Do you want to own this website for free? DM me!
Americas
Joined August 2026
- Tweets1.8K
- Following552
- Followers159
- Likes882
Pinned Tweet
Month and ten days into the life of @AestusValueLab
Hopeful we can crank out about double the amount of volume this next month. Going to put extra emphasis on the culture markets because it is low variance.
Want to share in the alpha? go.aestusvaluelab.com and sign up!
Last try: 🕚🕚🕚🕚🕚🕚🕚
Anyone who is interested can take over this project for entirely nothing. I have taken a position at a NYC finance company and will no longer have time for this project.
Please reach out to me or @hvdm1987 to deal with the hand over. I will make keep this account live till the end of November then take everything offline.
NOW OR NEVER!!!!
I have decided to move on to another project. If anybody is interested in taking over Aestus I am willing to hand over everything for free.
This project is just too big for a hobby and nowhere near big enough for a source of income. So I have to let it go.
I have the full code repo, Github account and cloudflare hosting account that I can hand over to anyone willing to maintain it.
I've been saying this for a while now:
teapawt.net/hvdm1987/status/196874…
It isn't what you don't know that gets you.
You would have made billions if you gave seed checks to everyone who was at @alexandr_wang’s 19th birthday party:
- Jeff Yan (@chameleon_jeff) went on to start Hyperliquid (~$20B)
- @ScottWu46 went on to start Cognition ($48B)
- @thejessezhang went on to start Decagon ($4.5B)
And Wang himself who started Scale AI, and got $14.3B from Meta for 49% of it.
Wang explains:
“I was doing a winternship at a trading firm called HRT.
There were 12 of us, almost all of whom were students at either Harvard or MIT.
I recently met up with the founder of HRT and they were talking about, ‘We're starting to do some private investments.’
I was like, ‘Just invest into the interns! All the interns get seed checks!’”
This is going to age like 23,99 year old pussy to Leonardo Di Caprio.
Chamath says Anthropic should sacrifice valuation to raise at least $200 billion, because even that barely buys the compute needed to survive a correction
“Here’s my very specific thing about why I think they should price it to clear the market for $200 billion—and I’m specific about that number. They need, in my estimate, at least $200 billion. If you want to be super safe, a quarter-trillion gets the job done.
“What does the price need to be to attract that incremental dollar off the sidelines? Can they raise $80 billion in an IPO at $1.7, $1.8 or $1.9 trillion? I think so, handily. Can they raise $100 billion? Maybe it’s pushing it. At $150 billion, I think you need to be back down to $1.5 trillion.”
JCal: “You’re saying you want them to raise more money at a lower valuation so they have a war chest.”
Chamath: “$150 billion at $1.5 trillion is not enough. $200 billion barely gets them a few gigawatts. That is the bottom-line math if Anthropic is going to go through and survive an eventual correction.
“I think it’s much better for them to have $200 billion to $250 billion today than to try to ring the bell at $1.9 or $2 trillion for $80 billion, file a mixed shelf—which takes about six months—and hope the markets are in line.
“I just think there’s more risk in the future than there is today. Why take the risk? Price it to clear the market.”
Two more wins on the @Bundesliga_DE which only gets us around halfway back from the @valenciacf vs @elchecf disaster that took place today.
I pulled every Polymarket trade I've made on Elon Musk tweet-count markets and sports since late August. 244 positions. $33.3K staked. +$853 net. Two very different books. Here's what the data says 🧵
Where I leak money:
- Selling early: -$323 over 55 positions, vs +$964 on the ones I held to resolution
- Penny Yes tickets under 10¢: 1 of 10 hit, -$256 - 95-99¢ No shares: 96% hit rate, but only +$131 on $14K staked
Sports: +$211 on $3.0K.
Soccer (+$176) and NFL (+$44) carry it.
F1 head-to-heads (-$46) and both-teams-to-score (-$14) leak. ~100 settled bets is too few to call it a proven edge yet.
All numbers from my public Polymarket history, as of Oct 16.
go.aestusvaluelab.com
Should we expand Aestus to also get into poker and trading?
Which one should we do first? Let me know in the comments.
I really need to buy me a Roadster and attempt the world's first backflip in a supercar!
Let's get this in front of @elonmusk and make it happen!
Also want to break the lap record at Nurnberg!
Last week, I put our model up against what seems to be the strongest competitor in the @elonmusk X post count markets. Judge for yourself, then signup for an account on our website!
You can post a 600 word essay showing you don't understand what CLV means and get 100k views.
Or you can post profitable samples from public betting models available for free on the internet and get.
14.....
We had an automation issue causing us to get trapped in some mistaken positions. I have since filtered out those losses, and wanted to share the results of running our Aestus probability models.
We crushed sports at 9.7% ROI and achieved a respectable 1.1% on Elon posts. There isn't much volume to be had on sports, but we will keep pushing this to see where we can take this.
Sign up for an account, link is in the pinned post on my profile!
