I caught two rabbits
Joined July 2009
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DAT SUMMER
The DAT trend has taken off since April 2025, boosted by companies like Metaplanet, SBET, and BTBT, with their stocks jumping over 100% in a month.
DAT Summer in 2025 = Defi Summer in 2021
It’s reminiscent of DeFi Summer. Back then, assets like AAVE, CRV, and YFI seemed worthless due to zero-cost farm-and-dump cycles, yet they ended up creating life-changing wealth. I’m sure many of us wondered who was buying them.
As the market grew, we started seeing these coins as fundamental-driven assets, predicting TradFi might step in and value them like stocks. We even thought DeFi could challenge giants like Visa and Mastercard. Price (and maybe time) really shift our perspective.
Disbelief in DAT
In hindsight, those notions seemed far-fetched, much like the current DAT trend, which appears irrational on the surface. I’ve spoken with some clever individuals about the DAT concept, they reckon:
>This market is excessively frothy and unlikely to sustain beyond a month
> A bubble burst could lead to a catastrophic collapse, potentially driving most of these companies into bankruptcy
>Why would anyone invest in treasury companies like SBET when there appears to be little demand for underlying assets such as ETH?
I had the same doubts, but I also recall that irrational market trends can last much longer than anyone expects.
First Large-Scale FLYWHEEL since Defi Summer
This time, we’re seeing the first and only flywheel in this cycle that none of us have cracked the game on yet. We’ve had MEME season, AI season, and a bunch of flashy narratives. These so-called narratives were mostly attention trading games, lasting no more than 3 months, as I mentioned in my pinned post. They were just like:
>When Moodeng went viral on TikTok, someone made a meme, and we’d BUY LOW SELL HIGH.
>When NVDA spiked, we jumped on catch-up plays with TAO & GRASS, BUY LOW SELL HIGH.
>When AI agents trended, a dev launched a Twitter bot and coin, BUY LOW SELL HIGH.
These playbooks, though effective, feel like old wine in new bottles, losing steam as the market adjusts. That's why many of the crypto natives have left us.
"TradFi is buying our bag"
In contrast, the DAT trend introduces a flywheel with the theme “TradFi is buying our bag”.
1. List co. buy token
2. Token price appreciates
3. Lower MNAV
4. Equity price appreciates
5. List co. sell stock via market or CB
6. List co. buy more token
We see a successful flywheel that has attracted multi-billions of dollars in capital flowing from equity markets into crypto. This marks a significant shift from the 2022–2024 period, when crypto bled while stocks soared. This time is different.
I’m not sure how long this game will last, but for now, alts not yet picked up by public companies could be the next big thing.
The road ahead is unclear, but DAT pushes us to stay open-minded, adapt to the market’s changes, and see today’s doubts as tomorrow’s opportunities. Cheers.
How come everyone on my timeline looks so excited for ZEC going down
I already feel a hated rally is brewing (not that soon tho)
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I'm not looking at the forward P/E because it won't tell you anything for trading
But when you see:
1. RSI drop to the lowest level in the past 5 yrs
2. Huge volume of selling climax for 2 days
3. 4-5x ATR to moving average
4. Price approaching to the Iran war low
And here comes with a positive news, I guess it's not a bad idea to do a mean reversal here
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With hardware companies aka semi no longer in spotlight due to the climate chanegs, I think we should prepare for the next move instead of being Dr. Doom by crying over our losing positions or cheering about being sidelined
Of course, market crashes like 1987, 2000, or 2022 can happen again, but full-blown bear markets happen much less frequently than you expect. You think they happen frequently because they catch your attention and you forget all the times when they don't
What do you think the AI story will turn into?
Situation A - More ppl think in this way but unlikely to happen imo
> Dems stop the new buildout of data centre. AI development stops. Hedge funds unwind their AI positions. GDP growth slows down. Long bleeding for more than 6 months.
Situation B - More likely to happen imo
> Compute becomes a scarce commodity, much like oil. Hyperscalers operate like nowaday oil giants, pulling in massive cash flows by renting out compute power. They then use that cash for share buybacks or to acquire AI startups.
> Hyperscalers (esp those with -ve cashflow) will have a big relief bounce because the political environment allow them to pause the AI race a bit. It allows them to grow in a healthier and steadier pace.
>Hyperscalers will look for other locations such as Canada or South America to expand the data centre as the compute price keeps going up
> The market will focus more on the utility of AI rather than its infrastructure. Biotech, physical AI and a select group of software stocks (e.g., PLTR) stand to benefit.
What's your thought?
Valuation being cheap (aka low PE) or price being low are rarely a criteria of picking winning stocks in almost all the past cycles
Don’t fall into the value trap
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1. Never underestimate how well those big tech companies can adapt to changes in the environment
2. Never overestimate what the politicians actually deliver on their promises
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To survive the AI cycle in the next few years, the assets that you are picking need to have
> Decent cashflow and low gearing ratio to beat the high borrowing cost
> Stronger future earning growth than inflation (>6%)
> The revenue growth has to be high enough to justify a better r/r than US treasury which has a 18x PE without risk
> Non-cyclical without doubt. That means it has to be the sole supplier in the market
So, what do we have apart from NVDA and TSMC?
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Mockingbird retweeted
It’s becoming clear with where AI is headed the type of infra World is building is going to become crucial, last couple years was focused on distribution for them
Next is integration, then is capitalising and generating real revenue/directing to the token WLD
Over the last 6 years @worldnetwork has been building tools that allow you to prove that who you're interacting with online is a human or an agent acting on their behalf. I've never felt a more pressing need for the products and integrations built e.g. world.org/blog/announcements….
Fun fact: you can 3x your net worth in 20 yrs just by putting your capital into 20Y treasury today
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Performance improved after learning how to use EMA as entry and qullamaggie's way as exit. How qullamaggie exit a parabolic run really gave me a big inspiration though the method is simple af
Going forward i do think the opportunity is in crypto (consensus tho). When the market is rewarding the diamond hands and punishing the swing traders, it's time for us to lock in.
Halfway through 2026
The return is not as good as many those good traders. Still get a lot of stuff to learn in this equity world
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It’s hard not to believe the people trading crypto and the people trading semis are the same group
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Mockingbird retweeted
on @RobinhoodApp
1️⃣ if you like pure meme = $cashcat
2️⃣if you like launchpad = $pons
3️⃣if you like defi innovation = @StonkBrokersApp (options coming),
4️⃣if you like best performing uniswap v4hook, launchpad with twist + RWA = @longdotxyz and @ArtificiallyInu is their go to meme
5️⃣if you like DeFi ponzi games @Quotrons404
if you want to play beta/catch up
6️⃣@bonercoinlong potentially next running on @longdotxyz narrative is first "seqeeze RWA" meme. lore potentially strong. realistically don't seqeeze the stock but just allow arbitrage but its cool
7️⃣@TA_fund something @theunipcs posted a few thesis on @fomo a meme based on Trump's initiative
8️⃣@Hookrfun uniswap v4 hook launchpad
9️⃣@StaticsProtocol
@deltaliquidity @uponrh (least favourite as its just
🔟liquidity/dex management tbh)
[11] @QuantumsHQ new defi ponzi game with uniswap v4 hook,
teapawt.net/2lambro/status/2093983…
Time to lock in updates #4
1️⃣ @Quotrons404 pumping hard, 17m now.
tldr
it's a buy/sell tax token with a twist. the tax buys real tokenized stocks and redistributes them to NFT holders. you burn $QUOTRON to lock in the NFT.
$QUOTRON 0x5a86828efd322bfb16d93cfed16ee9bc14940d7f
🔸 Key shill points
- @orangie shilled it on live with @blknoiz06
- @cryptogle and @OttoSuwen early n hard shill
- dev @cruelhandeth is ink chain main dev that somehow build this (i guess its good for xstocks too) and people are speculating another pump when $ink tokenomics is out and this is a play to get some robinhood attention into @inkonchain chain to.
- somehow the @arjunsethi Kraken CEO QT this too
🔸More detail on how Quotron works
3 moving parts:
[ the tax ] every $QUOTRON buy/sell pays 3%
[ the NFTs ] 4,444 terminals, 4 rarity tiers, each with a different yield weight
[ the payout ] — 2% of every trade gets converted into nvda / tsla / gme and paid out to burned NFTs only
how you get in:
hold 1 whole $QUOTRON token → a terminal NFT (non transferable) appears in your wallet dark. earns nothing.
burn the token → that NFT becomes permanent and starts earning and transferable.
one way door. no un-burn.
the reroll game:
the NFT you rolled is random. keypad 1x, desk 1.5x, quotron 800 2.5x, nasdank 5x. (basically have different yield ability)
mid roll? sell and rebuy to reroll before you lock it in.
so the gacha itself creates the volume. and the volume is the yield.
the loop:
trade → 3% tax → buys stocks → paid to burned NFTs → more people burn → supply shrinks → price moves harder → more trade
🥲 EPIC FAIL me mid curving defi games because i feel like is just a twist and a lot of people are just trading on fomo etc etc but ya i fumbled and i don't want to top blast
2️⃣ $pons going mad from my update #1 position i trimmed 50% aroudn 200m ish thinking i can use to buy more cashcat because i thought $cashcat > $pon but clearly i was wrong lmao. now
i hold 20k ish Pons and 85k ish cashcat and fking 20k ish dumbass eth
3️⃣ Personally looking at ink chain and aped these
0x32bCB803f696C99Eb263D60a05CAfD8689026575
@KrakMask
some nft project with a token. Arjun the CEO of kraken just changed its banner to their nft art thing. i dont' like trading nfts so i aped the coin. its around 1m now
@ANITAONINKCTO
0x0606FC632ee812bA970af72F8489baAa443C4B98
top masscot coin on kraken
mainly aping these because of arjun tweet interaction and rumor of $ink tge detail soon
4️⃣ $microduck went to from 0 to 16m in 2 days
The narrative is from huggingface launching a robot call mircoduck. i think typically this just a quick 1-2 day hold on a small trend so i didnt go in but @fomo founder @seyong was sharing screen on @0xSteadyLads and i think this is how it got more attention n pumped from 5m to 22m basically
5️⃣ my bet from lock in update#1 on @Astrodotmeme bet $XSTX on @XLayerOfficial doing good went from 300k to 1.6m at peak with around 300usd RWA stock yield ish for me.
but fk me @XLayerOfficial infra is so not ready, no dexscreener, no fomo no pumpfun, not sure how will it get more exposure @XLayerOfficial whelp pls
