Al Toews

How SpaceX Becomes the Most Profitable Company Ever

This is one of the best graphs I've seen in a long time. It shows how much each Canadian receives from Ottawa, based on their age. I wish someone could create this graph for 1965, and show the demographic shift that has occurred in the last 60 years. 1/

Le mensonge de l’ONU vient de s’effondrer en une semaine sur Haïti. Pendant 30 ans, l’ONU et la « communauté internationale » ont multiplié les résolutions, les missions (MINUSTAH, MSS, GSF), les rapports, les expertises et les mandats limités. Résultat : les gangs contrôlent 80-90 % de Port-au-Prince, des milliers de morts par an, plus d’un million de déplacés, un État fantôme. La Force de Suppression des Gangs, autorisée par le Conseil de sécurité, a mis plus d’un an à déployer environ 1 500 hommes avec un impact dérisoire. Les gangs ont même réussi à tendre une embuscade à des techniciens salvadoriens sous mandat ONU. Bukele arrive. En une dizaine de jours, il déploie plus de 2 000 soldats salvadoriens davantage que toute la force ONU, hors du carcan bureaucratique et des chaînes de commandement multilatérales. Pas de six mois de négociations, pas de rapports de 200 pages, pas de « respect des droits des gangs ». Juste des soldats, des blindés, des hélicoptères, et une volonté claire. Et soudain, les gangs se cachent. Les habitants sortent dans la rue, crient, célèbrent. Le mot d’ordre est simple : « Se débloque le pays ». Les chefs de gangs appellent l’ONU pour « dialoguer » et demander la médiation. La panique s’installe chez ceux qui terrorisaient le pays depuis des années. Ce n’est pas un miracle. C’est la démonstration que le problème n’a jamais été « trop complexe pour être résolu ». Le problème, c’était le dogme : que seule l’approche multilatérale molle, procédurale, obsédée par les « droits humains » des criminels, pouvait être légitime. Que la souveraineté, la force décisive et les résultats concrets étaient suspects. Bukele a déjà prouvé chez lui qu’on pouvait casser les gangs. Il vient de le montrer en Haïti en une semaine, pendant que l’ONU en parlait depuis trois décennies. Les Haïtiens dans la rue l’ont compris plus vite que les experts de New York et de Genève. La question n’est plus « comment faire ? ». Elle est : combien de temps encore allons-nous prétendre que les processus internationaux qui perpétuent le chaos sont la seule solution possible ? A bon entendeur.

🚨 BREAKING: ELON MUSK DELIVERS HIS SECOND SPEECH AFTER GINA HINOJOSA THREATENED TO TARGET HIS TESLA COMPANY IN TEXAS. 🗣️ “Gina is a Barack Obama and Kamala Harris puppet. She was planted there by the Democratic Party leaders to help them achieve their selfish goals. But you know what? They need me more than I need them. If they don’t want me, I will leave immediately and move to Florida. I already know she will come after Cybertruck production, using taxes as an excuse, but we know what is really going on. She has been instructed by her deep-state leaders to target me because of how I supported Donald Trump during the election. The fight is not really against me; it is against Trump. They want to use me to get to him, but they have forgotten that the President still has veto power. Gina Hinojosa is a small lady. I am not afraid of her. All I do is laugh whenever she makes statements like that. Her actions will hurt her state and its people far more than they will hurt my company. So, let’s see whether she genuinely has the interests of Texans at heart or whether she intends to use hatred to destroy what Texas has achieved over the years.”

再简单说几句， 美国政府和马斯克Space X的关系 先说结论：不是 SpaceX 离不开美国政府，是美国政府离不开 SpaceX。而政府那点订单，对 SpaceX 根本不值一提。 1：发射：美国国家安全发射，SpaceX 拿走绝大部分任务；Falcon 9 一年 差不多200 发、成功率 99.5%。Space X 几乎比对手便宜一半， 而且更可靠！ULA 故障停飞，蓝色起源停飞，新势力还没有火箭——没人接得住 2:载人：Crew Dragon 是美国唯一能用的载人飞船。波音 Starliner 拿了 51 亿美元，至今没飞过一次正式任务， 人还是Space X 接回来的 3:登月：Artemis 重返月球，着陆器只有 Starship 一个方案，没有 Plan B 4：军事：NRO 间谍卫星星座、金穹"导弹防御、军方 MILNET 网络，星盾，全建在 SpaceX 身上。没Space X全部立刻瘫痪 5:官方结论：五角大楼 2025 年自己审查过——与 SpaceX 的绝大多数合同无可替代 反过来看NASA 的钱 2026 年只占 SpaceX 营收不到 5%。它的大头是 Starlink 1400W用户和 AI 算力生意。政府合同对 SpaceX 可有可无，对美国政府却是命根子。 政府动谁都不敢动Space X！！！

It is ironically going to be Elon who benefits the most- as the price of compute is going to soar with the coming restrictions on data centre buildouts. SpaceX is the one most levered to spot price of compute going up, and is the one that has its DC projects in GOP areas that will likely be much less opposition than the ones the Dems won. He will expand capacity the furthest and because dems can’t restrict demand - you will see $400-500B type windfalls to SpaceX- and by extension Elon…

SpaceX is trading at 11x forward sales while revenue almost triples in 6 months. I don't think people understand what this means yet. So I did the math. 1. What Elon actually said "SpaceX revenue this quarter alone will be substantially higher than NASA’s entire annual budget!" NASA's entire annual budget: $24.4B. SpaceX Q3 revenue: $14.6B. My call: $30B+ this quarter. Then $40B+ in Q1. Revenue almost triples in 6 months. Let that sink in. 2. The old Q1 guide is already obsolete SpaceX guided $33-37B of revenue for Q1. My call is $40B+. That is 9-20% above the old guide. And that is just Q1. Elon on 21 Oct: "As crazy as this sounds, $1T in SpaceX revenue in 2028 is no longer impossible." 3. So this means $40B in one quarter = $160B a year. $SPCX at $132.47 = a $1.80T company. $1.80T / $160B = 11x forward sales. For revenue almost tripling in 6 months. For the company Elon says could hit $1T revenue in 2028, you pay 1.8x those 2028 sales. Cheapest big stock in the market. Not even close. 4. This is NOT profitless growth Q3 revenue: $14.575B. Net income: $4.404B. That is a 30.2% net margin. Actual net profit. Other AI companies spend billions chasing future profits. SpaceX already makes 30 cents on every dollar while building AI compute, Starlink and Starship at the same time. 5. Now turn those sales into actual earnings If the 30% margin holds: $40B x 30% = $12B of quarterly profit. $12B x 4 = $48B of annual profit. $48B / 13.58B shares = $3.53 of forward EPS. At $132.47, you pay 38x that earnings. 50x = $177. 60x = $212. No merger premium. No $100T dream. No orbital data centers. Just the Q1 revenue run-rate and Q3's actual margin. 6. Why 38x is cheap here Normal companies at 38x earnings grow 10-20%. SpaceX is almost tripling revenue in two quarters. It is a hypergrowth AI compute monopoly with a 30% net margin, the rockets to expand that compute into space and Starlink on top. People see 11x sales and say expensive. I see revenue almost tripling and say they have no idea what they own. 7. Calling it now Analysts will raise their revenue estimates. Then their earnings estimates. Then their targets. Then the same people calling $SPCX expensive at $132 will buy it above $200. Every $1,000 becomes $1,335 at $177. $1,600 at $212. And the $1T 2028 opportunity still isn't in this math. That's the whole secret. The stock is priced for a company that doesn't exist anymore. You are still very insanely early lol $SPCX

Cenovus and Suncor alone will pay ~$7 billion in royalties and taxes this quarter. I won’t have anyone ever tell me again Canada subsidises the oil and gas sector. I won’t.

🇺🇸 The Shift in Power: Why Trump is Free to Act and How Marco Rubio Wins Big Do not assume that the recent electoral defeat leaves Trump paralyzed. The opposite is likely true. Trump has not been stripped of power; paradoxically, he now has complete freedom of action. Up until now, the elections acted as a brake on aggressive decisions in places like Iran, Cuba, Mexico, etc. Taking massive action earlier would have burned valuable cartridges that can now be better utilized over the next two years. Consider Cuba. While some argue Trump should have crushed the Cuban regime before the midterms, doing so likely would not have changed the outcome against a wide Democratic victory. However, that cartridge still remains available, and Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is perfectly positioned to use it. Despite the national Republican defeat, Rubio emerged as the big winner heading into the 2028 presidential race because Republicans held Florida. Meanwhile, Ohio was lost, leaving JD Vance and Vivek Ramaswamy as the election's big losers. If Cuba falls over the next two years, Rubio will capitalize on the victory, capturing the Latino vote and presenting himself as a proper, measured career politician - everything Trump never cared to be. While Trump, the disruptor, is damaged, Rubio the professional is strengthened. Setbacks like this are normal; Clinton lost both chambers in 1994 and still won reelection in 1996. Furthermore, the Democrats will face a period of political paralysis. Trump retains veto power to block attempts to reverse his policies, while Congress will freeze his domestic agenda. This domestic gridlock suits Trump, whose true focus is now foreign policy, an area where Congress has limited interference. Trump aims to leave an irreversible global landscape by 2028 - one without the current regimes in Cuba, Venezuela, or Iran, and a weakened woke Europe. As of this Wednesday, Trump no longer has to worry about reelection, public opinion, or even domestic inflation. Trump has nothing left to lose and faces no political constraints. Expect a far more aggressive foreign policy focused purely on his legacy, with Marco Rubio poised to reap the long-term rewards. How will the Democratic Congress respond if Trump completely bypasses domestic policy to aggressively reshape the global order? Can Marco Rubio successfully unite the traditional establishment and the populist base to secure the nomination for 2028? #USPolitics #ForeignPolicy #Trump #MarcoRubio #Elections2028

Elon Musk runs an experiment on X shutting down all Islamic countries. Results are as expected loll

If you want to know who to blame for the death of Europe, blame Douglas Murray, @DouglasKMurray. If that man had only published a best-selling book in 2017 that spent almost twenty weeks on the Sunday Times bestseller list, hit number one in non-fiction, and been translated into more than twenty languages, elites and voters would have listened, weighed his evidence, and made the changes that would have kept them out of the unmitigated catastrophe they're in now. Nobody would have called him: Nazi
Far-right crank
Conservative grift pig
Race-baiting charlatan
Fearmongering demagogue They would have read the book, made policy changes, and avoided civilizational collapse.

.@CoastGuardCAN confirms it reclassified all 7,378 of its employees including 6-figure executives as national defenders to help cabinet meet @NATO spending targets. Staff were @FishOceansCAN until 2025. blacklocks.ca/all-7378-are-n… @NationalDefence @DavidMcGuinty #cdnpoli

BOOM 🚨 Elon Musk has now weighed in twice on Shaun Maguire's SpaceX analysis. One reply looks decades out, to petawatts of compute. This one is about the next two years, and it turns one of the model's biggest assumptions on its head. Maguire's model does include orbital compute, but only as a side act. By the end of 2028, he has SpaceX running 21 GW of compute on the ground and just 2.8 GW in orbit. The revenue gap is even wider. In 2028, orbital compute brings in about $31 billion in his model, while ground compute rakes in about $569 billion. So in Maguire's model, orbital is the peanuts. Elon says it's exactly the other way around. It all comes down to power. Here on Earth, the biggest thing holding back new AI data centers is often just getting enough electricity. That means waiting years on new power plants, grid hookups, and land. In the right orbit, a satellite's solar panels soak up sunlight almost nonstop, and none of those limits apply. The real bottleneck becomes how much hardware you can launch. And that's where the numbers get wild. SpaceX's FCC filing estimates roughly 100 kW of computing power for every tonne in orbit. That points to about 100 GW of new compute a year if SpaceX can launch a million tonnes annually. That's five times Maguire's entire ground build-out, added every single year. Elon also thinks the shift is coming fast. By around the end of 2028, he expects more compute to be deployed in orbit each month than on the ground, and by 2029 he says it won't even be close. Maguire's own numbers show the gap is already closing. In the last quarter of 2028, his model adds about 3 GW on the ground and about 1.5 GW in orbit. That orbital pace is nearly triple what it was the quarter before. Elon is betting the lines cross a little sooner, and then orbit leaves the ground in the dust. Even then, the ground would still hold more compute in total for a while. Think of Norway, where EVs have dominated new car sales for years but still aren't most of the cars on the road. To be fair, this is an aggressive timeline. SpaceX is aiming for about 1 GW of compute in orbit by the end of 2027, then ten times more every year after that. Maguire's model has only 0.15 GW by then, which means even a major SpaceX bull is far more cautious than SpaceX itself. Elon's call only works if SpaceX gets much closer to its own target, and he said "probably" for a reason. But if he's right, the smallest line in Maguire's compute forecast is the one that ends up mattering most.

Sarà pazzo ma Trump sa quel che fa «Chi ha informato il presidente polacco Karol Tadeusz Nawrocki mentre si trovava a bordo di un aereo in partenza dal paese che era in corso un ‘colpo di stato’? Tutte le comunicazioni sono intercettate dall’esercito… È pensabile che mandanti UE abbiano pianificato il ‘colpo di stato’ e lo abbiano diretto insieme al primo ministro polacco? Trump è venuto a conoscenza del loro piano? Il primo ministro Tusk non è solo un alleato dell’UE ma anche persona vicina a Obama. Probabilmente l’intelligence polacca ha monitorato le comunicazioni di tutti i principali attori in Polonia già prima del ‘colpo di stato’. Perché? Trump ha stipulato un accordo con il presidente Nawrocki per la creazione di una grande base militare in Polonia. Dovrebbe essere realizzata presto ed è una questione di ‘sicurezza nazionale’. Inoltre, alcune settimane fa Zelensky – forse col supporto del primo ministro pro-UE Tusk – è stato beccato mentre utilizzava lo spazio aereo polacco per attaccare una raffineria russa nonostante Trump gli avesse chiesto di smettere. L’UE ha cercato di provocare una rappresaglia russa per portare a un’escalation delle operazioni NATO nell’ambito della guerra. Questa violazione non autorizzata dello spazio aereo polacco da parte di Zelensky ha fornito all’intelligence militare motivi sufficienti per monitorare attentamente la situazione in Polonia. Successivamente, sono accadute due cose che hanno rivelato che dietro le quinte stava succedendo qualcosa di serio. Trump ha improvvisamente annullato entrambi i suoi comizi previsti per il fine settimana; non deluderebbe i suoi sostenitori del movimento MAGA se non ci fosse qualcosa di importante che richiedeva la sua attenzione immediata. Anche JD Vance ha annullato la sua partecipazione a un importante discorso previsto in Minnesota. Probabile che intelligence polacca abbia rilevato il ‘colpo di stato’ il cui obiettivo era rimuovere dal potere il presidente, alleato di Trump. Tusk ha aspettato che Nawrocki lasciasse il paese, e tutto questo è accaduto di notte, alla vigilia del 1º novembre, Ognissanti, festa nazionale importante in Polonia. Il primo ministro ha agito nel momento in cui si aspettava la minima resistenza. Il presidente Nawrocki ha fatto rapidamente inversione con il suo aereo ed è tornato in Polonia. Sapeva perfettamente come stessero le cose e in cosa consisteva questo ‘colpo di stato’. Si è immediatamente recato al Tribunale Costituzionale e – in compagnia del Primo Presidente della Corte Suprema – è entrato all’interno. Il presidente polacco ha contestato lo status dei giudici che il primo ministro aveva appena cercato di introdurre illegalmente nel collegio giudicante per prendere il controllo delle corti. Ed ecco l’elemento più sorprendente, un altro motivo per cui è possibile che Trump possa aver avuto un ruolo dietro le quinte: le unità di polizia che avevano occupato l’edificio del Tribunale Costituzionale non hanno cercato di impedire al presidente di entrare; in pratica non hanno fatto nulla, mentre i polacchi si radunavano per protestare contro questo ‘colpo di stato’. Invece di una escalation, il tentativo di ‘colpo di stato’ si è dissolto nell'aria. Perché? Il piano dell’UE è stato sventato dietro le quinte? Il coinvolgimento della polizia è stato minimo e l’esercito non ha collaborato affatto. È grazie a Trump se l’esercito è rimasto inattivo? O forse l’esercito era in attesa, in stato di allerta, nel caso in cui il tentativo di ‘colpo di stato’ si fosse trasformato in una vera e propria ‘rivoluzione colorata’? Sembrava che il primo ministro contasse su un forte supporto per poi vedersi improvvisamente il terreno crollargli sotto i piedi. Il tentativo di ‘colpo di stato’, oltre che maldestro, si è rivoltato contro la stessa UE, indebolendola ulteriormente. L’Unione Europea – come il Partito Democratico USA – sta lentamente ma inesorabilmente dirigendosi verso il collasso.» (cit. @BitcoinFeniks)

Kid Rock was golfing with President Trump when Macron called, and Trump handed the phone to Kid Rock because he didn’t want to talk to him. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

🚨 BLACK FRIDAY IS HERE. $700 Billion has been wiped out from Gold and Silver today. $500 Billion has been wiped out from the Asian stock market today. $150 Billion has been wiped out from the crypto market following Binance's hack. $800 Billion will be wiped out from the US stock market at open based on the current pre-market drop. This is almost $2.2 Trillion wiped out from global markets, and Friday isn't over yet.

A year ago, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta generated $60.7 billion of free cash flow in a single quarter. This summer, $7.4 billion. They didn't sell less. Revenue grew 19% at Microsoft, 25% at Alphabet and 26% at Meta. What changed is the bill: $125.6 billion in three months for data centers, chips and servers, double what they spent a year earlier. Meta put 54 cents of every dollar of revenue into capex. Alphabet spent $9 billion more than it took in, its second negative quarter in a row, and this morning its stock fell 12%. If it closes down more than 9.77%, it will be its worst day after earnings since going public in 2004. The detail that worries me most is in Google's search numbers. Search ads grew 12% and still missed expectations. Philipp Schindler, Alphabet's chief business officer, said part of the reason is that AI Mode makes less money per search. So Google is spending record sums to build a product that earns less than the one it replaces. For twenty years these were the best businesses ever invented. You wrote the code once, sold it to billions of people, and almost every new dollar of revenue fell to the bottom line. AI doesn't work like that. Every answer runs on a chip someone had to buy and on electricity someone has to pay for. Big Tech is turning into something closer to a utility: huge upfront costs, long paybacks, and profits that depend on keeping the machines full. That can still be a great business. But it is a different business, and investors are only starting to price it that way. The old moat was code. The new one is cash.

Elon is going to burn a ton of natural gas… and I’m here for it!