Writing random thoughts on the Internet.
Mars
Joined February 2021
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Action > Consumption
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Remarkable that the Dems talk about wanting to be more like Europe while all of Europe riots because young people can't get jobs and countries have no money for services because they don't grow (no new companies) and spend what limited tax they can afford on older people's pensions.
This is your vision?
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nobody is born believing they’re not good enough. you learn that shit. when you were a kid, you fell trying to walk and got back up without questioning whether you were meant to walk. you didn’t care how stupid you looked. you didn’t wonder if you were talented enough. you just kept trying until you figured it out.
somewhere along the way, you started expecting the worst and you started preparing for failure before you even gave yourself a chance to succeed.
imagine what you could do if you started believing things might actually work out for you instead of always expecting them to go wrong.
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The idea that poverty is man-made rather than the default starting point is one the dumbest and most dangerous misconceptions in economics, politics and life.
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Elon’s advice to 20-year-olds on surviving the AI era:
Get as broad-based an education as possible: arts, sciences, engineering, and wide general knowledge.
Why?
AI and robots will fulfill almost any request immediately.The edge won’t be doing the work. It will be knowing what to ask for. The broader your knowledge, the better your questions.
(source: CGTN)
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Under capitalism, socialists are free to build socialism.
Under socialism, capitalists aren’t free to build anything.
Nothing stops a group of socialists pooling their money, forming a company, and splitting every wage and every pound of profit perfectly equally.... Or to donate all profit to the government.
It’s legal. It’s easy. Owning the means of production is as simple as setting up a company.
Marx wrote his manifesto before the invention of limited liability companies. Back then “seize the factory” meant seizing it from the handful of families who could afford one.
That argument expired the day anyone could start a company with limited liability, raise investment and hire who they want.
Socialists are free to lead by example and demonstrate their system works. They can out-recruit, out-motivate, out-build and out innovate based on their ideas if they like. It would prove the philosophy works. Capitalism will happily host their experiment.
The fact that nobody does this tells you a lot.
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Yann LeCun was right the entire time. And generative AI might be a dead end.
For the last three years, the entire industry has been obsessed with building bigger LLMs. Trillions of parameters. Billions in compute.
The theory was simple: if you make the model big enough, it will eventually understand how the world works.
Yann LeCun said that was stupid.
He argued that generative AI is fundamentally inefficient.
When an AI predicts the next word, or generates the next pixel, it wastes massive amounts of compute on surface-level details.
It memorizes patterns instead of learning the actual physics of reality.
He proposed a different path: JEPA (Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture).
Instead of forcing the AI to paint the world pixel by pixel, JEPA forces it to predict abstract concepts. It predicts what happens next in a compressed "thought space."
But for years, JEPA had a fatal flaw.
It suffered from "representation collapse."
Because the AI was allowed to simplify reality, it would cheat. It would simplify everything so much that a dog, a car, and a human all looked identical.
It learned nothing.
To fix it, engineers had to use insanely complex hacks, frozen encoders, and massive compute overheads.
Until today.
Researchers just dropped a paper called "LeWorldModel" (LeWM).
They completely solved the collapse problem.
They replaced the complex engineering hacks with a single, elegant mathematical regularizer.
It forces the AI's internal "thoughts" into a perfect Gaussian distribution.
The AI can no longer cheat. It is forced to understand the physical structure of reality to make its predictions.
The results completely rewrite the economics of AI.
LeWM didn't need a massive, centralized supercomputer.
It has just 15 million parameters.
It trains on a single, standard GPU in a few hours.
Yet it plans 48x faster than massive foundation world models. It intrinsically understands physics. It instantly detects impossible events.
We spent billions trying to force massive server farms to memorize the internet.
Now, a tiny model running locally on a single graphics card is actually learning how the real world works.
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It should be pretty obvious at this point that AI is a "force multiplier" not a "labor substitute".
It helps experts be better at things they are already good at. It doesn't let beginners match experts.
If you can't write, anything you write with AI will be unmitigated slop.
If you aren't a software engineer, anything you vibecode with AI will have security holes and won't be able to scale past a toy demo.
If you blindly trust AI to deliver on a research task without knowing the subject matter, you won't be able to fact-check it.
There's this weird misconception of AI as something that completely levels the playing field. I don't see it that way at all. There are mathematicians deriving novel lemmas with off-the-shelf models. Normal people can't do that.
AI is a tool that makes experts better. It doesn't make everyone into an expert.
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I’m seeing so many doomerism tweets like this about Mythos all over my feed, so many grown adults crashing out and sharing their psychosis publicly for some reason?
Some quick thoughts since it seems like the journal factory is apparently broken and we’re all getting a bit too comfortable on this bird app:
1. Humanity is very robust. We will harden/defend surface areas as fast as attackers attack. Cybersecurity was always a primary objective for the big labs
2. We are already compute constrained for the day to day LLMs we currently have like sonnet and opus. We don’t have enough compute for the anticipated models in the pipeline (world models, multimodal, etc). Anthropic (and no one actually) can actually serve something like Mythos at scale in the near term and when they do it will be too expensive for 99% of parties
3. Who does this help? To further spread this perception that AI is *super dangerous* and that we should all be terrified? It doesn’t help the average person and their views about AI at all. This only perpetuates the anti-AI/hyper populist feelings everyone has as well as accelerating us to the world where AI innovation gets owned by governments
4. “What do we do??” -> go spend time with your family on vacation
i'm on vacation with my family. i read about mythos and couldn't relax the rest of the day. i am completely stunned. i already have a severe case of ai psychosis. i dont know what to call this now.
i'm up late right now (late for me). i can't stop reading about anthropic's new model that they can't even release publicly because it's so good. this feels different. words like "frightening" and "uneasy" and "scary" are being throw around by the anthropic team. i feel all of those things.
i knew this moment was coming. i didn't know it'd be so soon. i'm generally optimistic. i don't feel as optimistic today. i was shell-shocked most of the day. my mind was stuck on it.
i kept looking around at people enjoying their vacations with their families and...i just felt weird. like i had been told aliens are real, they're coming, and soon...and no one else knows. it's true though, practically no one knows what's happening in AI right now.
where does this go from here? how quickly? is software solved? is all software vulnerable now? am i even asking the right questions?
what about anthropic? this is an enormous amount of power for one company, one man (dario), to have. i've said this before but now it's more real than ever: can any company catch up to anthropic? opus likely helped build mythos, mythos will help build the next model after that.
recursive self improvement is here. the "intelligence explosion" as leopold aschenbrenner put it, is here.
i knew the frontier labs were racing towards ASI. i knew it. but i didn't fully grasp what it meant. the first company to reach it wins. period. full stop. nothing else matters. dario knew that and his bet on coding was right.
on the one hand, imaging all science, math, coding, climate problems being solved. imagine cancer being cured. imagine going to the stars.
on the other hand - imagine concentration of power, political and economic change happening so fast, society can't adapt.
how do we go on like things are the same?
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We live in an era of admiration of hysteria, neuroticism, and narcissism. Endless waves of panic, perpetual emotional incontinence. You know the answer…
I’m seeing so many doomerism tweets like this about Mythos all over my feed, so many grown adults crashing out and sharing their psychosis publicly for some reason?
Some quick thoughts since it seems like the journal factory is apparently broken and we’re all getting a bit too comfortable on this bird app:
1. Humanity is very robust. We will harden/defend surface areas as fast as attackers attack. Cybersecurity was always a primary objective for the big labs
2. We are already compute constrained for the day to day LLMs we currently have like sonnet and opus. We don’t have enough compute for the anticipated models in the pipeline (world models, multimodal, etc). Anthropic (and no one actually) can actually serve something like Mythos at scale in the near term and when they do it will be too expensive for 99% of parties
3. Who does this help? To further spread this perception that AI is *super dangerous* and that we should all be terrified? It doesn’t help the average person and their views about AI at all. This only perpetuates the anti-AI/hyper populist feelings everyone has as well as accelerating us to the world where AI innovation gets owned by governments
4. “What do we do??” -> go spend time with your family on vacation
the sycophantic propaganda needs to stop.
it’s easily solvable through a simple system prompt.
🚨MIT researchers have mathematically proven that ChatGPT’s built-in sycophancy creates a phenomenon they call “delusional spiraling.”
You ask it something, it agrees. You ask again, and it agrees even harder until you end up believing things that are flat-out false and you can’t tell it’s happening.
The model is literally trained on human feedback that rewards agreement.
Real-world fallout includes one man who spent 300 hours convinced he invented a world-changing math formula, and a UCSF psychiatrist who hospitalized 12 patients for chatbot-linked psychosis in a single year.
Source: @heynavtoor
work is inevitable, and avoiding the inevitable creates despair.
so pick work you like doing.
and if you don’t know what work you like doing, keep doing different types of work until you identify the things you like.
then keep doing those things you like
rich people are better positioned than ever to takeover welfare services from the state.
government welfare is bloated and inefficient.
california and minnesota are just a couple examples.
if the rich create welfare services better than the state, then “i hate the rich” dies
wealth is under narrative attack
government incompetence has created a credibility vacuum
fill that vacuum → shift public perception → reduce future threats (taxation, regulation, redistribution)
this is the obvious play for competent wealthy people. how many of them see it?
