promotion gaps? In large law firms, we find that: 1. Part-time work is stickier for women and explains much of the status quo promotion gap. 2. Policy changes can narrow the gap, but with varying effects on firm productivity.
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Honestly, only 4/7 people in your field thinking you're an idiot is a pretty impressive flex.
Ulugbek S. Kamilov
@prof_kamilovOct 20
I always considered myself a well-rounded person. Then I got a PhD and became an expert on a topic that only 7 people understand. Four of them think I’m an idiot.
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Ryan Cummings retweeted
Kate Reinmuth@KateReinmuthOct 20
Link to draft: bit.ly/4hKVWls ➡️ One key result: accounting for part-time work when measuring performance can cut the promotion gap in half, with weakly positive effects on firm productivity.

Reinmuth JMP - The Leaky Pipeline.pdf

Shared with Dropbox

dropbox.com
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Incredible paper with 1) a very novel dataset (1000 attorneys at a Big Law firm over 5 years!) and 2) a rich model which allows Kate to examine where women fall off the promotion ladder. Kate is also an awesome person and a great colleague to top it all off!
Kate Reinmuth@KateReinmuthOct 20
🚨 JMP: How do firm promotion policies shape gender promotion gaps? In large law firms, we find that: 1. Part-time work is stickier for women and explains much of the status quo promotion gap. 2. Policy changes can narrow the gap, but with varying effects on firm productivity.
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Ryan Cummings retweeted
Jason Furman
@jasonfurmanOct 20
What do Larry Kudlow, Janet Yellen, Steve Mnuchin, @econJaredB & me have in common? We all believe the permitting reform bill is essential for America to build, grow, tackle climate change and maintain our technological lead. Probably the broadest letter I've ever signed.
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