π«΅πΏ
Albemarle, NC
Joined December 2011
- Tweets28.1K
- Following2.3K
- Followers2K
- Likes54.6K
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
π¨INCREDIBLE: A 3-year-old was kidnapped from a public library. 48 minutes later, he was on a city bus crying next to his kidnapper β and no one knew.
No one except the bus driver.
In Milpitas, California, driver Tim Watson had heard the police alert earlier that day: Missing 3-year-old boy, city-wide search underway.
Then a man boarded his bus with a small boy who wouldn't stop crying. Something felt wrong.
Tim looked closer. The face. The clothes. The description. It was him.
But he couldn't scream. He couldn't confront him. One wrong move and that little boy could be in even more danger.
So Tim came up with a plan.
He got on the intercom and told passengers: "Someone reported a missing green backpack, I'm going to take a quick look."
He started walking the aisle, pretending to search for a backpack β but he was really getting a close look at the child.
It was the missing boy.
Tim quietly radioed dispatch, alerted police, and then did the hardest thing of all β he sat back down, stayed calm, and kept driving like nothing happened, with the alleged kidnapper sitting just feet behind him.
He kept that bus rolling until police intercepted it. Officers swarmed the bus, arrested the man, and scooped that terrified little boy into safety.
That child is home with his family tonight because one bus driver trusted his gut and stayed cool under pressure.
He's not a cop. He's not a hero who was supposed to be there.
He's Tim Watson β a bus driver who saw a child in danger and refused to look away.
This man deserves to be recognized.π
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
ANSWER: You can make plenty of money buying the dip in a risk-off Market Regime. This requires getting lucky. You can, however, lose lots of money buying the dip in a risk-off Market Regime. This requires nothing more than what is currently happening to continue happening.
The asymmetry associated with risking a Type 2 error for the reward of being able to tell people that you βbought lowβ is not sound risk management. The volatility drag/return sequence math clearly indicates you should never value capital appreciation more than you value capital preservation. Both are important.
This is why the best answer to the question below is, βRight when the risk-on Market Regime arrives.βΒ
Again, this is not to say that catching falling knives doesnβt work. It can work spectacularly well on occasion. It is simply to say that most professional investors who have tried to make a career out of catching falling knives are no longer professional investors.Β
You do what you want with this information.Β
Make wise choices,
βSkipper π
When Will the Next Buy-the-Dip Opportunity Arrive?
@DariusDale42 joined @tomkeene and @ptsweeney on @BloombergRadio to explain why @42Macroβs quantitative systems pivoted to a risk-off Market Regime.
With election and AI-related risks severely underpriced, Darius also discussed how a potential Fed-Treasury liquidity backstop could eventually create an opportunity to buy the dip further down the road.
Listen to the full appearance here:
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
the good thing about being bearish majors is there will be concentrated attention on few things onchain & those that accumulate supply during peak fear are most diamond handed holders, catalysts also have more impact for upside
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
diamond hands only
the divine art of βholdingβ is a psychological process of elimination in which, through many ups & downs in price-action over a long period of time, holders are brought in & shaken out in accordance with their respective belief in the token vs. its price-action until the great majority of holders remaining at the gut-wrenching lows consist primarily of those that sit in the upper-echelon of βbeliefβ in the token; their belief in the token surpasses the intermediate fears that come with negative swings in price β they would rather lose money than give up their belief in the token
these conditions are responsible for the βleg upβ that a token may make after a period of consolidation β the leg up is the direct result of these conditions being met (outside of a direct catalyst)
in the process, many fall victim to fear and end up on the sidelines; fomo-fueled candle-chasers follow (and contribute to momentum) on the way up, and fear-riddled chart-tourists get shaken out (and contribute to momentum) on the way down
at the same time, many of the holders that are picked up along the way during consolidation and with each βleg upβ do stay, and do believe β they are responsible for the creation of βhigher lowsβ on the chart as the base of believers, in contrast to βtouristsβ (on the way out), grows and compounds
it is a divine process that cannot be skipped, and it is a complete and total requirement that must be met before the price is able to rise beyond a given range
it also takes more time than most are willing to wait, which also contributes in its own way, but it greatly rewards those who hold their belief over a long period of time
holding is a skill; holding is an art; holding is a divine process, a song that the market must play in its entirety
thanks for reading,
ily
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
it has become complete counter-consensus to be bullish onchain now, have never seen sentiment this bad & ive been here ~9 years
crypto twitter has forgotten that it requires actual work on the builder side to make coins do well, so many traders complaining about lower ceilings on coins and not nearly enough people actually trying to build interesting protocols and/or to change that dynamic
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
ansem isnβt kimchi or a celebrity. heβs been a main character on crypto twitter for a decade. heβs not going away.
attention comes and goes in rotations but it always cycles back to ansem. ppl keep confusing his silence with the end of his relevance.
look at whatβs happening rn. even when heβs silent, ppl beg for his attention all day every day. they want him posting, talking about their bags, acknowledging them. his silence doesnβt even stop ppl from talking about him.
thatβs exactly why $ANSEM is a good bet at these levels. weβre betting on attention coming back around to someone ppl canβt stop talking about even when he says nothing at all.
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
No sweeter feeling as a father to hear this reaction from your kids
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
winners of the clawpump x $ANSEM hackathon announced! has been cool to support builders in the ecosystem
The largest agentic hackathon ever just concluded.
$350K in cash, inference & token awards, operated by Clawpump, supported by @blknoiz06, @solana, @UsePodAI and @Pumpfun.
In one month: $50M+ in volume, $500K in creator fees paid out to 200+ builders, and the ecosystem's market cap up 3x to $74.26M.
When we started 7 months ago, devs bootstrapping a company from public markets was just an idea. Today, ClawPump is the largest agentic developer platform on Solana.
We would like to congratulate:
- @usehotbot, Agentic Swarm Trading. $20K USD & 30% of 0.1% ANSEM supply.
- @SelfMadebySP3ND, Compute GPU Vendor & RWA Gatcha. $20K USD & 30% of 0.1% ANSEM supply.
- @mystudiosfun, AI Influencer Video Generation. UsePod Track winner. $2.5K Cash, $10K Inference & 15% of 0.1 ANSEM supply.
β’ @Shin_StAItion - Agentic Privacy & Private x402 Payments. $2.5K Cash & 15% of 0.1 ANSEM supply.
This is just the start of our support to these teams. We'll keep backing them with investment, token management, and help turning them into generational products on Solana and beyond.
To every builder who joined: We'll keep supporting you. If you're talented and have an idea, come build with us. We'll help you with everything from launch to market fit.
This is just the beginning for the ClawPump ecosystem.
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
alright so I tried to figure out why things are blowing up
simple summary: it's geopolitics. and if the Middle East gets bad enough, then the backers for OpenAI's $1.4T funding round could pull out so that's sending shockwaves through markets bc they're the big data center tenant ppl are worried about. the incremental appears to be that Ukraine is also getting unhinged
there's not an AI specific catalyst this seems more like geopolitics. Last night TSM guided acceleration and Citi pressed if there was demand destruction on memory - TSM said no, that's already factored into the guide which means there's not some specific Korea fundamental thing -- and price action there is likely more of a margin call
Ukraine bonds have dumped 20% since July. He just asked for $70b Euros from the EU while Trump denied shutting off Starlink (Elon had said it wasn't him, so it just looks like a sht show). Trump told Zelensky to stop attacking Russian refineries. Zelensky has since crashed out and said "The block is out, we're done". And is now vowing to hit Russian refineries. And it appears he's already followed through hitting a facility in Surgut with drones
Indonesia got delisted from the MSCI and the entire country equity index is -14% in a day, increasing the likelihood of EM contagion
Iran has moved their nuclear facilities under ground in PickAxe mountain and trump has talked about using the "MOAB" which stands for Massive Ordnance Air Blast - which is just shy of a nuclear blast. THis is a 21,600 pound bomb that isn't even particularly effective at hitting underground sites so might just be generically destructive. For some reason Trump thinks that doing this after mid terms is fine - but oil is already pumping
reports from Israel meanwhile: Israel now deploying mobile bomb shelters in major cities, with 2 reportedly spotted in Ashdod and Tel Aviv within 24hs, as IDF raises its alert level to highest across all fronts amid preparations for a possible strike on Iran
fun times
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
$SI triangle update π
sometimes you just need to zoom out
all of the noise about the 'dump' over the past week or so is just a normal correction after the most aggressively impulsive rally of any memecoin in the past month
the real move starts when SI breaks out of this triangle
and if $BTC behaves and continues to hold/trend up from here...
i think it happens a lot sooner than many are anticipating!
SI is going to be one of the strongest memecoins of Q4 IMO!
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
$SI is up more than every other cryptocurrency on my watchlist today
so much for those calling it 'dead'
first, you reverse the capitulation candle
then comes the aggressive outperformance that leaves everyone wondering why they didn't buy the dip
i think many are going to regret fading this one
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
everyone expects capitulation to be over in minutes
but sometimes it takes hours
sometimes days
the point is, you don't wait for capitulation to feel over to start buying
you buy when everyone else is losing conviction
and i genuinely believe many will look back at this $SI capitulation candle and wish they had bought it
i know this is a VERY contrarian take, but i objectively believe $SI makes new ATHs and runs to hundreds of millions
the opportunity is always clearest in hindsight
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
i say this with all of the truthfulness and sincere appreciation of the team
@Shin_StAItion is the most heads down, high experimentation, focused and hyper pragmatic privacy teams iβve ever seen
agentic privacy = solana:7TKRV4SneC6xLRaAt21a6d1kheAzXHGKP9WDzri9aD2e
zcash:native Zcash brought privacy to onchain money.
solana:7TKRV4SneC6xLRaAt21a6d1kheAzXHGKP9WDzri9aD2e could bring that same idea to the AI economy. As AI agents start paying for APIs, data, and compute, every transaction can reveal who they interact with and how they operate.
@Shin_StAItion is building a private payment layer for AI agents on Solana. different era, same thesis: privacy becomes more valuable as onchain activity grows.
Shinjuku could be the next Zcash, but for the agentic economy @clawpumptech @ConejoCapital @tomi204 @x402 @solana
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
i believe the strongest communities in crypto are built around relationships that can survive price volatility
$ANSEM is an interesting example of that thesis playing out
i've spent years building relationships with people through trading, sharing ideas and being active onchain
as social trading grows, i expect attention, reputation and community loyalty to become increasingly important drivers of value
SonyToprano πποΈ retweeted
I have $1.4M invested into $SI
You can sell me all your tokens, I genuinely donβt give a fuck
Iβm so stubborn that Iβd rather keep doubling down than admit defeat
You might think Iβll eventually run out of money, but thatβs not happening anytime soon
