Unofficial, but accurate. Predictive model based on team strengths (no players) calculated by subtracting obvious luck. Won 12 tipping comps for computer models
Not the AFL. Nor Channel 7
Joined August 2014
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What is Luck?
First, it's the thing that the Live Ladders model attempts to subtract from the scoreboard result, to find an underlying margin.
Second, it's what propelled the tipping model to 156 this year, 20 ahead of the bookies. 24 of 29 @SquiggleAFL models beat them. [1/3]
GWS score five goals in a row and Carlton is comfortably planning for a qualifying final already. Percentage in play liveladders.com/AFLW
Quick 2027 Fixture summary:
toughest draws are Brisbane, Hawthorn, and surprisingly Gold Coast
easiest is Richmond, plus North if they didn't sell those WA games
The AFL has done its best job ever balancing things. About to get blown up by Tassie in 2028
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
These scores make an exact four-way tie for eighth!
Haw 54-56 WCE
Adel 41-33 Melb
Freo 45-25 Syd
Port 61-15 StK
All finish on 24 points, 101.88679% (54/53)
Hawthorn & Fremantle haven't met this season and would need a coin-flip if they tie
Intriguing final round in the AFLW this weekend. Sydney could finish 7th with a 9-3 record that only nets them an away Elimination Final.
Three teams are in contention for fourth: Gold Coast & Carlton who play non-finalists, and the Bulldogs who face #2 Geelong. These results make an exact three-way tie:
G.C. 45-39 GWS
Carl 46-39 B.L.
W.B. 49-33 Geel
All 36 points, 133.3…%
Sydney need a 90-point win to compete
Malinauskas furious. AFL travel budgets blown. Extreme heat policy activated. Courtesy Gemini, query "afl fixture 2027"
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
Our trade wrap, attempting to quantitatively project the future value that moved.
Some interesting stuff emerged this year - the biggest single player trade since Carey, several clubs going win-now, and a strong trend in the pick-player exchange rate.
abc.net.au/news/2026-10-15/a…
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
The Western Bulldogs and Geelong finished 12th and 13th respectively in the 2025 AFLW season, and yet based on @AflLadder's projections, the difference in the difficulty in their fixtures is staggering.
It's absolutely ridiculous that teams don't play each other once.
Of the last 20 close Grand Final WINNERS spanning 110 years, just one has won the flag the following year: Brisbane 2002.
Close Grand Final losers have a much better record, with three of the past five winning the flag the next year: West Coast 2005, Hawthorn 2012, Brisbane 2023
The Dockers became the 29th team in V/AFL history to lose a Grand Final by 10 points or less.
Of the previous 28, only five won the flag the following year. afl.com.au/news/1623180/what…
For fans of the "runway" theory heading into finals: neither the Roosters nor the Knights won in the last three home & away rounds. Now it's 4th vs 7th in the #NRLGrandFinal
Since Shot Equity started in 2010, three Grand Finals have been lost by teams with the higher value:
2012 Hawthorn
2013 Fremantle
2026 Fremantle
Arguably the main reason Freo doesn't have two premierships is conversion: 8·14 from 29 shots and 12·17 from 32
#AFLFreoLions End of Q4 xScores:
#xScorePisser
FRE 88 from expected 97.8 (+1 rushed)
BL 95 from expected 89.3 (+1 rushed)
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
#AFLFreoLions End of Q4 xScores:
#xScorePisser
FRE 88 from expected 97.8 (+1 rushed)
BL 95 from expected 89.3 (+1 rushed)
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
when you're walking around melbourne in freo gear people treat you with the heavy-handed enthusiasm and kindness usually reserved for make-a-wish kids
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
It's interesting that 'AFL Player Ratings' wasn't an approved stat the umpires were suppose to have access to. But how were they shown the stats? On a phone? Did it just include everything? Might be mostly noise considering the players who had great seasons anyway.
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
With the Chiefs winning by 21, all games ended on unique margins. Apparently this is the first time this happened for a 16 game week
Based on the pre-game spreads this week (and a model which assigns final margin likelihoods to a spread), the chance for this to happen was ~430:1
