He is going back to his blue collared turtleneck roots
teapawt.net/chamath/status/2119498…
When I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I thought when unemployment was low, GDP was hi, household income rose, it meant everyone was winning.
Not true.
The American economy has decoupled the economic progress of asset owners from wage earners to such a degree that broad based measures of success are no longer reliable measures of progress.
This single issue of asset ownership vs progress of wage earners will be the defining issue in all future elections.
Other issues will get caught in the interpretation (price of eggs, Iran war, price of gas etc) but the candidate that realizes that those are downstream of asset vs wage earners and gets their messaging focused on it will win.
No amount of money spent in an election or gerrymandering will change this outcome.
That is what I learned on Nov3.
Ak retweeted
I reported on Buttigieg's 2019-2020 presidential bid, and I've followed him intermittently since then, and I've never seen this side of him -- thoughtful, incisive, with an intellectual depth of which the great majority of would-be electeds are incapable.
When he runs for office the next time, whenever that is, he probably won't want to talk too much about Italian Marxists -- feels a little off point. But it would be a wonderful thing if he could muster this kind of seriousness and imagination, and push past the mind-numbing, idiotic one-dimensionality that has gripped our political class and especially his fellow Democrats.
Ak retweeted
The last person you’d imagine being self-centered and out of touch
Chamath Palihapitiya admits his blind spot on America's broken two-tier economy
PALIHAPITIYA: "I got it totally totally totally wrong. I got it totally wong."
"I'll go through all the ways in which I got it wrong, but I just want to first acknowledge what my blind spot is. Like most people's blind spots, but I can just speak for myself, it is through the lens of my own lived experience and very narrowly what is in my best interests. And I think what we had was a move away from the culture wars that was very much in my best interest, but I think it was in everybody else's best interests as well. I don't think that was on the ballot. But what I don't think I understood clearly enough, and I think that this election has made extremely clear, is that since COVID, we have moved past political ideology. And I want to say this again: I do not think Democrats or Republicans matter. That is my real takeaway after this election. There is a central block of people that vote the prescient issues of our time."
"It was a gargantuan win for Biden, then it was a gargantuan win for Trump, and then it was a gargantuan win for the Democrats in these midterms. What are these people voting for? I think what they are shouting now—they were trying to signal and now they are shouting—is a broad-based belief that the economy has completely decoupled from reality and is broken. The economic reality in America is broken."
"There is a small percentage of people, the four of us on this pod and all of our friends, who are the asset owners of America. And we have benefited in every weather condition. When rates were zero, we benefited because we were able to build our businesses with very cheap capital. When rates were high, we benefited because we had pricing power. And in every condition in between, whether there were tariffs, whether there were not tariffs, whether there were subsidies, whether there were not subsidies, we've all managed to continue to accumulate and grow assets, but we are few and far between."
"And then there's everybody else who are wage earners, and the structural capacity of the American economy to support and grow wage earners is broken. It's clear. Why do I say that? I do not think, and I disagree with Freeberg, I don't think this has anything to do with socialism. I don't think the far left won particularly more than they were expected. I don't think the far right won particularly more than was expected. This is a complete and total repudiation about the state of the economy. The economy is broken. I have a few charts to support my point of view. Number one, if this was ideological and if ideology mattered, money in politics would have had a more direct impact on the election."
Ak retweeted
America really needs to think about getting past the deep homophobia and considering this man for President. My goodness.
Ak retweeted
Daniel Stroock is one of the great probabilists of the past 50 years. Somewhere in the preface of the 2nd edition of one his books, he says “I will never forget [John Doe] who took the first edition of this book as his sole companion on a trip by sailboat around the world for six months, and then mailed me his copy, full of notes and corrections”.
Not sure why, but I find this little tale very poignant, and at the core of what math is, and being human.
Since the debate on humans, math, and AI rages on, I thought I would share.
Ak retweeted
Pete's father, Professor Joe Buttigieg, was a highly respected colleague, and hearing Pete's take on how Gramsci's leftist perspective has been taken over by the right was brilliant. That's my mayor!
Ak retweeted
I am sure that people reading ceph’s post will ask
“What should I do then?”
Say that you like math or STEM.
0. Put your savings in a tax-advantaged passive vehicle. If young, most of it could be in a market ETF.
1. Study Applied Math *for fun*. A Strang book; Page’s The Model Thinker; a book by Steve Strogatz. This stage could last years.
2. Look around for applications. Look for problems that a) provide value to someone; b) have some analytical complexity; c) can be repeated and scaled.
3. If you did 1. and found 2., congrats. Not going to be easy from now on to find cofounders, funding etc. But possible. Your chances to get richer are higher, and the trip more rewarding, than making it as a retail trader.
Everyone hates it when I point out that
- systematic trading is hard
- you can’t prompt your way to a profitable strategy unless you already know what you’re doing
- most people capable of making a success of it for their own account would do much better getting a job at a good trading firm instead
But this is literally the highest value thing I do in this site. Every person who takes my advice is hundreds of hours and tens of thousands of dollars saved!
Ak retweeted
One small group of soldiers set off deep into Nasdaqistan with one mission.
Bringing him home.
Ak retweeted
I can’t shake the feeling that selling your high-beta tech stocks already down 40-70%, to buy low/no growth consumer names at 30-100x earnings…might not be so smart, either.
Regurgitating facts punditry...
teapawt.net/elerianm/status/211840…
Ak retweeted
You’re never too young to do a Merriweather.
I just went long three blowups in nine months on Kashi
JUST IN: Leopold Aschenbrenners Fund (Situational Awareness) has reportedly officially blown up…
These are the current (now liquidated) holdings:
- $MU bought at $1,153, now $703, (-39%)
- $CORZ bought at $25.6, now $11.1, (-56%)
- $SNDK bought at $2,268, now $874, (-61%)
- $NBIS bought at $273, now $121, (-55%)
- $CRWV bought at $99, now $42, (-57%)
- $BE bought at $301, now $165, (-45%)
Use him as a lesson why you NEVER over-leverage into high risk positions.
That concludes an end of an era…
Ak retweeted
As we watch GA turn blue I know I'm not alone in celebrating @staceyabrams, to whom I am so deeply grateful.
I believe these are the first photos I ever took of @ossoff - at the Abrams 2018 election night party (coincidentally in the same room he won reelection tonight).
