Economics, Finance | NYT Bestselling Author | Filmmaker | Entrepreneur
Baltimore, MD
Joined October 2009
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Everyone's bracing for a consumer slowdown.
The data disagrees.
Same-store #retail sales are up 9.7% YoY — well above the 2025 average.
Credit's rising, but that's a 2027 problem.
And peak retail earnings season starts now.
Today's Pro flags a retailer trending higher, trading at a discount to peers — with a hefty dividend.
new.greyswanfraternity.com/p…
#Semiconductors just posted one of their worst selloffs in 20 years.
Last seen: the 2008, 2022, and 2025 lows.
But chip demand is off the charts — makers can't keep up.
Trouble starts with overcapacity. We're not there.
Today's PRO digs into a key chipmaker that just blew the lid off this capacity story.
new.greyswanfraternity.com/p…
#Gold just passed the euro as the world's #2 reserve asset — behind only the dollar.
Central banks don't chase trends.
They're not betting gold rises.
They're hedging against everything else going wrong.
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Today's Pro recommendation zeroes in on exactly this kind of oversold setup.
new.greyswanfraternity.com/p…
The world's biggest chipmaker funds the #AI firms that buy its chips.
Dollars out one door, back in another.
It looks like record demand.
It's really a circle.
And a circle holds only until everyone lets go at once.
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Andrew shares a unique asset built for the AI buildout — and for hedging sticky inflation.
new.greyswanfraternity.com/p…
Everyone's bracing for a corporate #debt wall.
It's not a wall — it's a slow reset.
Over $4T matures at 2-4x the old rate.
The interest bill doubles one company at a time.
No bell rings for that.
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Bank earnings look strong.
#Gold is signaling otherwise.
Bank stocks and gold long moved together — that link is breaking.
The banks built the AI debt pile, and can't unload it.
When gold and banks split, trust gold.
Given the choice between banks and gold here, the data favors gold — and Andrew's trade today is a unique way to play it.
new.greyswanfraternity.com/p…
Global #debt just hit a record $365 trillion.
Yet the ratio economists watch improved.
The trick: #inflation makes the economy look bigger, so the ratio falls. The yardstick just got longer.
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One number decides if millions of #pension retirements hold — and the funds pick it themselves.
Assume high returns, and you never admit you're short.
By honest math, many are under half funded. Someone always pays.
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Stocks hit records with twice as many falling as rising only twice before: 1929 and 1999. We just did it again.
But #AI isn't those bubbles.
1929 ran on margin, 1999 on hype. This is an industrial buildout — judged on balance sheets, not stories.
Today's Grey Swan Pro is a way to join the party in the hyperscalers — until the fat lady starts a new tune.
new.greyswanfraternity.com/p…
The “safe, boring” #indexfund is now the most crowded trade on earth.
Over half of U.S. fund money is passive — it just buys whatever's biggest.
The top 10 are 40% of the index. The same machine runs in reverse.
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The #SP500 is near record highs. Underneath, it's a different story.
Fewer than 25% of its stocks trade above their 50-day average — the generals climb while the soldiers fall back.
Last time breadth was this bad? 1973 and 1999.
Instead of buying the whole market, today's Grey Swan Pro looks at a basket of leaders still attracting capital as the rest thins out.
new.greyswanfraternity.com/p…