Intento ser de los que hacen que las cosas pasen. @GoyFriendlyok . Canadian Account: @urban_notes_
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2/3 de los palestinos cree que Israel debe desaparecer y todo debe ser una sola Palestina árabe del rio al mar, con legislación inspirada en el Corán.
1/3 cree que debe haber dos estados, uno árabe y el otro (Israel) también, por inmigración de 6 millones de árabes.
Este es el núcleo del conflicto, que no se resolverá hasta que reconozcan a Israel como Estado judío y dejen de insistir con el “derecho al retorno”. Nunca, lo harán y por eso nunca habrá un Estado palestino.
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
The surprising results of the election makes me think about the parallel reality we’ve been living in for the past three years. If the polls were that far off, perhaps they were also wrong about what the public wanted on the hostage deal, the war and who should be prime minister. In other words, we’ve been living in a reality we thought was unfolding, when in fact a different one was unfolding.
If you look at the vote shift itself, almost no seats moved from the Netanyahu bloc to the change bloc. The decline has three causes. First, the Arab vote increased by a dramatic one percentage point. Second, no votes were “wasted” on the Meretz and Balad side, as they were last time. And third, about 2.5 percent of the votes were “wasted” on the Netanyahu bloc’s side: Ofer Winter, a few scattered votes for Noam and Leitner, and the Ethiopian Immigrants Party.
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
⭕️ ISRAEL ELECTION ANALYSIS: EISENKOT'S FOUR PATHS TO POWER — AND WHY EACH IS COMPLICATED
With 48 seats projected for the change bloc, Gadi Eisenkot faces four possible scenarios for forming Israel's next government.
1. UNITY GOVERNMENT WITH NETANYAHU
Eisenkot could join Netanyahu in a national unity government and demand either the premiership or a rotation agreement.
The obstacle? Neither leader may be willing to surrender the top job. A deal appears politically difficult.
2. GOVERNMENT WITH ARAB PARTY SUPPORT
The change bloc, Joint List and Ra'am hold a projected combined 67 seats.
But this arrangement would create major political contradictions, particularly if Eisenkot has promised not to rely on anti-Zionist parties.
Military conscription, Gaza, Iran, and national security decisions could create serious divisions from day one.
3. BRING THE ULTRA-ORTHODOX PARTIES INTO HIS COALITION
Eisenkot could try to persuade religious parties to abandon Netanyahu.
But a fundamental obstacle remains: IDF conscription.
Eisenkot's commitment to expanding military service clashes with ultra-Orthodox parties' opposition to mandatory enlistment for their communities.
Any agreement could require significant concessions.
4. FAIL TO FORM A GOVERNMENT
If Eisenkot cannot assemble a workable coalition, he could return the mandate.
That would open the door for another candidate to try to form a government and, if all efforts fail, potentially another election.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
Eisenkot's challenge is not simply finding 61 Knesset members. It is finding 61 members who can agree on military service, national security, and the country's direction.
Winning enough parliamentary support to form a government is one thing. Keeping that government together is another.
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
Results from 100% of the votes counted, excluding double-envelope ballots:
53-48-19
Netanyahu with a 5 seat advantage.
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
Eisenkot’s dilemma:
1. His failed “change coalition” will be crushed at a second election if they use the Jihadi-supporting Joint List to “stick it to the right” and temporarily get their Bibi scalp.
2. If he doesn’t, but also doesn’t partake in some form of unity coalition, Netanyahu, from the comfort of the Prime Minister’s chair, will run out the clock and call new elections in May, in which he will do better, since he lost 5% of the right-wing votes to Winter’s and Hendel’s failed start-up parties. Also, events in the region—war with Iran, and perhaps peace with the Saudis—will likely play to Netanyahu’s favour.
3. So the smart play for him is to offer Netanyahu his party in a unity coalition, but he comes with a very weak hand, since he won’t be able to bring the leftists under Golan with him, or Liberman’s party (whose entire career is focused on unseating Netanyahu).
And what would be in it for Netanyahu? Netanyahu is aware of points 1 and 2 above. He could simply play out the clock, let the negotiations fail, blame Eisenkot, and come back with the extra few seats he needs in May. Would he betray his reliable hard-right and Haredi allies for what could be a short-term coalition? Unlikely.
The problem is that when someone has the choice of who gets to extort them, nobody gets to do it. And that is the definition of power. Optionality. All Eisenkot’s options are bad, all Netanyahu’s are good.
Yair Golan—former IDF deputy chief of staff and leader of the “Democrats”, a hard-left party formed of the cumulative mergers over decades of a series of far-left, even Stalinist groups into Israel’s once-hegemonic Labor Party—wants his erstwhile allies in the failed (for it has indeed failed) “anti-Netanyahu anti-Haredi change coalition”, Eisenkot, Lapid, Bennett and Lieberman, to use these Hamas sympathisers of the Joint List, who here dedicate their results “to Gaza”, to oust the Zionist right and Netanyahu, even as the IDF battles to mop up the remnants of Hamas in Gaza.
This eventuality would be Netanyahu’s fever dream—a martyrdom at the hands of a left-Islamist alliance he could paint as traitors—to be followed inevitably by a Jesus-like revival after three months.
They failed in their attempt to build a “change coalition” because they didn’t have a positive message. “We hate the Haredi and Netanyahu and we are gonna stick it to ’em” isn’t enough to win a majority. It also won’t be enough to justify to their electorates at the next election—which will be very soon if Yair Golan’s plan wins out—why they allied with actual enemies.
This is a choice they actually can’t make anyway, since a number in their 48-ish-sized bloc won’t go along with it. So it’s just moot, and the merely performative act of floating it is damaging to their cause. But amazingly, this man who, but for a speech comparing IDF soldiers to the Third Reich on Memorial Day, would have replaced Eisenkot as IDF chief of staff in 2019, is no great strategic thinker.
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
Tragic. I would have no idea this was Jennifer Lawrence without the post below mentioning it.
She underwent plastic surgery to remove all her most distinctive features.
I wish women would stop doing this to themselves 😕
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
Tomorrow we're releasing a full UATX course for free: all 19 lectures of Professor Isabella Reinhardt's Rise and Fall of Ancient Rome, filmed in class with our students.
It runs from Rome's mythical founding to the Third Century Crisis. It ends on a question the class spent a whole session arguing about: did Rome ever really fall?
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
If you had told me pre 10/7 that Gideon Sa’ar and Ze’ev Elkin would be back on stage with Netanyahu and the rest of the Likud singing Hatikvah, I would have called you insane.
I would have dismissed you if you also told me that Netanyahu would get the endorsement of the Druze spiritual leader after all the uproar over their concerns about the passing of the new basic law.
But Netanyahu managed to consolidate a lot of political gains in 3 years and he did that in part through military action and foreign policy that brought both to his side.
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
Paulon tiene el asilo selectivo se ve.
Si @JMilei sabía y fue parte del operativo, acaba de ayudar a un acusado en la Justicia a profugarse.
El Presidente sigue atentando contra el vínculo diplomático con nuestro principal socio y hermano regional.
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
Asilo territorial, regulado por la Convención sobre Asilo Territorial que fue ratificada por ley 24.055.
Presenté denuncia penal en la Justicia Federal de Puerto Iguazú. Flávio Bolsonaro tiene prohibido salir de Brasil por orden judicial. Los medios ubican su ingreso clandestino por Iguazú, un jet de matrícula argentina esperándolo para volar a EE.UU. y a la ANAC frenando ese despegue. Mientras tanto, el Gobierno dice que "nunca ingresó".
Si entró, alguien lo dejó entrar. Si lo quisieron sacar por un aeropuerto federal, alguien miró para otro lado.
Pedí preservar las cámaras del puente y del aeropuerto, los planes de vuelo, la lista de pasajeros y el contrato del chárter, e investigar por tráfico de personas en tránsito e incumplimiento de los deberes de funcionario público. La frontera argentina no es un pasillo VIP de nadie. La soberanía no se negocia ni se presta.
Fiel al compromiso de seguir dando testimonio en tiempos difíciles.
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
These votes are soldiers, diplomats and incarcerated.
Soldiers, the largest of these, will trend fairly strongly to the right according to the polls. Youth in Israel sharply trending rightward.
Diplomats (about 5000) toward the Zionist left.
Incarcerated (about 10,000) toward the anti-Zionist Arab block.
In short, the allocation will shift somewhat toward the right-leaning Zionist parties and slightly to the Arab block. The losers will be the Zionist left-block.
🚨 ISRAEL’S ELECTION: 600,000 VOTES COULD RESHAPE THE SEAT MAP
Approximately 600,000 “double-envelope” ballots from soldiers and other eligible voters are expected this year—roughly equivalent to 15 Knesset seats’ worth of votes, according to Ariel Kahana.
These ballots affect both party totals and the number of votes needed per seat. Counting is expected to finish Thursday.
The takeaway: election-night projections may shift substantially. These are votes still to be counted—not 15 seats automatically going to any bloc.
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
Here's a video from Israel's first election campaign in 1949 as a reminder that:
1. It's the 10th oldest continuous democracy with full universal suffrage from its first day, including Arab citizens it just fought in war.
2. There have been no military coups, civil wars, emergency governments, suspensions of political or civil liberties, or canceling of elections, surviving even the assassination of a prime minister.
3. It's the only independent democratic state created after WWII to never fall, even temporarily, into some kind of authoritarianism.
4. When you were referring to people living in Palestine pre-1948 you were referring to Jews who were working to reconstitute their state from 2,000 years prior, and succeeded. Big time.
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
Mi madre escapó de la Rumania comunista escondida en el baúl de un automóvil. El régimen permitía salir a mis abuelos, pero les exigía dejar a su hija como rehén.
Cruzaron la frontera yugoslava con Italia, embarcaron en Génova y vivieron un año en Montevideo, porque el fascista de Perón les impedía entrar a la Argentina, donde tenían familia.
Mi madre tuvo que huir del comunismo. Mis abuelos también tuvieron que escapar de él. Y al llegar a América, se encontraron con otro fascista que les cerró las puertas.
Nazis, comunistas y fascistas: distintas banderas, la misma mierda.
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
1300 nuevos puestos de trabajo en Escobar.
Inauguramos en Escobar nuestro centro de almacenamiento más grande de la Argentina: más de 100 mil m² para procesar hasta 130 mil productos por día 📦
ALT ALT: Foto aérea del nuevo centro de almacenamiento de Mercado Libre en Escobar. La placa informa que tiene 100.000 m² de superficie, capacidad para almacenar hasta 2 millones de productos y que generará 1.300 nuevos puestos de trabajo, además de cientos de empleos indirectos.
A esta hora Ra’am de Mansour Abbas mete 4 parlamentarios con 3,8%, pero faltan contar los doble-sobre con votos de soldados y diplomáticos donde no hay muchos votos árabes. Si quedan por debajo del umbral electoral de 3,25 % van a 0.
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
La Dirección Nacional de Migraciones informa que a las 22:50 hs del dia 27/10, ingresaron por el paso fronterizo de Puente internacional Tancredo Neves en la provincia de Misiones, los ciudadanos Flavio Nantes Bolsonaro, Fernanda Antunes Figueira Bolsonaro, Carolina Figueira Bolsonaro y Luiza Figueira Bolsonaro, quienes lo hicieron con documentación hábil de viaje sin ningún impedimento legal para el ingreso al país, asimismo los tránsitos fueron registrados por la autoridad de aplicación sin incidentes.
Por su parte, a las 23:30 hs, la comitiva ingresante abordó un vuelo privado despachado por la compañía Baires Fly S.A con destino a la ciudad de Guayaquil, Ecuador, según se informó en el plan de vuelo.
RT @agusantonetti: Flavio Bolsonaro nunca llegó ni estuvo en vuelo a Estados Unidos (hasta hace pocos minutos). El Departamento de Estado t…
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
قناة الجزيرة ضحكت على الشعوب العربية لسنوات وقالت لكم ....ان العرب مضطهدين في اسرائيل وما عندهم حقوق ...ويعيشون حياة قاسية هههه
شوفوا حياتهم ....شوفوا ماذا يلبسون شوفوا هواتفهم شوفوا صحتهم ... عندهم مشاريع في دبي وامريكا واوربا وكندا ....هذا ماديا
وشوفوا الان الحرية والحقوق ...و كيف حصلوا على 11 مقعد في انتخابات رئاسية.
الحقيقة هي ما تشاهدونه بأعينكم ....وهي ان العرب يعيشون في اسرائيل حياة يحلم بها المواطن العربي في بلده....
Apu (🇦🇷🇨🇦 for 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇦) retweeted
This election was the perfect storm for the left. The peak of confidence and energy for the Zionist parties, a tidal wave of unprecedented proportions in the Arab vote.
And it wasn’t enough to install a left government with one of the Arab parties (Islamic Movement Unified List). It will still need the anti-Zionist Arab-Communist party (Meshutefet Joint List), and even at this hour, it appears very possible that even that is not enough.
The high water mark of the left and Arab parties isn’t enough.
In the end, new elections may happen, but the high water mark is just that; it only goes down from here for the left and the Arab parties.
