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I’m telling you now. There is a 100% chance that one of these will happen:
A - Biden drops out
B - Biden picks a new VP (who Dems expect to take over soon after Biden’s reelection)
I’ve been saying A since ‘22. Sticking to it. But one or the other? Take it to the bank. 🔒
GOP primary voters should ask themselves what either of these scenarios does for Trump’s GE chances. Trump’s hope for winning is *entirely* premised on the case that Trump was a better president than Biden, and that more people hate Biden than hate Trump. “At least he’s better Biden.”
If Dems replace Biden with a younger, cognitively intact, more popular candidate (remember that LBJ didn’t drop out until March 30), the foundation of Trump’s campaign crumbles. Suddenly a 78 year old, scandal/indictment-plagued Trump with huge negative ratings and who’s a lazy campaigner and inept at debating sets up an easy Dem win in November.
A similar dynamic will apply if Biden picks a popular VP. We all know Biden has no prayer of serving a full 2nd term. A popular VP enables voters to rationalize, “Sure, Biden’s pretty bad. But [VP] will quickly take over, and he/she’s at least better than Trump.”
There’s a *reason* why Dems want Trump nominated. The question is whether GOP voters are foolish enough to walk into their trap.
You’ve been warned. – at Oklahoma City, OK
Zach Allen retweeted
I’m not sure that I have ever seen a more accurate post on this platform.
So, basically, 500 million Europeans expect 300 million Americans to protect them from 120 million Russians who can’t even defeat 40 million Ukrainians while those 500 million Europeans don’t even realize they are being conquered by 2 billion Muslims who claim they are being persecuted by 8 million Israelis. Is that about right?
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Zach Allen retweeted
All fair points. For all the problems with the GOP, the Democrats are still worse on just about every front - moreover, they are unfixably worse. It's all baked into their ideology, identity, & structure as a party.
While I share my friend John's general dismay with the TOP (Trumpy Old Party), and agree that the R's suck because they sound like D's, some pushback is warranted, e.g.
1) Trump may appoint hacks to the bench but no question his appointees are far, far better than any conceivable D's.
2) Trump talked ending the filibuster, but was basically ignored. As far as I can tell, ending filibuster is now mainstream D policy. This is the path to radicalism.
3) Trump is gone in 2 years, 3 mos. Basically everything he did is reversible. What D's are cooking up is unknown but is perhaps irreversible. We should believe them when they say they want to radically change the system.
Zach Allen retweeted
Replying to @Anthonysmdoyle
Zach Allen retweeted
Absolute MADNESS this CFB Saturday 🤯
-Oklahoma UPSETS No. 1 Texas
-No. 2 Georgia survives No. 6 Bama in thriller
-Kentucky UPSETS No. 10 LSU
-South Carolina UPSETS No. 16 Florida
-No. 21 UCLA UPSETS No. 13 Oregon
-North Carolina UPSETS No. 25 Pitt
CHAOS.
What do historical trends say about the upcoming midterm probabilities? Draw your own conclusions.
teapawt.net/i/grok/share/8c4a718e1…

























