Adam Thompson

.@elonmusk @kevinnbass You amplified a claim that Black people commit violent crime against white people at 45 times the rate of the reverse, and that this is "not remotely debatable". ABSOLUTE BOLLOCKS. I used every source Bass cited, plus the ones he left out. Every number below has a URL. Same table, same data. Per 1,000 of the victim's population. (bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv24.pd…, Table 13 and Appendix Table 19) If you are white: From a white person: 10.0 From a Black person: 3.1 You are 3.2 times more likely to be attacked by a white person. If you are Black: From a Black person: 11.5 From a white person: 1.6 You are 7 times more likely to be attacked by a Black person. 1,706,750 White-on-White violent incidents. Over three times the Black-on-White figure. Bass did not mention this. Bass wrote: "Blacks are not the ones being victimized. Whites are". 2024 NCVS Table 3: victimisation rates of 23.4 per 1,000 for Black Americans, 22.1 for white Americans. (bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv24.pd…, Table 3) FBI 2024: 8,158 Black murder victims, 6,753 white. Black Americans are 13% of the population. (statista.com/statistics/2518…) Black homicide rate: 29.0 per 100,000. White: 4.2. Seven times more likely to be murdered. (vpc.org/studies/blackhomicid…) The group Bass calls the threat is the group being killed. For rape, sexual assault, simple assault, and aggravated assault, Black offenders account for 10.5% to 15.6% of incidents with white victims. Black population share: 12%. Barely above proportional. (nationalacademies.org/read/2…) Intraracial victimisation exceeds interracial for all violent crime types except robbery. (bjs.ojp.gov/library/publicat…) Robbery drives the entire disparity. Strip it out and the gap for rape, sexual assault, and assault largely disappears. FBI murder data, 2018 (most recent full cross-tabulation; NIBRS transition disrupted subsequent years): (ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s…) Per 100,000 of the victim's population: White murdered by white: 1.36 White murdered by Black: 0.26 5.2 times more likely to be murdered by a white person. Black murdered by Black: 6.19 Black murdered by white: 0.56 A Black person is twice as likely to be murdered by a white person as the reverse. 84% of white murder victims killed by white offenders. 88% of Black victims by Black offenders. (opencrime.us/analysis/crime-…) Bass's own source warns: "Splitting the sample in half results in a decrease in estimate precision". (bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv24.pd…, page 4) Standard error on his key figure (536,120): 81,462. CI: 376,000 to 696,000. Denominator figure (57,370): SE 19,748. CI: 19,000 to 96,000. His ratio could be anywhere from 3.9 to 36.7. (bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv24.pd…, Appendix Table 14) Two cells flagged: "Interpret with caution. Based on 10 or fewer sample cases, or CV greater than 50%". (bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv24.pd…, Table 13) 19% of all 2024 violent incidents had unknown offender race. Over 1.15 million excluded. More than the Black-on-White figure itself. (bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv24.pd…, Table 11) All offender race data is victim perception, not arrests or convictions. 42% of wrongful convictions from misidentifications are cross-racial. (innocenceproject.org/race-an…) 109,341 respondents weighted to represent 286 million people. Violent crime down over 70% since 1993. From 79.8 to 23.3 per 1,000. (bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv24.pd…, Appendix Tables 1 and 19)