Football analytics. Building https://teapawt.net/t.co/Oyr4QDqXJA (@DumbleScoreLabs). Dixon-Coles models across many leagues. Data over narratives. 25% off first month: X25
Joined March 2026
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Nick Verschuren is a defensive force. He leads the Eredivisie with 51 blocked shots for FC Volendam. That's an incredible 2.22 per game. No one else comes close to his shot-blocking prowess. The data shows his immense impact. ๐ฅ
West Ham v Leeds FA Cup. Model xG of 2.38-2.18 points to a high-scoring affair. Over 2.5 goals probability is 83%. The market lags significantly at just 49%. This 34% probability gap is an extreme misread. Goals are undervalued.
xpectedRoger โฝ ๐ retweeted
Amazing performance yesterday!
Check yesterday's stats in the link below โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ
Atlรฉtico Madrid is severely undervalued against Barcelona. The market implies a 32% win probability for Atleti, but the numbers show 43%. This 11% gap is significant. With an xG of 1.91 vs 1.65, Atleti has the edge. Expect them to capitalize.
Antonio Blanco of @Alaves has been dribbled past a league-high 48 times in La Liga this season. That's 2.09 times per game over 23 appearances. The data suggests opponents are consistently targeting his flank. Is he the weak link in their defense? ๐โฝ๏ธ
xpectedRoger โฝ ๐ retweeted
Italy misses their third straight World Cup.
Welcome to the Swamp of Sadness.
Who's winning the World Cup? Wrong answers only.
I'll start: England. ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
#Italy #WorldCup2026 #NeverendingStory
Italy misses their third straight World Cup.
Welcome to the Swamp of Sadness.
Who's winning the World Cup? Wrong answers only.
I'll start: England. ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
#Italy #WorldCup2026 #NeverendingStory
Chief Architect @B_Fernandes8 ๐ซก
xpectedRoger โฝ ๐ retweeted
Bruno Fernandes is the Premier League's chief architect. He has created 74 chances for Manchester United this season. That's 3.52 opportunities per game. The data shows an elite creative output in the engine room. ๐ฅ
Leaving the European Continent for the first time! ๐ฅณ
First game in Argentina analysed.
We just added 5 new competitions to DumbleScore:
- Liga Profesional de Futbol (Argentina)
- Serie A (Brazil)
- Major League Soccer (USA)
- Saudi Pro League (Saudi Arabia)
- International Friendlies
Full coverage: xG predictions, value detection, lineups, player stats, head-to-head -- same depth as Premier League or Bundesliga.
These leagues are in an experimental phase for now. Results won't count towards our tracked performance until we're confident in the data quality.
More leagues, more edges.
Despite high expectations for a Dortmund win, @DumbleScoreLabs indicates this won't be a goal fest. Our model, citing HSV's 0.76 attack rating and Dortmund's strong defense, forecasts fewer than four goals in total.
teapawt.net/DumbleScoreLabs/statusโฆ
Everyone expects Dortmund to roll over HSV tonight. And yes, our model puts their win probability at 58%. But don't count on a goal fest. HSV's attack rating sits at a dismal 0.76. Dortmund's defense is also rock solid, conceding less than the league average. We see fewer than 4 goals.
Full analysis below โฌ๏ธ