Unofficial, but accurate. Predictive model based on team strengths (no players) calculated by subtracting obvious luck. Won 12 tipping comps for computer models
Not the AFL. Nor Channel 7
Joined August 2014
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AFL Live Ladder retweeted
These scores make an exact four-way tie for eighth!
Haw 54-56 WCE
Adel 41-33 Melb
Freo 45-25 Syd
Port 61-15 StK
All finish on 24 points, 101.88679% (54/53)
Hawthorn & Fremantle haven't met this season and would need a coin-flip if they tie
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
Our trade wrap, attempting to quantitatively project the future value that moved.
Some interesting stuff emerged this year - the biggest single player trade since Carey, several clubs going win-now, and a strong trend in the pick-player exchange rate.
abc.net.au/news/2026-10-15/a…
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
The Western Bulldogs and Geelong finished 12th and 13th respectively in the 2025 AFLW season, and yet based on @AflLadder's projections, the difference in the difficulty in their fixtures is staggering.
It's absolutely ridiculous that teams don't play each other once.
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
#AFLFreoLions End of Q4 xScores:
#xScorePisser
FRE 88 from expected 97.8 (+1 rushed)
BL 95 from expected 89.3 (+1 rushed)
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
when you're walking around melbourne in freo gear people treat you with the heavy-handed enthusiasm and kindness usually reserved for make-a-wish kids
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
It's interesting that 'AFL Player Ratings' wasn't an approved stat the umpires were suppose to have access to. But how were they shown the stats? On a phone? Did it just include everything? Might be mostly noise considering the players who had great seasons anyway.
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
With the Chiefs winning by 21, all games ended on unique margins. Apparently this is the first time this happened for a 16 game week
Based on the pre-game spreads this week (and a model which assigns final margin likelihoods to a spread), the chance for this to happen was ~430:1
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
This is so fun. GPT-4o-mini (blue) vs gpt-5.6-Luna (red). Despite mini having much better players, it gets smashed by 5 goals. Poor coaching from Mini. I'm thinking of making this battleable- people can submit their coach+player prompts and battle my coach+players. Interested?
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
Here is a side-by-side comparison of the highest rated players by position for the 2026 H&A season
Top 24 midfielders attending 30%+ of centre bounces
1/7
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
Brisbane thrashing Hawthorn may end up as the most important H&A result, given the impact on percentage and the Lions’ chance to avoid Freo in week 1.
This is close though; if Demons had won by 96 (their game-high lead), they’d be 4th right now. Instead they trail Hawks by 6%.
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
Was talking about this last night (because my life is very exciting). Would probably have to be Marvel that Friday night… made harder by the fact it’d probably be Hawthorn and Melbourne with the latter the lower seed? I suppose whichever is playing a non-Vic side would be moved
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
Fremantle will clinch the minor premiership if Sydney loses to St Kilda tomorrow.
It would be the equal-earliest any team has clinched the V/AFL minor premiership, with 3 games left, matching Hawthorn 1971, Essendon 2000 and Geelong 2007. @FOXFOOTY
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
The Tasmania Devils jersey is the first AFL jersey to feature a map. But as a cartographer, it got me thinking: is the map too coarse?
To test the theory, I built an app that puts the design in your hands. Let me know what you think.
lnkd.in/gjtps7Ug
AFL Live Ladder retweeted
Australia 🇦🇺 have 28 possible opponents in R32!
Chart shows 10 most likely ones.
Only 3 of them have a double-digit probability:
17% 🇪🇬 Egypt
13% 🇧🇪 Belgium
12% 🇮🇷 Iran
Fourth most likely is - 🇳🇿 New Zealand. 😃
👉 Full analysis of most likely opponents for all 48 teams available in our 🕹️ Simulator
