
Trading and Macro Economics Options (Put-selling, Call hedging) Find edge in $BTC treasuries NY | Long Live Bitcoin.
New Jersey, USA
Joined June 2016
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SATS is Live!
Congratulations to the Team at Strive.
Strive’s 15% perpetual preferred closed and began trading on Nasdaq today.
Announced Tue Oct 13 at 5M shares,
Priced Thu Oct 15 upsized to 7M at $90:
~$630M gross, ~$608M net.
Day one so far (1:37 PM ET):
$95.00, +5.6% vs the $90 offer,
656,274 shares traded.
SATS sits below SATA and above the common, and Strive has no debt. $105M a year in SATS dividends (15% on $700M stated), the first 18 months set aside in a $157.5M reserve.
Amplification is 46.4% on Strive’s dashboard (SATA only). If all the net proceeds were held as bitcoin it would be ~57.9% by my arithmetic, against Strive’s stated objective of above 60% while BTC is under $100k.
Note: Currently there is a error where SATS is still being seen by some platforms as an Echostar product. Management is aware and is having the issue fixed.
$ASST $SATA $SATS $MSTR $STRC
cc. @GrainofSaltSF @ZynxBTC @ColeMacro
AngryBuhda retweeted
Shenanigans are afoot. On Sat., 97.6% of the #Bitcoin that moved had last moved less than 7 days ago, the highest share on any day since Nov 7, 2022.
What this tells us: the coins moving are mostly the same recent coins going around again, while older holders sat still.
AngryBuhda retweeted
$MSTR holders are more convicted than Bitcoiners. And the data proves it.
@SullyMichaelvan joins @AdamBLiv to break down the sentiment data behind amplified Bitcoin, $BTC's philosophical civil war, and why he thinks we’re in a disbelief rally.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:39 Bitcoin’s Philosophical Civil War
06:29 Why Buy Bitcoin Treasury Companies
11:30 The Merton Model Explained
22:33 Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Historic Lows
32:41 How Michael Measures Sentiment
37:47 MSTR Holders Vs. Bitcoiners
44:20 The Coldcard Divide
47:49 Strive Sentiment After The Reverse Split
53:48 Is The Bitcoin Bottom In?
57:07 Bitcoin’s Correlation With Gold
59:29 Closing Thoughts
AngryBuhda retweeted
New in the Monster Model: BTC rating charts for @Strategy and @Strive!
A preferred equity's $BTC rating is the company's #Bitcoin NAV divided by everything that ranks at or above that preferred: net convertible debt plus the notional of each senior or pari passu preferred. A rating of 1.0 means the Bitcoin just barely covers those claims. Higher ratings mean more cushion. The higher the rating, the more credit-worthy the instrument.
The Monster Model displays these BTC ratings across two new charts:
→ Strategy: $STRF, $STRC, $STRE, $STRK and $STRD
→ Strive: $SATA and $SATS
Each chart contains recent history plus projections under whatever parameters you set. (For now, the charts are not part of the default set, so you'll need to add them manually via the chart picker.)
Along with the charts, the BTC ratings — which were previously computed within the Monster Model but not displayed — now use net convertible debt, meaning convertible debt minus USD assets, floored at zero. Previously, the formula counted the full convertible balance without considering USD. Note that once a company's cash covers its convertible notes, that debt no longer counts against the preferreds. (This mimics how Strategy calculates BTC rating.)
The new charts also exposed a display bug. The first time I opened the Strive chart, the y-axis, from bottom to top, read: 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 6.
Despite this head-scratching sequence, nothing was wrong with the model's numbers. Each chart splits its y-axis into a fixed number of evenly spaced ticks. That works fine for prices and dollar totals, but BTC ratings live in a narrow band, often between 1 and 6. Spread across that band, the ticks landed at 0, 0.7, 1.4, 2.1 and so on, and rounding them to whole numbers produced the repeats.
Showing a decimal on every label would have fixed it, but it made the axes busier and harder to read. That works on both linear and log scales. The log case needed its own handling, since the default log ladder includes values like 0.8 and 2.5.
Both rating charts use the new label format. The Strive chart reads 0 1 2 3 4 5 6. The Strategy chart opens on a log scale, because STRF's rating can climb into the thousands once net debt reaches zero, and its labels run 1 2 3 ... 10 20 ... 1,000.
Special thanks to @altols for inspiring the new charts! 🥳🧡
monstermodels.live
$MSTR $ASST
AngryBuhda retweeted
On Tuesday, Fidelity @DigitalAssets published a paper that called Digital Credit Preferred Stocks like $STRC and $SATS "The Newest Demand Catalyst in Bitcoin".
In this week's video, I walk through the paper and what it means to income investors and retirees...
Why I’m buying the Bitcoin assets Fidelity just highlighted
AngryBuhda retweeted
“Bitcoin lending in the sense that it is right now will actually start to die...”
- @ColeMacro of @Strive puts btc-backed loan providers on notice 👀
🎥 Catch all the insights and spicy takes on YouTube: youtu.be/cCnvVTbfDC8
AngryBuhda retweeted
BTC is up nearly 50% from its June lows, but the bigger story may be what comes next.
While returns have diminished across cycles, a move from $100K to $200K could happen faster than the initial road to $100K. Research Analyst Zack Wainwright explores why in the latest Chart Chatter. ⬇️
AngryBuhda retweeted
Today's dip on-chain (24h as of 11:36 PM ET):
Short-term holders took the losses: -$68M realized, vs +$66M on a typical day.
Long-term holders moved 29% less BTC than usual, and what they did move left at a +$175M profit.
Fear came from new coins. The giant slept through it. #Bitcoin
AngryBuhda retweeted
Thanks again for your time @ColeMacro. We could have continued for hours 😅
Here's a recording of the space for anyone that missed it. $ASST $SATA $SATS
xitter.cf/i/spaces/1aKbdEgWQbQJX
Eric has worked very hard pulling Data from his node over the years.
Worth the follow.
Better than a Glassnode premium subscription.
@JoeCarlasare I asked him to query what you were wanting to see yesterday.
cc. @TheSamsPodcast @GrainofSaltSF
$BTC $ASST $SATA $SATS $MSTR $STRC
AngryBuhda retweeted
$ASST is already the second largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world, let's prove it with math.
The $630 million $SATS IPO launch left them with $608 million in net proceeds.
They already have the dividend reserve from $SATS funded from the warrant expiry.
They already have 36,818 $BTC.
If they already bought the $BTC and have a cost basis of less than $84,656 (extremely likely) then they have more than 44,000 $BTC.
Congratulations @Strive can't wait until it's official on Monday morning.
New June 27' expo on ASST came out but @GrainofSaltSF caught something odd.
Top Strike = $36
Only thing I can think of is when the exception rolled out it took effect on all the available expos but maybe this one was priced during the drawdown at the old +50% rule?
Would really appreciate some clarity on this
cc. @PunterJeff @ColeMacro @Strive
$ASST $SATS $SATA
Max for June 27' is $46 now on Hood.
@PunterJeff said they were working on it yesterday.
I'm curious to know the details.
AngryBuhda retweeted
Bitcoin holding up this well after the late August rally is an exceptional bull signal for the asset.
When you look at the data, Bitcoin just did something it’s only done twice since 2015.
It reclaimed the short-term holder cost basis after 60+ days underwater, and has held it for 62 days now.
There have been 10 reclaims like this since 2015. But 8 failed within 46 days.
The two that held:
March 2019 → +56% in 1 year, +1,327% in 2 years
January 2023 → +127% in 1 year, +401% in 2 years
Today: $84.6K price vs. $74.7K cost basis (+13.3%), and that floor is rising every day.
AngryBuhda retweeted
Joined RE: Bitcoin with @chasepalmieri. He asked several excellent in-depth questions about Strive I've never been asked publicly before. Hope you enjoy the conversation.
TIMESTAMPS
00:00 - Strive and Bitcoin Amplification
01:50 - Amplification Risk and Reward
04:04 - Market Demand and Institutions
06:57 - Outperforming Bitcoin
10:06 - Growth and Capital Strategy
13:00 - Bitcoin Balance Sheet and Digital Credit
18:01 - Daily Dividends and Market Impact
21:04 - Collaboration and Competition
24:50 - Digital Credit Yields and Risks
29:59 - Bitcoin Loans and Collateral
39:48 - Long-Term Strategy and Outlook
$ASST $SATA $SATS
Mocha has built the most comprehensive modeling tool out there for both Strive and Strategy and gave it to the community for free.
Nothing else comes close.
It's a lot to take in but you'll get your bearings the more you play with it.
AI will help you all get up to speed on it.
$ASST $SATA $MSTR $STRC
Just a friendly reminder to $MSTR and $ASST shareholders. 📝
If you are trying to calculate growth scenarios — whether they be bear cases, bull cases, fair value for next week, next month, next year, or any other flavor of forward valuation on the common equity of either @Strategy or @Strive — and you're not using the Monster Model, you're doing life on hard mode.
Because it's not a model so much as a computer custom-designed for #Bitcoin treasury math.
The Monster Model is my gift to you. ✨🧡
monstermodels.live

























