“If my revenue is not $1 trillion, if it’s even $800 billion, there’s no force on Earth, there’s no hedge on Earth that could stop me from going bankrupt if I buy that much compute.”
~Dario Amodei, before signing $600B in compute agreements in 9 months
Go to substack, give me a list of every substack I am subscribed to. Unsubscribe and stop payments for all semiconductor related substacks.
Make no mistakes.
I don’t think throwing polls into an aggregator and putting a linear regression on them is that impressive anymore 🤷♂️
Being able to consistently make money betting on elections is far more impressive. Means you can synthesize all of the data points and draw unique, differentiated insight, not just read poling averages.
I think election markets will always have significant alpha because there’s a huge amount of cope betting on either side.
How many tweets from people who don’t normally bet on politics did you see betting on Ken Paxton?
this is how you make money on prediction markets
Here are my midterm positions:
Not financial advice, don't blindly tail anything
- $160k Becerra CA Gov @ 93.7¢
- $82k Healey MA Gov @ 94.7¢
- $80k Dem House @ 90.5¢
- $60k Hochul NY Gov @ 92.7¢
- $30k in various Dem Senate sweep combos (OH, ME, AK, TX, MI, IA) and $8k in Rep senate combos (W Hedge) all bought when correlation was off
Keeping a good chunk in cash to live buy as more information comes out tonight.
Hoping for a Dem Senate sweep - good luck everyone, and make sure to vote!
Abbott might be value here
An update on Montgomery and for Travis County (hour indicator is broken but it has total day...see image)
Montgomery is short of hitting 2024 Election Day numbers for the first hour (6,400).
It should continue to pick up the pace, but we need to wait and see to confirm that.
I'd say this is good turnout thus far for Montgomery.
Travis is also tracking just below 2024/2022 (11K).
Curtains
Michigan Senate:
🔵 El-Sayed 47% (+1)
🔴 Rogers 46%
@trafalgar_group, 1,087 LV, 10/31-11/1
Weird, I thought circle only froze when they had a court order?
@jerallaire
So much delicious cope I almost wish I was a lib then I could truly relish it
The Dems are flooding prediction markets with bad bets to shift perceptions of reality.
It only would cost $200,000 to change Talarico’s odds from 50 to 67%
That’s a fraction of the 114 million spent on Talaricos campaign and more effective than road signs.
People don’t believe polls but prediction markets create more certainty, because who would throw away money right?
The best we can do is make their marketing stunt as expensive as possible by placing more bets on Paxton and collecting.
Once election results hit the odds will be revealed to have been way off base and the Dems will use it as a call to regulate prediction markets.
Its “crucial flaw” is assuming that billionaires will actually leave California if the wealth tax is passed, despite it being “one time” and retroactive.
Gabriel does not acknowledge that billionaires have already left, nor does he question whether a wealth tax might discourage tech founders from locating in CA in the first place.
To believe in progressive tax policy, one must be willfully ignorant or just low IQ.
This Hoover Institution study, which has fueled the deluge of ads (more than $200 million spent by billionaires so far) to defeat the California billionaire tax, is spectacularly misleading.
Let me explain its crucial flaw. 🧵
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Zucman argues that the tax will raise his projected revenue because billionaires who leave CA after 1/1/26 will be taxed anyway.
At least $542B of net worth (Page, Brin, Thiel) departed the state by 12/31/25.
The entire thread is a misleading denial of this fact.
ft.com/content/d66976…
nytimes.com/2026/04/27/us/…
forbes.com/sites/forbeswe…
Creating a poison and then selling the antidote
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Building off work from @ElectProject, but early vote data looks very strong for Democrats in Maine, similar to what we've seen in other states.
Dems at 85% of 2024 early vote totals compared to 63% for GOP on same day.
