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I may find @elonmusk callous, insensitive, even extremely cruel (& non-nuanced), but I root for him & pray for his safety.
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Called the bottom when everyone was shitting their pants on Apr 6
Called the top when everyone turned bullish, foaming at the mouth
GOAT
@xtrends
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Trump's new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent:
"We are going to decide whether we are going to grow our way out of this debt burden, and I think we can, through deregulation, energy independence & dominance in the US, and a growth mindset. I feel very strongly that this is the last chance to grow ourselves out of this."
Sounds great for future America but not for risk assets overall... Say bye bye to deficit and gov spending that created this decades long enormous bubble.
There will be a transition period which may take year(s) and risk assets will suffer greatly. Undoing decades long policy mistakes will have a price. And remember outliers revert with velocity.
Did market know what was coming ? I absolutely think so. Otherwise why growth stocks would suffer since Trump's lead in polls.
You see, Bessent talks about bringing growth back but ironically growth stocks are underperforming. Why? Because the market knows that without deficit spending, bubble will burst. And as always hot money / smart money is now leaving high beta growth names before major market turn. They always lead.
While I have doubts that Trump administration and new Treasury Secretary do as they say, if they do, it will be great for the future America but during the transition period, the bubble will burst with velocity
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In bear markets automatic moves like end of quarter buying are gift for bears. They (sheeplie fund managers) essentially transfer customers' funds to bears. We shall see what will happen later this week
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After the coming washout, majority will be convinced of a bear market but at that time, there wont be any short term sellers left due to the washout, hence vicious bear market rally will start during which whoever turned bearish at the bottom will be wipe out .
Make no mistake, only the best will survive in the end. This is what bear markets are for. Incompetent corporations, investors, traders are eliminated
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Still no correlation no fear nothing, dip buying is rampant which means capitulation will be epic
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Israel is now talking about a significant response to Iran’s attack.
Like I said, they needed an excuse to launch a war and they got what they wanted .
Who will benefit from this most? Russia, China and US neocons.
Remember Russia has S400 systems all over in Syria but still allowed Israel to hit Syrian and Iranian targets inside Syria because another war front for US in ME will relive Russia in Ukraine
Meanwhile another war in ME will also allow US neocons consolidate power and take control again
China? Well this is a dream come true situation. Possibilities are endless. The most obvious one is of course easy Taiwan invasion
I think Israel will first occupy Lebanon then spread into Syria. Wont launch a campaign against Iran but keep hitting Iranian targets in the region.
US and Israel will continue using ISIS and PKK Kurdish terrorist organizations to destabilize Turkey, Syria , Iraq and Iran to open operation field for Israel in northern Syria.
Ultimate goal is a new greater Israel occupying parts of Syria and Turkey . And a puppet Kurdish satellite state occupying parts of Iraq Iran Turkey and Syria next to new Israel , serving US and Israel interests . Of course this new map is also what was described in Torah. So yeah, the world is once again at the mercy of a few religious lunatics at this very moment
I usually dont talk geopolitics here but as an ex-air force who worked in various nato bases in ME, I have inside info on this and I must say there was never a time like this that can significantly change your way of life and finances in a very short time in recent history.
Fasten your seatbelts , this one is different
Replying to @xtrends
So market's assumption that any Iranian attack will be a temporary event for looks and show is deeply faulty.
It is not the Iran , it is the other parties that are looking for an excuse to start a war and Iran can make that mistake by giving this excuse this weekend.
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IF you want to survive next 2 years, you need to learn about 70s stagflation.
This time more difficult because
1- Current Debt is not comparable to 70s
2- Rates already 0 and FED policies, if continued, will worsen stagflation
Radical steps needed or there will be a revolution
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$BTC has been around 60K since mid-Feb, certainly not moving as it used to be, became a crowded trade for an expensive coin. So FOMO is gone. When FOMO is gone, no more new suckers feeding the pyramid schema. When no more new suckers, pyramid collapses on its own weight.
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That loud sound you hear is coming from the steamroller that is currently warming up for AAPL
massive crater coming into the year end
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This is important for the general market because tops are process
they first kill these small caps and speculative names and weakness propagates towards the megacaps. It may take months for SPX to put the final top .
I think they will go after midcaps in December next
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Replying to @BKLNYCUI
No it is not over in long term but aggressive FED will cause unrepeatable damage at this stage. The bear market will continue based on weakening economy and fundamentals which will naturally kill inflation in time. Deflationary bear market will continue months later
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Replying to @ZapoTRX
yes I think BTC is at the yellow circle, tagging the neckline ... There may be one last bear market rally before complete annihilation begins.
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Now this geyser sell off I called this week will end in a few days, it is terminal , therefore price will get ungodly oversold but once it prints a low in a few days, it will lead to a massive bear market rally, the biggest of all. Late bears will get fucked big time
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The market first killed the frothy garbage, these include SPACs, stocks that issued secondaries with no earnings, money losing growth, debt bloated tech with no earnings etc. These are mostly concentrated in Naz, money shifted into defense and value. This is the initial phase
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Replying to @xtrends @DaveHcontrarian
epic stupidity right here, pure alpha
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