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Josh Downs is one of the better slot receivers in the NFL and will 100% produce in the right environment
Is a 5th a steal, too much, or just right?
Josh Downs has zero touchdowns this season and just asked out of Indianapolis.
The Steelers want him anyway. The Chiefs might too.
I grade every NFL deadline trade like a deal, and this one I priced before it happens. I used to work at Robinhood. Pricing assets was the job.
THE ASSET
25 years old. 2023 third round pick.
26 catches, 307 yards, 0 TDs. Career low 56.5% catch rate.
Best season: 803 yards in 2024.
His contract ends after this year. He's a rental.
His response to the request: "I'm open to whatever."
THE BUYERS
Pittsburgh. Interested, per Jordan Schultz. Rodgers' offense ranks 20th in passing yards per game.
Kansas City. Rashee Rice is hurt and Tyquan Thornton is on IR. ESPN lists Downs as a fit.
Schultz says a deal isn't likely this week, but a trade is expected eventually.
THE COMPARABLE
In finance, you price an asset against similar ones. Jerry Jeudy is another receiver linked to the Chiefs. ESPN isn't sure even a 4th would get him, and the Browns aren't shopping him.
Downs has fewer yards, an expiring deal and a trade request. He's worth less.
MY PRICE: A 5TH
The Colts have no leverage. If a buyer pays a 4th or more, they get a C. A 5th or less, an A.
Steelers or Chiefs, where should he land?
Follow for the grade the day he moves.
ππΈπ²π·π½ retweeted
They got their value out of these guys, both Colts legends, but I think they sold too quickly before they could get better offers
What do you think?
The Colts sold two Pro Bowlers in one afternoon.
They got back a third, a fourth and a fifth.
I used to work at Robinhood. Pricing deals was the job. So until the November 10 deadline, I'm grading every NFL trade like one.
TRADE GRADES #1 AND #2
QUENTON NELSON TO SEATTLE
Six time All Pro. Pro Bowl in all eight of his seasons.
Indy gets: a 2027 third and a 2028 fifth.
DEFOREST BUCKNER TO SAN FRANCISCO
Three time Pro Bowler. The Colts paid the 13th overall pick for him in 2020.
Indy gets: a 2027 fourth.
The fine print: both contracts end after this season. Keep them and they likely walk in March.
Seattle: A. Their run game ranks 23rd. Not anymore.
San Francisco: A minus. A proven pass rusher for a fourth.
Indianapolis: B minus. Selling rentals is smart. Turning a 13th pick into a fourth still stings.
The Colts are 2 and 5, fired their GM and have no 2027 first. This isn't a reset. It's a teardown.
Is Jonathan Taylor next?
Every deadline trade gets graded here. Follow for #3.
They got their value out of these guys, both Colts legends, but I think they sold too quickly before they could get better offers
What do you think?
The Colts sold two Pro Bowlers in one afternoon.
They got back a third, a fourth and a fifth.
I used to work at Robinhood. Pricing deals was the job. So until the November 10 deadline, I'm grading every NFL trade like one.
TRADE GRADES #1 AND #2
QUENTON NELSON TO SEATTLE
Six time All Pro. Pro Bowl in all eight of his seasons.
Indy gets: a 2027 third and a 2028 fifth.
DEFOREST BUCKNER TO SAN FRANCISCO
Three time Pro Bowler. The Colts paid the 13th overall pick for him in 2020.
Indy gets: a 2027 fourth.
The fine print: both contracts end after this season. Keep them and they likely walk in March.
Seattle: A. Their run game ranks 23rd. Not anymore.
San Francisco: A minus. A proven pass rusher for a fourth.
Indianapolis: B minus. Selling rentals is smart. Turning a 13th pick into a fourth still stings.
The Colts are 2 and 5, fired their GM and have no 2027 first. This isn't a reset. It's a teardown.
Is Jonathan Taylor next?
Every deadline trade gets graded here. Follow for #3.
ππΈπ²π·π½ retweeted
Philly is on a deep decline and itβs no oneβs fault except the coaching staff and upper management
Two years ago the Eagles won the Super Bowl.
Tonight they're missing their QB, their top two receivers and their right tackle.
I used to work at Robinhood. Now I build NFL models, grade every pick in public, and I'm about to make the whole model free. Last week: 8 and 5.
My forecast had Philadelphia by 0.15 this morning. A coin flip.
Then I did the injury check I promised yesterday.
Jalen Hurts: injured reserve.
DeVonta Smith: out.
Dontayvion Wicks: out.
Lane Johnson: retired.
Saquon Barkley: questionable after missing two straight.
The pick flips. Dallas over Philadelphia.
But not by much. Vegas has Dallas by 4.5. I think Dallas wins by a field goal, not a touchdown. Philly's backups keep it closer than people expect.
Is this the end of the Eagles era, or does Philly shock everyone tonight?
Graded tomorrow. Follow so you don't miss the model when it goes live.
Philly is on a deep decline and itβs no oneβs fault except the coaching staff and upper management
Two years ago the Eagles won the Super Bowl.
Tonight they're missing their QB, their top two receivers and their right tackle.
I used to work at Robinhood. Now I build NFL models, grade every pick in public, and I'm about to make the whole model free. Last week: 8 and 5.
My forecast had Philadelphia by 0.15 this morning. A coin flip.
Then I did the injury check I promised yesterday.
Jalen Hurts: injured reserve.
DeVonta Smith: out.
Dontayvion Wicks: out.
Lane Johnson: retired.
Saquon Barkley: questionable after missing two straight.
The pick flips. Dallas over Philadelphia.
But not by much. Vegas has Dallas by 4.5. I think Dallas wins by a field goal, not a touchdown. Philly's backups keep it closer than people expect.
Is this the end of the Eagles era, or does Philly shock everyone tonight?
Graded tomorrow. Follow so you don't miss the model when it goes live.
ππΈπ²π·π½ retweeted
Aaron Rodgers is the greatest QB talent ever and thereβs no doubt about that.
If Aaron Rodgers passes Drew Brees next year, he's a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. Not close.
He's 42. He just passed Peyton today, in Paris. I used to work at Robinhood, so naturally I ran the math on the rest of the list.
Brady: 649
Brees: 571
Rodgers: 540
Manning: 539
The record breaker was a 4 yard fade to Darnell Washington in the first NFL game ever played in France. 19 of 30, 212 yards, no picks. Steelers win 16 to 10.
(My model had Pittsburgh this morning.)
THE MATH
Rodgers has 13 TDs through 7 games. About 1.9 per game.
Brees is 31 away. At this pace he finishes the year around 559. He'd need one more season and about 13 more TDs.
Brady is 109 away. That's roughly three more full seasons. He'd have to play until he's 46.
Brady retired at 45.
Brady's record is safe. Brees's isn't. And the moment Rodgers passes him, the Peyton debate is over.
Tell me why I'm wrong.
I post the numbers every week and grade myself every Monday. Follow if you want to see who was right.
Aaron Rodgers is the greatest QB talent ever and thereβs no doubt about that.
If Aaron Rodgers passes Drew Brees next year, he's a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. Not close.
He's 42. He just passed Peyton today, in Paris. I used to work at Robinhood, so naturally I ran the math on the rest of the list.
Brady: 649
Brees: 571
Rodgers: 540
Manning: 539
The record breaker was a 4 yard fade to Darnell Washington in the first NFL game ever played in France. 19 of 30, 212 yards, no picks. Steelers win 16 to 10.
(My model had Pittsburgh this morning.)
THE MATH
Rodgers has 13 TDs through 7 games. About 1.9 per game.
Brees is 31 away. At this pace he finishes the year around 559. He'd need one more season and about 13 more TDs.
Brady is 109 away. That's roughly three more full seasons. He'd have to play until he's 46.
Brady retired at 45.
Brady's record is safe. Brees's isn't. And the moment Rodgers passes him, the Peyton debate is over.
Tell me why I'm wrong.
I post the numbers every week and grade myself every Monday. Follow if you want to see who was right.
ππΈπ²π·π½ retweeted
I honestly donβt know how insane the 49ers are or how bad the Falcons are because how is the niners predicted to win with their whole team deadπ
I used to work at Robinhood. Now I build NFL models for fun and test them in public.
Yesterday I spent all day defending Baker Mayfield. Today my model picked against him.
Thursday: Chicago. Correct.
All 12 Sunday winners are in the reply.
THE SUNDAY FILM ROOM: WEEK 7
Three games I'm watching.
β
CAROLINA over TAMPA BAY
Both forecasts have Carolina, by almost 5. The last time Baker played, he got sacked 6 times and hit 12 times. Now he's back without his starting right tackle and without Egbuka. I still think Baker isn't the problem. The spreadsheet doesn't care what I think.
β
CLEVELAND over TENNESSEE
The two forecasts split on this one. Combined, Cleveland by 0.05 points. Both also have it as the lowest scoring game of the week. That's not a pick. That's a coin with a slight lean. The last time I called a coin flip that leaned Cleveland, the Jets won by 5. I'm doing it again anyway.
β
SAN FRANCISCO over ATLANTA
Both forecasts like the Niners. Both were also set before Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel got ruled out. That's two of Purdy's top targets gone in one afternoon. I'm sticking with it, but this is the one most likely to make me look dumb on Monday.
These are baseline forecasts, not a full injury rerun. Monday, every call gets graded. The bad ones stay up too.
Which of these three falls apart first?
I honestly donβt know how insane the 49ers are or how bad the Falcons are because how is the niners predicted to win with their whole team deadπ
I used to work at Robinhood. Now I build NFL models for fun and test them in public.
Yesterday I spent all day defending Baker Mayfield. Today my model picked against him.
Thursday: Chicago. Correct.
All 12 Sunday winners are in the reply.
THE SUNDAY FILM ROOM: WEEK 7
Three games I'm watching.
β
CAROLINA over TAMPA BAY
Both forecasts have Carolina, by almost 5. The last time Baker played, he got sacked 6 times and hit 12 times. Now he's back without his starting right tackle and without Egbuka. I still think Baker isn't the problem. The spreadsheet doesn't care what I think.
β
CLEVELAND over TENNESSEE
The two forecasts split on this one. Combined, Cleveland by 0.05 points. Both also have it as the lowest scoring game of the week. That's not a pick. That's a coin with a slight lean. The last time I called a coin flip that leaned Cleveland, the Jets won by 5. I'm doing it again anyway.
β
SAN FRANCISCO over ATLANTA
Both forecasts like the Niners. Both were also set before Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel got ruled out. That's two of Purdy's top targets gone in one afternoon. I'm sticking with it, but this is the one most likely to make me look dumb on Monday.
These are baseline forecasts, not a full injury rerun. Monday, every call gets graded. The bad ones stay up too.
Which of these three falls apart first?
Andre Drummond went to the Knicks and turned into Prime Shaq while Bronze went to the Sixers and turned into Tobias Harris
#levels
ππΈπ²π·π½ retweeted
Andre Drummond went to the Knicks and turned into Prime Shaq while Bronze went to the Sixers and turned into Tobias Harris
#levels