HolocronCapital

97% probability $SPY crashes at least 10% after June 15. There's 4 massive reasons $SPY can't avoid it: 1. Large IPOs like $SPCX will trigger sell off. Major IPOs drain liquidity. The 1999–2000 dot-com IPO wave pulled $100B+ from markets before $SPY crashed 78%. 2. Kevin Warsh hawkish FOMC on June 17 Hawkish Fed surprises trigger immediate selloffs. In June 2022, a surprise 75bps hike sent SPY down 8.4% in 5 days. 3. $MU $ORCL earnings is the peak of market Semis and enterprise software peak earnings historically signal cycle tops. $MU peaked in June 2018 $SPY followed with a 20% correction by December. 4. Midterm elections for Trump is this year Midterm years average a 17% $SPY drawdown before Q4 recovery. 2022 saw $SPY drop 25% into October before reversing Trump's 2026 midterms follow the same cycle. ♻️ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll share with you my $SPY target for the crash.