Sung 성 誠

when i worked at @GoldmanSachs, i pulled multiple all-nighters pricing tech IPOs. if you're considering buying $CRCL, read this. TLDR i would not invest in @circle's IPO after a 168% pop. why? when bankers price an IPO, they engineer a "pop" on IPO day. as we just saw with Circle's 168% pop, this sharp price increase creates huge excitement and bullish sentiment around the company. all eyes focus on the stock, drawing more investors in and driving price higher. but don't fall for it. so what should the intelligent retail investor do? wait 90-180 days after IPO to invest. not just to allow for price discovery, but because that's typically when the lockup period ends. but why? and what's the "lockup period"? the lockup period is when insiders and early investors (eg vc funds etc) are prohibited from selling their shares. when the lockup period ends, insiders and early investors typically sell their shares, causing lots of selling pressure and pushing price down. this typically gives long-term retail investors a great opportunity to buy shares at a discount. as an example, facebook shares hit new lows in 2012 when its lockup period ended, allowing insiders to sell up to 800 million shares on the open markets (in fact, shares even hit all-time lows). simply CTRL + F for "lock-up agreements" in any S-1 filing to get more info on lockups. in circle's case, it's 180 days. nfa.