#CARvsGB officiating crew cheat sheet
HOME teams are 44-69-5 ATS (39%) in referee Scott Novak's career
HOME teams are 1-6 SU & 0-5-2 ATS w' Novak in 2026
However, the #Packers are 7-2 SU & 4-3-2 ATS all time w' Novak, including a 3-1 SU/ATS record at Lambeau Field
Novak No.1 penalty per game avg
Green Bay & Carolina rank No.1 & No.4 respectively in penalty per game avg
@Packers & @Panthers both TOP TEN penalized teams for PRE-SNAP infractions
Novak No.1 for OFFENSIVE HOLDING & top 5 for FALSE START
The #Panthers have struggled w' OFF-HOLD, as have GB. But the Packers issues in this category have been on the road, they are much better at home
GB No.1 for ROUGHING THE PASSER & Carolina co-rank as the second highest penalized team in this category but the Panthers also rank second overall as a BENEFICIARY of these calls, whereas GB ranks last
UNNECESSARY ROUGHNESS gets called at a higher rate on PRIMETIME
Novak's crew LEAD the #NFL in this category
I detailed some of the historically high AUTOMATIC 1ST DOWNS via penalty w' GB in 2026 earlier in the week
Novak's crew calling an above avg rate of penalties in this category, primarily via the aforementioned unn-roughness
Those are some key points & I could add more but want to keep it brief
Clearly, discipline will be paramount when navigating this crew & whoever is less penalized has an advantage
The Panthers are a roller-coaster team w' no consistency. Off that embarrassing performance Sunday they likely bounce back here
GB is seemingly in a down to the wire game each week & they have had some terrible officiating go against them late in games
Ultimately, its in the leagues & #TNFonPrime interests for these games to be close late & 6 of the 7 games officiated by Novak in 2026 have been one possession contests
This feels no different, so a lean to Panthers +3.5 pts in a higher scoring 27-24 type contest
#KeepPounding #GoPackGo
William Eugene retweeted
Anyone looking for tickets for Thursday night? I know of a handful of available.
4 together. 2 together. Club Seats. You name it, I can probably find some if you're looking.
William Eugene retweeted
It took just nine snaps for the Packers to lose their top two options at center against Detroit.
Enter John Williams, who made his NFL regular-season debut Sunday under challenging circumstances.
That & more in the latest edition of "The Takeaway." Link below.
Just beat Carolina.
Playoffs?!? (in Jim Mora voice)
Here are the latest standings and probabilities for the Packers.
si.com/nfl/packers/onsi/late…
William Eugene retweeted
Brian Branch doesn't even attempt to make a tackle here
Just leaps helmet first right into Tucker Kraft's head as he's already being tackled
Dirty play by a dirty player
William Eugene retweeted
In my 19 years covering the Packers on a daily basis, I've never written a blame-the-refs story. Yeah, I get it, the Packers beat themselves, too, but what happened at Ford Field was unaccepable, an embarrassment and, to quote Xavier McKinney, bullshit. ⬇️
si.com/nfl/packers/onsi/xavi…
Good to know I’m not losing it. At least the refs can take us out to a nice meal before they fuck us.
Green Bay Packers 2026 penalty numbers, specifically on all-important THIRD DOWN plays & in the FOURTH QTR of games
The #Packers lead the #NFL in 4TH qtr penalty per game avg, recording historically high numbers in this category
Compounding that, the @packers have off-the-charts numbers surrendering AUTOMATIC 1ST DOWNS via penalty on THIRD DOWN plays (& primarily in the 4th qtr)
None of this is news to Green Bay players/coaches or fans
Three games in particular this season (@Vikings @Lions & vs Cowboys) were beyond ridiculous w' officiating in the 4th qtr of those contests
There are many numbers I can detail going back two decades but ill use 2021/2025 five-yr data as comparison to highlight the statistical improbablity of the 2026 stats
Green Bay is surrendering 1.71 AUTOMATIC 1ST DOWNS per game on THIRD DOWN
To put that in perspective, over the past 5 seasons the next highest avg in this category is the 2023 Titans (0.94 per game) & the 2021 #Bills at 0.89 per game
GB is averaging almost DOUBLE per game of the next highest penalized team over past 5 seasons in this category
In the FOURTH QTR, Green Bay is surrendering 1.29 AUTOMATIC 1ST DOWNS via penalty in 2026
The next closest to that the past five seasons is the 2024 Commanders at 0.90 per 4th qtr
The bulk of Packers ROUGHING THE PASSER & UNNECESSARY ROUGHNESS & ILLEGAL CONTACT penalties have occurred in the 4th qtr (see clip #GBvsMIN Week 1 w' Shawn Hochuli)
For the record im not a Packers fan, just someone that studies data
But I watch every game & the officiating in some GB contests this season has been diabolical late
The general response is "just play better" so a bad call or calls have no impact on the final outcome
That sounds great & im sure every team would love to be ahead 50-0 in the 4th so an atrocious UNNECESSARY ROUGHNESS penalty has zero impact
But the fact is most games come down to the final 10 mins & if you're on the wrong end of bad calls in the 4th qtr & particularly on 3rd down, its near impossible to overcome
Its up to Matt LaFleur & Packers hierarchy to inform @NFLOfficiating & start calling out the one-sided numbers
The positive would be these numbers can't continue indefinitely & GB does have 6 more games at Lambeau Field, where they historically have received better treatment
#GoPackGo
William Eugene retweeted
Green Bay Packers 2026 penalty numbers, specifically on all-important THIRD DOWN plays & in the FOURTH QTR of games
The #Packers lead the #NFL in 4TH qtr penalty per game avg, recording historically high numbers in this category
Compounding that, the @packers have off-the-charts numbers surrendering AUTOMATIC 1ST DOWNS via penalty on THIRD DOWN plays (& primarily in the 4th qtr)
None of this is news to Green Bay players/coaches or fans
Three games in particular this season (@Vikings @Lions & vs Cowboys) were beyond ridiculous w' officiating in the 4th qtr of those contests
There are many numbers I can detail going back two decades but ill use 2021/2025 five-yr data as comparison to highlight the statistical improbablity of the 2026 stats
Green Bay is surrendering 1.71 AUTOMATIC 1ST DOWNS per game on THIRD DOWN
To put that in perspective, over the past 5 seasons the next highest avg in this category is the 2023 Titans (0.94 per game) & the 2021 #Bills at 0.89 per game
GB is averaging almost DOUBLE per game of the next highest penalized team over past 5 seasons in this category
In the FOURTH QTR, Green Bay is surrendering 1.29 AUTOMATIC 1ST DOWNS via penalty in 2026
The next closest to that the past five seasons is the 2024 Commanders at 0.90 per 4th qtr
The bulk of Packers ROUGHING THE PASSER & UNNECESSARY ROUGHNESS & ILLEGAL CONTACT penalties have occurred in the 4th qtr (see clip #GBvsMIN Week 1 w' Shawn Hochuli)
For the record im not a Packers fan, just someone that studies data
But I watch every game & the officiating in some GB contests this season has been diabolical late
The general response is "just play better" so a bad call or calls have no impact on the final outcome
That sounds great & im sure every team would love to be ahead 50-0 in the 4th so an atrocious UNNECESSARY ROUGHNESS penalty has zero impact
But the fact is most games come down to the final 10 mins & if you're on the wrong end of bad calls in the 4th qtr & particularly on 3rd down, its near impossible to overcome
Its up to Matt LaFleur & Packers hierarchy to inform @NFLOfficiating & start calling out the one-sided numbers
The positive would be these numbers can't continue indefinitely & GB does have 6 more games at Lambeau Field, where they historically have received better treatment
#GoPackGo
William Eugene retweeted
Q3 7:46 | Questionable Unnecessary Roughness, D.Wyatt | 12 yds:
Turned 2nd & 11 at GB 27 into 1st & 10 at GB 11. Lions score a TD 2 plays later.
Q3 6:40 | Questionable no-call, Illegal Block in the Back, P.Sewell | Not called:
Goff to J.Williams for a 10-yd TD. Lions take a 17-14 lead.
Q3 4:13 | Questionable no-call, Intentional Grounding, J.Goff | Not called:
2nd & 10 at DET 48. Goff throws it away with no receiver in the area. No flag, no loss of down.
Q3 4:09 | Questionable Roughing the Passer, B.Cox | 15 yds:
Very next play. A 3rd & 10 incompletion gets wiped out. Lions get a free 1st down at GB 37.
Q3 1:57 | Questionable DPI, B.Cisse | 8 yds:
Erased a Cisse INT at the GB 11. Lions get 1st & 10 at GB 11. Defense still gets the 4th down stop at the 6.
Q4 15:00 | Questionable Intentional Grounding, J. Love | 11 yds:
1st & 10 at GB 19 becomes 2nd & 21 at GB 8. Love throws an INT 2 plays later.
Q4 2:45 | Questionable Roughing the Passer, K.Brooks | 15 yds:
Tacked onto an 18-yd catch on the final drive. Lions go from their own 27 to the GB 40 in one play.
Q4 1:08 | Questionable no-call, Taunting, DET offense | Not called:
Gibbs runs 8 yds to the GB 3 on 3rd & 6 for the game’s last 1st down. The whole offense taunts. No flag. Goff kneels, Bates hits a 22-yd FG at :01.
Lions 20, Packers 17.
William Eugene retweeted
Often find Packers fans some of the worst on here when it comes to complaining about refs but yeah y’all can tee off on this one
William Eugene retweeted
Karl Brooks protested to Moore about a hold on first down.
Wanna guess what happened on the next play?
Roughing the passer on Brooks.
