911Crypto retweeted
随着今晚PPI数据超预期,目前9月加息概率已经达到了70%,用AI跑了一些历史数据,市场在临近议息会议前夕对美联储最终货币决策的预测正确率,
近十年市场预期和美联储最终决策在方向上准确率100%,细微的差别无非就是幅度和次数的区别,也就是说9月议息会议,加息已经是大概率事情了。
我们不去猜测到底要不要加息,目前市场完全计价美联储年内加息2次,幅度50BP,我们就认定加息是基准情形。
从交易应对策略上,我们要把握两个重点,第一,降息周期中加息,市场会不会大跌?
第二,后续会连续加息吗?还有没有可能降息?
第一个问题,首次加息不会是股市行情终结的信号,只要连续加息才会真正影响到股市,
如果9月加息落地,不一定是利空,本轮加息最好的历史参考就是1999年6月,美联储一次性加息25BP,
当时互联网技术正在快速渗透,经济增长动力强,由于互联网行业具备高增长,高利润、基本面强,资金在加息落地之后,疯狂涌入互联网板块,助推标普500指数在加息首月大涨4.16%
当前AI正在快速渗透,白宫、财政部、美联储领导层在AI层面的共识是一致的,认为AI是提升美国经济增长唯一路径,AI可以说是美国目前的最后的底牌
9月加息主导是油价和通胀,而100的油价不会是常态,油价回落,待通胀回落均值,启动降息,未来AI发展,需要低利率的环境,
因此即使9月加息,未来货币政策仍要回归降息,也就是说不具备连续加息的条件,如果本次市场出现剧烈调整,那这就是黄金坑!!!!
最后分享一下关于对美债的观点,如今美债规模突破40万亿,美债占GDP已经超120%,美债规模问题短期无解
只有两种方法能缓解,一是美联储印钞买债,二是名义GDP分母扩大,当然还有就是赖账不还(概率极低),GDP增长只有AI具备想象力,何况美国已经在梭哈AI的赌桌上了,AI是美国的国运,同样也是某个东方大国的国运。
而在这个过程中,大宗商品的牛市也会跟着来临,美债、美元、AI、黄金各自成为了主角,投资真的是有趣的认知变现!
911Crypto retweeted
我做了一个专门写财经长文的「金融写作 skill」Harness
1. 2万多条花椒的原味推文蒸馏
2. 35轮手动迭代修改
3. 去AI味道 3合一 (dehumanizer + 去ai + 人味)核心规则结合
4. 可以自己多轮迭代 - 自我学习的 「金融人味写作skill」
觉得好用就帮我点个star吧
github.com/yansc153/huajiao-…
911Crypto retweeted
Lots of misinformation being spread about me the last couple days, so some quick facts
- My name is Tina, not Guo Can (or Jessie Anderson). I’m one of many Raptor flight operators on console since flight2. Before that, I wrote control software for the vehicle, and was a stage software operator for flight1
- Been living in Starbase since surborbital days in 2020, absolutely love it down here. The people are wonderful and so so excited about the mission - the lows are lows but the highs are very high. My friends here are the best in the world, and I love them to the moon/mars and back :)
- The reason I decided to say something was because facts matter, but also because wanted to share my real life journey to how I got here. I don’t have a masters or a PhD, I started full time directly after college after 2x internships also at spacex doing software/automation. I was on a couple design teams in college, including Stanford solar car + mars rover. When I started spacex as a software engineer, I knew very little about fluids / propulsion engineering - I learned a lot of it on the job with some pretty incredible mentors. Then I swapped over to propulsion about halfway through my career and have been loving it ever since – at Brownsville
911Crypto retweeted
英伟达给了 2500 万只 NPO 需求指引?
旭创1000万只指引,约160亿美元=1140亿人民币。旭创2025年全年营收382.4亿,光NPO这一块相当于现有体量的3倍。打五折也有570亿,相当于再造一个半旭创。
这就是牢美开了新易盛和中际旭创二倍做多的理由了?
以及机构上调了旭创目标价到 1650 的核心原因也是因为 NPO 要放大量。
911Crypto retweeted
CPO scale out earlier than expected:
> Foxconn: est. units register upward and optical switches shipped early to $NVDA
CPO scale up timelines from $LITE Mizuho Technology Conference today:
“The company expects to start shipping Scale-Up optical products in the second half of 2027, with formal volume ramp-up in 2028”
SVP $NVDA networking: “We’re going to ramp up CPO second half of this year”. No delay indications.
I’m gonna go ahead and trust industry projections. Where they all reiterate faster timelines for scale out CPO H2 onward. And scale up CPO H2 2027 onward (with main growth happening 2028)
Over a questionable motive analyst firm that said $MU had no share of HBM4 Rubin (causing a selloff)
Where micron went out shortly later to into enter mass production. (Triple digit return shortly after)
I think people going long on temporary bridge architectures from this incorrect report won’t be too happy.
Appreciate the buying opportunity though.
911Crypto retweeted
$FLNC lots of chatter now. Read below. It's a simple thesis. Every data center will have BESS from now on. $FLNC is the leader with a massive backlog and disconnected valuation. Their margin issues are likely behind them. I expect them to be able to achieve double digit EBITDA margins at scale.
Nvidia $NVDA is transforming data centers from passive power consumers into active energy factories. The 2027 Vera Rubin roadmap introduces a native 800VDC power architecture. This design places Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) as a requirement in 2027+ future AI factories. Previous architectures used BESS primarily for emergency backup. The Rubin platform requires integrated storage to manage the massive and sudden power spikes of agentic AI.
Two pure-play storage companies have a distinct advantage in this infrastructure shift. Fluence Energy $FLNC and Eos Energy Enterprises $EOSE offer specialized technologies for these new requirements. Both companies also generate sticky, high margin software revenue that scales as they deploy more units.
Fluence Energy ($2.5B MC)
$FLNC focuses on high-speed lithium-ion systems. Their Smartstack architecture provides the sub-second response times needed to stabilize GPU workloads. Fluence is the dominant choice for short-duration power shaving in liquid-cooled environments. The mid-point of their $3.4B revenue is 100% covered by orders. Fluence is currently in a margin trough and has a real road to achieving high single digit EBITDA margins for FY2027.
Eos Energy ($2.6B MC)
$EOSE specializes in long-duration zinc batteries. Their Znyth chemistry is non-flammable and requires no active cooling. This makes Eos the safest choice for dense AI campuses where fire risk limits lithium-ion density. Their technology supports the on-site power generation required for grid-independent AI factories. Management dropped the ball in 2025, but their Q1 preliminary results came in-line with estimates and margin guidance was re-affirmed. This is step 1 of management earning back faith of the capital markets.
Fluence and Eos optimize their hardware specifically for 800VDC native discharge. This technical focus ensures higher efficiency and reliability for the next generation of AI infrastructure.
911Crypto retweeted
今天A股行情依旧还不错,量能维系在3万亿,结构性轮动行情,电子布领域每天慢涨,机器人也轮动起来,反正就是持仓科技,持仓科创50
美股的行情也是集中在科技领域,不过出现了分化,光模块领域出现调整,哪怕财报业绩超预期,其实就是涨多了,基本面甚至更扎实了,不要怕光……
金银终于迎来了缓和,地缘局势的出清让油价降下来了,金银流动性后面会随着美股迎来改善
储能FLNC财报挺好,盘后大涨,FLNC可把人愁坏了,这下鬼故事讲完了,那就快点25见了(别FOMO……)
911Crypto retweeted
西兰花🥦一战,全体要饭!
#Broccoli
链上PVP还不满足,要把战场换到Alpha了
这次比大小写 $Neiro 那次惨烈太多了!
这钱我赚不到,我承认!
见过畜生的,没见过那么畜生的!
真系叼你老母扑街含家铲!
全部都是臭嘿!
还有一个3080的西兰花才100多万市值,要不老鼠仓搞起来,也加入战场!
Fuckkkkkkkkkkk…..💩 #Binance
我原本以为 $Neiro 当时的sol链和以太链的大小写PVP已经够震撼了!
没想到还有高手!
就是现在BSC链的 #Broccoli 🥦
#714 的路太坎坷了!
第一波开盘DEV撸走几千个BNB然后被指责🫵阴谋盘!然后一个VC开的 $MAL 改名成 Broccoli 吸走流量!第二天714下跌筑底慢慢开始社区CTO,随后拉升!到1亿市值左右cz还了关于714的推文,随后删推进入暴跌!后续还遭到了F2b的西兰花疯狂攻击,今天下午又来了一个新的西兰花caab打币给cz然后拉盘吸流,好不容易喘过一口气,晚上@BNBCHAIN 的大赛开始!不知道是技术的原因还是干嘛直接把2f3b的西兰花搞上了第一名🥇,这个西兰花白天到晚上都没什么交易量的,被他这么一搞直接拉了3倍,估计老鼠仓都吃爽了!顺便又给714当头一棒,一路走来714真的没有顺利过!@cz_binance
不就是一次逆风局,怕什么,打赢便是了!
把爱留在714❤️
0x6d5ad1592ed9d6d1df9b93c793ab759573ed6714
911Crypto retweeted
Not selling $TRUMP until both Coinbase and Robinhood listing
911Crypto retweeted
And for my final act. In $AAVE since 80$ and gonna see it hit 4 digits Atleast this year
911Crypto retweeted
今天川普正式宣布成立政府效率部门(D.O.G.E.)后,马斯克推特重提了这个名字的起源。有人找到了 @pumpdotfun 上最早的一个og 内盘,发布于这个名称建议推特的2分钟后:
pump.fun/coin/GWENtqfRmvdT6S…
911Crypto retweeted
TWbot 多多关注几个新闻号,稳了。
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Donald Trump officially elected President of the United States of America.
还带meme名人信息异动通知,监控置顶推文,修改头像等。
BOT:t.me/yingheTWbot
911Crypto retweeted
为什么我选择梭哈了 $PAC
$PAC 美国政治选举委员会
但看这个我没有丝毫梭哈的欲望,甚至都不想买
但当我看了马斯克的解读我懂了
这是一套价值观,同等于08年奥巴马的“美国梦”,41年罗斯福的“免于匮乏免于恐惧”
在中国就是社会主义核心价值观,这将会是在不久的将来刻在三亿美国人心中的“思想钢印”
其实不只是美国人日常需要的关心的问题,这也是全世界70亿人需要关心的,这套价值观会充满全世界,未来或许也是火星城上的价值观
PAC 所提倡的会是这个周期政治家需要解决的问题,民众关心的问题,上院下院投票通过的法案。相比其他口号,这一套价值观是更完善的,成体系的
@americapaconeth @elonmusk @realDonaldTrump
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