
Deputy Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program @CrisisGroup; Adjunct Prof @Georgetown; Ex @FPI_SAIS @UNDPPA @FAScientists @Harvard
Geneva, Switzerland
Joined September 2011
- Tweets37.4K
- Following1K
- Followers91.5K
- Likes2.5K
Seven months in, Iran & the U.S. each believe they have tools to make the other blink, fortitude to wait the other out, and disinclination to make concessions the other seeks.
My latest for @ForeignAffairs 👇
tinyurl.com/4vudctak
Ali Vaez retweeted
HRH Prince Khalid bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Minister of Defense, leads the Kingdom’s delegation to the meetings that will be held today in Tehran, capital of Iran, between Makkah Joint Defense Agreement countries and officials from the Islamic Republic of Iran, with participation of Field Marshall Asim Munir, Pakistani Chief of Army Staff and Ibrahim Kalin, Director of the Turkish National Intelligence.
Representatives of Makkah Joint Defense Agreement countries will meet with the H.E. President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, and H.E. the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Mohsen Rezaei.
The visit comes as part of the continued efforts by the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement countries for de-escalation between parties involved in the ongoing crisis, and promoting dialogue and diplomatic solutions, in support of the mediation efforts carried out by the State of Qatar and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. The visit underscore the pivotal role of Makkah Joint Defense Agreement countries in reinforcing regional security and stability, and working with all countries in the region to achieve that goal.
Ali Vaez retweeted
When Israel went to war against Iran in the past, its generals and spies were behind Netanyahu. He no longer has that level of support:
"Israel's intelligence community does not accept that the Iranians have restarted their nuclear programme, nor that there is any imminent threat that currently justifies going to war." economist.com/middle-east-an…
Ali Vaez retweeted
We’re spending more a year on the military in adjusted dollars than we did during World War II. What are we getting for it? And how much is going to Israel? Stephen Semler has the numbers.
0:00 How Is the Iran War Viewed by the Public?
6:34 The Growing "War" Budget
19:18 The Weapons Lobby
32:07 What Are the Costs of This War?
39:20 Why Hasn't the Pentagon Ever Passed an Audit?
49:18 How Do We Get the Pentagon Under Control?
52:52 The Price of Veterans Care
55:43 How Much Did the Iraq War Cost?
1:00:20 What Will Happen in the Midterms?
1:01:39 How Much Money Has the US Sent to Israel?
1:15:35 The Warmongers' Oppression of Working-Class Americans
1:20:31 How Many People Actually Support Aid to Israel?
1:27:30 Would the Iran War Have Happened Under Kamala Harris?
1:33:43 The Pro-War Propaganda and Attacks on Christians
1:38:09 Is There Anyone Who's Done Real Reporting on Gaza?
🤝 Paid partnership
Ali Vaez retweeted
Iranian army says it shot down US drone over Bandar Abbas, Tasnim reports reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
Ali Vaez retweeted
The #IranWar, which Donald Trump said would be over in a matter of weeks, looks set to escalate as it enters its eighth month.
“Both Trump and Netanyahu may see war with Iran as a political escape hatch,” said Mideast expert @AliVaez of International Crisis Group. “But both risk discovering that a war intended to rescue their political fortunes could end up burying them.”
Our latest analysis, 10 days out from midterms
@Magdalena_971 @SamyAdghirni @iainmarlow
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Ali Vaez retweeted
🚨Scoop: U.S. intelligence finds Iran has "substantially increased" its efforts to target American diplomats & officials in the Middle East and beyond, with lethal plots reaching "advanced stages," per memo to Secretary of State Rubio. My story on @axios
axios.com/2026/10/24/iran-wa…
Ali Vaez retweeted
UKMTO WARNING 181-26
Click here to view the full product⤵️
ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/prod…
#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec
Ali Vaez retweeted
Oil-exporting economies in the Middle East have seen a sharp slowdown in economic activity due to disruptions to energy production and shipping. Higher energy prices have helped cushion the blow, but economic strains remain significant.
imf.org/en/publications/reo/…
Ali Vaez retweeted
Trump weighs quick end to Iran war against letting conflict ‘wither’ - reuters.com/world/trump-weig…
Ali Vaez retweeted
🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: AMB. TOM BARRACK WARNS U.S. STRIKE COULD HAPPEN THIS WEEKEND
I asked Trump's Special Envoy, Tom Barrack: “Could there be a strike on this this weekend?
His answer was direct: "Absolutely.”
Amb. Barrack laid out exactly where things stand with Iran right now.
“The consequence won’t be regime change. The president is interested in rebalancing so that there’s no hostages, no threats, and the world can calm down.”
Trump is "open and available and accessible to a deal, but he's also been very clear about what he wants."
And the Iranians may not be willing to give it to him...
@USAMBTurkiye
Wishcasting…
US is prepared for long stand-off with Iran, says Trump envoy ft.trib.al/4HgY6Qd
Noteworthy
Breaking: Four influential regional powers from the Muslim world and three major European powers are set to meet in a first ever single diplomatic format in Istanbul as Pakistan's DPM and Foreign Minister @MIshaqDar50 is all set to travel for the meeting which will be on Friday, per sources.
Foreign Ministers of R-4(Regional 4 Muslim Countries) comprising of Pakistan, Turkiyei, Saudi Arabi and Egypt are All set to Meet Foreign Minister of E-3(European Three Countries) Comprising of UK, France and Germany. Quite of a significant diplomatic development of between two regional alliances.
Ali Vaez retweeted
At the start of the war Iran had ~135m barrels of oil in floating storage in Asia, which it continued selling to China
After a months-long American blockade, that stockpile has been totally depleted, according to @Kpler wsj.com/world/middle-east/ir…
As we brace for war, it’s important to remember that Washington and Israel can bomb Iran into ruins, but not into submission—and after setting the region ablaze, they may find themselves back at the same negotiating table, only with a much higher price paid in blood and treasure.
"Renewed military conflict before or after the midterms won’t resolve the disputes the United States and Iran will eventually have to confront across the negotiating table," writes Ali Vaez. time.com/article/2026/10/21/…
Danny is right. Washington and Israel may have the firepower to start another war with Iran, but neither the power to dictate how it ends nor a strategy to ensure that the next round of destruction achieves anything more than the last—except at a far greater cost.
Washington and Jerusalem Have Learned the Wrong Lessons from Their Wars with Iran
I regret to say that neither the United States nor Israel appears to have learned the most important lessons from their previous military campaigns against Iran.
Five realities must be understood before launching another war:
1. Iran will not surrender. Even a far more intense and destructive military campaign, including strikes against critical energy infrastructure, is unlikely to force Tehran into capitulation. The Iranian leadership will not simply abandon its nuclear ambitions or ballistic missile program under military pressure. If anything, another war could further strengthen its determination to preserve these capabilities.
2. Washington and Jerusalem cannot dictate the duration of the war. Anyone who believes another military campaign can be limited to a few days is making a dangerous assumption. Iran's response is likely to be extensive and violent, potentially forcing the United States and Israel to launch additional strikes. Once this cycle begins, controlling the pace, scope, and duration of the conflict will become extraordinarily difficult.
3. There is no military silver bullet. Striking Iranian infrastructure, including energy facilities, will not magically resolve the Iranian challenge. On the contrary, such attacks could trigger massive Iranian retaliation against energy infrastructure across the Middle East, with devastating regional and global consequences.
4. Iran will have surprises of its own. American and Israeli planners should not assume that Tehran will respond only with missiles and drones. Iran could attempt to disrupt undersea communications cables, conduct unconventional operations, or even launch limited ground operations against vulnerable targets in Kuwait or Bahrain. These are potential scenarios, not certainties, but they cannot be dismissed.
Moreover, another confrontation could rapidly become a regional war, with Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militias, and the Houthis likely to join the fighting in one form or another. The assumption that a war against Iran can remain geographically contained is deeply questionable.
5. The global economic consequences could be severe. Another major conflict would almost certainly put substantial upward pressure on global energy prices, particularly if Iranian energy facilities were targeted and Tehran retaliated against Gulf energy infrastructure. The consequences would extend far beyond the Middle East, affecting global markets, inflation, and economic stability.
The bottom line is simple: Without a return to a diplomatic agreement, another military escalation in the Gulf increasingly appears difficult to avoid. But that does not mean another war would achieve its strategic objectives.
Even a highly destructive campaign targeting Iran's most critical infrastructure may fail to produce meaningful strategic gains. Instead, the United States and Israel could find themselves trapped in another prolonged war of attrition, with no decisive outcome, mounting economic costs, and an increasingly unstable Middle East.
The fundamental lesson of the previous campaigns should be clear: Military superiority does not automatically translate into strategic success.
Before launching another war, Washington and Jerusalem must answer a basic question: What exactly can another military campaign achieve that the previous ones failed to accomplish, and what is the exit strategy if Iran refuses to back down?
There is no kinetic solution to the Iranian challenge. Ignoring that reality risks repeating the same strategic mistakes, only at a much higher cost.
#Iran
#iran
U.S. and Israel Draw Up Plans for Renewed Strikes on Iran After Elections nytimes.com/2026/10/21/us/po…
Ali Vaez retweeted
The U.S. is quietly withdrawing troops from bases in Jordan, Qatar and Kuwait while reducing diplomatic staff across the Middle East amid threats from Iran.
Source: NBC News
Intended for provocation is a better description than power projection



















