Storm chaser and photographer. Live-tweeting random thoughts of the day. Building @chase_archive

CA ➡️ CO ➡️ OK
Joined July 2008
Still can't believe this happened. Still can't believe this is a photo I took. 📍Wellfleet, NE 6/16/25
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🌪️ Another tornado in New Mexico!! This one was just south of Shiprock Sunday afternoon. You can even see Shiprock at the beginning of the video! 📹 Katie Tache @NWSAlbuquerque #NMwx
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Here’s a better photo of the tornado near Shiprock. Wish someone got a photo of the tornado with Shiprock itself!
There were also funnel clouds reported near Shiprock. I'm confident about this one given multiple reports and look of radar near that time.
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Ope correction: this was taken today not yesterday! Wonder if I would’ve stuck around for this today given how much i was keying in on yesterday’s threat
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Update: this look like it occurred very close to Shiprock Airport, based on the first photo in my third tweet in this thread, which shows 491 SB looking towards Table Mesa (reposted in this tweet)
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I think I just spotted an El Niño fan in the wild…
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This weather with 0 wind chill is lowkey peak
Coming soon to a neighbourhood near you
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🚨🚨🚨 NEW SHOW ALERT 🚨🚨🚨 @wxmann breaks down the storm chasing forecast for Sunday, October 25th. Watch here 👇 buff.ly/FHeVHjT
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There were also funnel clouds reported near Shiprock. I'm confident about this one given multiple reports and look of radar near that time.
Apparently there were some landspouts today in the Navajo Rez just south of Monument Valley. Environment certainly was favorable for cold-core magic (I was close to pulling the trigger on this)... not 100% sure of the veracity of this but would not be surprised if it was legit.
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Apparently there were some landspouts today in the Navajo Rez just south of Monument Valley. Environment certainly was favorable for cold-core magic (I was close to pulling the trigger on this)... not 100% sure of the veracity of this but would not be surprised if it was legit.
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TOTY in June 2027, inshallah
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Three year anniversary of one of my most well-aged tweets of all time It's always the ones you don't think about too much and just tweet out of vibes
It’s October 24th, 2023. A small storm named Otis has been upgraded to a Hurricane, but further strengthening is forecast to be limited. He should pass to the W of Acapulco as a CAT 1 and make landfall tomorrow night. Doesn’t look like conditions in the city will be too severe.
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Jim Tang retweeted
For fuck’s sake
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FWIW, TC landfalls in Japan on/after the last week of October are exceedingly rare. Only 3 in a 70-year history, and the dropoff begins on Oct 1. This time of year, the Asian NE monsoon typically strips TC's before they can get as far north/west as Japan. That should've been the red flag re: the Deepmind solutions for Champi.
Are GDMs Working Right? : On 18z Oct 19 as well it is clear GDM FNV3 accounted for Taiwan, whereas Physics-based models did not, note every single output differentiates farther West, this + West shift slowly is why synoptically and mesoscale GDMs demonstrated TC Env.
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Anyway I called this out a few days ago before doing the statistical analysis. At the end of the day, it looks like a scenario between the dynamical and ML guidance ended up being the right call! xitter.cf/wxmann/status/21122404…
The track forecast for #Champi is fascinating. On one hand, it's hard to imagine this 500mb pattern without a recurvature, and Google Deepmind explicitly forecasts this. On the other hand, if Champi wanders too close to Taiwan, rapid weakening from the surge of stable postfrontal northerlies and land interaction, and lee cyclone development in the Taiwan Strait will force the track west. This is kind of oddball dynamical situation I could see the physics-based guidance handling better than machine-learning guidance. Hard to bet against the GFS/ECMWF consensus <5 days out. Whatever happens, it'll be a good test of physics vs. AI in a challenging forecast situation!
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You know 2026 is whack when all this controversy's going on for a tornado event in Arizona of all places
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If you drove west to east across WY on 6/12/17 you would've gone from near-freezing at Evanston... to 80's in Rawlins... to tornadic supercells once you approached the NE border. (An update of Chase Archive I'm still working on backfilling, but I thought this was super cool)
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