Data Analyst. MLB/NFL Predictive Analytics. Venmo @aprosanalytics 🍻🇺🇸🇮🇪 *Not official financial advice, please wager responsibly*
Virginia, USA
Joined May 2025
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Shepherd APA retweeted
Parents, PLEASE check your kids’ Halloween candy. I just found a Snickers bar filled with Nathan MacKinnon's Olympic Gold Medal wide open miss
Shepherd APA retweeted
Palmer Luckey says analysts claiming it's too expensive to manufacture in the US are lying to protect megacorps
"I think I have a more realistic view than almost anybody. One of the problems with all these analysts that are telling you that it's going to cost $37,000 to build an American iPhone or $100,000 to buy an American computer."
"They're trying to prop up a status quo that the megacorporations want to keep going. They want to outsource everything. They want to hire cheaper non-American labor."
"They are willing to say and do anything to convince you that it can't be fixed, that it can't come back, that America is this helpless, neutered, post-relevant empire, and it is just not the case."
"How do I know that? Because I have to make stuff in America every day because I work in the defense industry. The stuff that Anduril makes every day is not actually that different from a computer. My drones are basically computers. They have memory, a GPU, a CPU, sensors, batteries, a rugged integration."
"The only difference between an Anduril attack drone and a laptop is a keyboard and a screen. That is not that hard to figure out, especially for a guy like me who started Oculus and comes from the consumer electronics space."
"We're not going to let people lie about what America can and can't do anymore. We're just going to do it."
Shepherd APA retweeted
🚨 BREAKING: SpaceX locked Anthropic into paying them $3.1 billion per MONTH for compute starting December
$37B a year
= $120.5 BILLION through 2029
Every month, ~80% of Anthropic's current revenue would be SpaceXSI compute bill
BIGGER than its Google and Amazon long-term deals
Anthropic warns short-term compute "carries a higher cost per unit" and will "compress our operating margin"
Shepherd APA retweeted
Justice Department Announces Innovative Whistleblower Rewards Program to Combat Fraud
Tipsters Eligible for up to $30,000 in Fast-Track Payments
“Protecting the American people from fraud remains a top priority for the Department of Justice,” said @AGToddBlanche. “The Fraud Whistleblower Incentive Program (WHIP) offers everyone the opportunity to be part of the solution, help expose fraud, and be rewarded quickly for their efforts. I urge all Americans to use this program and play an active role in bringing fraudsters to justice.”
🔗: justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-d…
Shepherd APA retweeted
NOT AT CHILI’S BABY
10.99 for a burger with fries, bottomless chips and salsa and unlimited drink.
Prices in the US have absolutely lost the plot.
$20 for a burger and fries
$4.37 a gallon for gas
$80+ for a driving lesson
$3+ for a bottle of soda
$25-$30 for a basic takeout meal
$30+ for a short Uber ride
$150+ a week for groceries for one person
$170+ a night for a “cheap” hotel
Rent prices through the roof
Everything costs more and somehow wages never seem to catch up.
At this point we’re just getting robbed.
Shepherd APA retweeted
Thank you for anyone who saw, shared, liked, hated, followed, or faded. Wild 24 hours, but I promise you can do big or better things yourself. My site capping.pro is free and always will be, zero premium bs, no membership or sign ups required.
Just go and find what helps your plays. There is so much value you can drive out of it with a little bit of time and your own intuitions. Two more plays on the weekend I didn’t want to even share but if I tucked something after last nights attention and something happened that would feel wrong. So last thing I’m thinking before this collapses for me 😭🫣🙏❤️
Shepherd APA retweeted
My girl watching me nail the “nothing on my end” after sitting quietly on a client zoom call the past 45 minutes
Shepherd APA retweeted
This is why Anthropic and OpenAI are panicking and saying "AI is going to kill everyone."
They had the market captured before. Now they don't.
Normal people & enterprise companies don't need cracked-out, borderline-AGI models like Astra and Fable for their daily work. It's too expensive.
The market shifted towards using open weights models that offer 95% of the same capability at 1-2% of the price.
These guys totally underestimated their competition, IPOs are now cooked, and they're absolutely panicking. So they're trying to create a regulatory cartel and have all of their competition banned. That's all it comes down to.
Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway:
🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6%
While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2).
(Do note that's the spend for inference of the model across providers (mostly in the US), not revenue going directly to the open weight labs.)
Shepherd APA retweeted
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.
Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.
So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.
If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.
Shepherd APA retweeted
Translation: The money has run out, the data centre investments are going to 0.
Shepherd APA retweeted
AI CEOs don't even pretend they have a viable business anymore, they just look at you like this
Shepherd APA retweeted
This whole voluntary AI development slowdown is complete bullshit.
They just can't support their planned capital expenditure burn rate w/o going bankrupt, and they can't IPO because their books are horrific.
So they want to ban open source models and get a taxpayer bailout.
