
Storm chaser and photographer. Live-tweeting random thoughts of the day. Building @chase_archive
CA ➡️ CO ➡️ OK
Joined July 2008
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Still can't believe this happened. Still can't believe this is a photo I took.
📍Wellfleet, NE 6/16/25
Jim Tang retweeted
🌪️ Another tornado in New Mexico!!
This one was just south of Shiprock Sunday afternoon. You can even see Shiprock at the beginning of the video!
📹 Katie Tache
@NWSAlbuquerque #NMwx
Jim Tang retweeted
🚨🚨🚨 NEW SHOW ALERT 🚨🚨🚨
@wxmann breaks down the storm chasing forecast for Sunday, October 25th.
Watch here 👇
buff.ly/FHeVHjT
There were also funnel clouds reported near Shiprock. I'm confident about this one given multiple reports and look of radar near that time.
Apparently there were some landspouts today in the Navajo Rez just south of Monument Valley. Environment certainly was favorable for cold-core magic (I was close to pulling the trigger on this)... not 100% sure of the veracity of this but would not be surprised if it was legit.
Three year anniversary of one of my most well-aged tweets of all time
It's always the ones you don't think about too much and just tweet out of vibes
FWIW, TC landfalls in Japan on/after the last week of October are exceedingly rare. Only 3 in a 70-year history, and the dropoff begins on Oct 1.
This time of year, the Asian NE monsoon typically strips TC's before they can get as far north/west as Japan.
That should've been the red flag re: the Deepmind solutions for Champi.
Anyway I called this out a few days ago before doing the statistical analysis. At the end of the day, it looks like a scenario between the dynamical and ML guidance ended up being the right call!
xitter.cf/wxmann/status/21122404…
The track forecast for #Champi is fascinating. On one hand, it's hard to imagine this 500mb pattern without a recurvature, and Google Deepmind explicitly forecasts this.
On the other hand, if Champi wanders too close to Taiwan, rapid weakening from the surge of stable postfrontal northerlies and land interaction, and lee cyclone development in the Taiwan Strait will force the track west. This is kind of oddball dynamical situation I could see the physics-based guidance handling better than machine-learning guidance. Hard to bet against the GFS/ECMWF consensus <5 days out.
Whatever happens, it'll be a good test of physics vs. AI in a challenging forecast situation!





























