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Keegan Pearl

@ArgusPlatformAI

Navy, then SWAT, now defense software. Co-founder of ARGUS. I write about wargaming, AI that shows its work, and building from zero. https://teapawt.net/t.co/xDj7JQcha9

 Florida
argusplatform.ai
Joined September 2026
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Photo by Keegan Pearl (@ArgusPlatformAI)Photo by Keegan Pearl (@ArgusPlatformAI)Photo by Keegan Pearl (@ArgusPlatformAI)Photo by Keegan Pearl (@ArgusPlatformAI)Photo by Keegan Pearl (@ArgusPlatformAI)Photo by Keegan Pearl (@ArgusPlatformAI)Photo by Keegan Pearl (@ArgusPlatformAI)Photo by Keegan Pearl (@ArgusPlatformAI)Photo by Keegan Pearl (@ArgusPlatformAI)Photo by Keegan Pearl (@ArgusPlatformAI)
A decision on land rarely stays on land. ARGUS is being built for combat forecasting and wargaming across land, air, sea, cyber, and space. Evidence informs. People decide. argusplatform.ai
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The Germans took a bridge in the Ardennes. Then their heaviest tanks were too heavy to cross it. Speed means nothing if the road can't carry you. youtube.com/shorts/yieUsdvgn… #BattleOfTheBulge #WWII #MilitaryHistory
Hitler's Panzers Captured a Bridge. Their Tanks Were Too Heavy to Cross It #ardennes #ww2 #military

Hitler's Panzers Captured a Bridge. Their Tanks Were Too Heavy to Cross It #ardennes #ww2 #military

Ouren, Belgium, 17 December 1944, day two of the Battle of the Bulg...

youtube.com
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Pearl Labs: three products. ARGUS: inspectable defense planning and wargaming. FenceEstimatePro: estimates to invoices for fence contractors. Glassbox Review: DWI review with cited authorities. Same rule: show the work. Humans keep the call. Which lane would you ship first?
Dark green Pearl Labs card. Header: "Pearl Labs | Product card". Title: "Three products". Lists ARGUS, FenceEstimatePro, and Glassbox Review with one-line descriptions. Gold closing: "Same rule: show the work. Humans keep the call." Footer Pearl Labs wordmark.

ALT Dark green Pearl Labs card. Header: "Pearl Labs | Product card". Title: "Three products". Lists ARGUS, FenceEstimatePro, and Glassbox Review with one-line descriptions. Gold closing: "Same rule: show the work. Humans keep the call." Footer Pearl Labs wordmark.

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On this day in 1989, an East German spokesman was asked when new travel rules took effect. "Immediately," he said. Crowds hit Berlin's checkpoints that night and guards opened the gates. One improvised answer. Accident or inevitable? #ColdWar #BerlinWall #MilitaryHistory
Dark green ARGUS card. Header: "On this day | 9 November 1989". Title: "Berlin". Text about the spokesman answering "Immediately" and guards opening the gates. Gold question: "Accident, or inevitable?" Footer source line and ARGUS wordmark.

ALT Dark green ARGUS card. Header: "On this day | 9 November 1989". Title: "Berlin". Text about the spokesman answering "Immediately" and guards opening the gates. Gold question: "Accident, or inevitable?" Footer source line and ARGUS wordmark.

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Ten days into the Battle of the Bulge, Hitler's panzer divisions had more tanks in the repair shop than in the fight. 188 running. 224 under repair. (Seven panzer divisions, 26 December 1944.) You only see that when you follow nearly every division on both sides, day by day. So that's what we did. Part 1 of our first ARGUS documentary is out: The Battle of the Bulge, Day by Day. Hitler's last great offensive in the West needed four things: surprise, bad weather, speed and captured fuel. We tracked all four through a daily record of nearly every division in the campaign, compiled for the U.S. Army in 1987–90. What the records show: → Surprise worked. Within ten days, the other three had failed. → 22 December: the database logs 124 Allied sorties over the battle area. 23 December, when the sky cleared: 2,200. → Add up how far the records move every German division against opposition: about 60 km on the 23rd. On the 24th, just 3.5 km. → Germany's fuel wasn't missing. It was in the wrong place. On day one, the corps dumps held 1.5 to 2 of the 5 "consumption units" Field Marshal Model had asked for. As many as 9 or 10 may have been back at railheads near the Rhine. The Battle of the Bulge, Day by Day | The day Hitler's last offensive st... youtu.be/d30bOvJyaEU?is=Iiqa… via @YouTube
The Battle of the Bulge, Day by Day | The day Hitler's last offensive stopped

The Battle of the Bulge, Day by Day | The day Hitler's last offensive stopped

Hitler's last great offensive in the West needed four things: surpr...

youtube.com
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The journey as a solo founder is wild. Started out building fence estimation software and a CRM. Then, as a retired cop, I teamed up with other retired cops who became attorneys to build software that identifies potential errors in DWI police reports. Now I’m building ARGUS, a military decision-support platform grounded in historical evidence, while navigating government contracts, funding applications, and an entirely different industry. Three completely different problems. Three completely different industries. And somehow, each one led to the next. Moral of the story? Just start. Whatever “it” is for you. You don’t have to know where it’s going to take you.
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On this day in 1942 at El Alamein, Rommel asked Hitler for leave to fall back. No reply came. At 17:30 he ordered the retreat. With no trucks, most Italian infantry were left behind. Yesterday we asked: obey or pull back? Did he wait too long? #WWII #MilitaryHistory #Wargaming
Dark green ARGUS card. Header: "On this day | 4 November 1942". Title: "El Alamein". Text: "Rommel asked Hitler for permission to fall back. No reply came. At 17:30 he ordered the retreat. With no trucks, most Italian infantry were left behind." Gold question: "Did he wait too long?" Footer: "Sources: Playfair (2004); Bierman & Smith (2003), via Wikipedia" and the ARGUS wordmark.

ALT Dark green ARGUS card. Header: "On this day | 4 November 1942". Title: "El Alamein". Text: "Rommel asked Hitler for permission to fall back. No reply came. At 17:30 he ordered the retreat. With no trucks, most Italian infantry were left behind." Gold question: "Did he wait too long?" Footer: "Sources: Playfair (2004); Bierman & Smith (2003), via Wikipedia" and the ARGUS wordmark.

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On this day in 1942 at El Alamein, Rommel warned his worn-out army could not hold. Berlin's reply: stand fast, yield not a yard of ground. He later wrote for the first time in Africa he did not know what to do. Your call: obey or pull back? #WWII #MilitaryHistory #Wargaming
Dark green ARGUS card. Header: "On this day | 3 November 1942". Title: "El Alamein". Text: "Rommel reported his worn-out army could not hold. The answer from Berlin: stand fast, yield not a yard of ground. He ordered the line held." Gold question: "Obey the order or pull back?" Footer: "Source: The Rommel Papers (1953), via Wikipedia" and the ARGUS wordmark.

ALT Dark green ARGUS card. Header: "On this day | 3 November 1942". Title: "El Alamein". Text: "Rommel reported his worn-out army could not hold. The answer from Berlin: stand fast, yield not a yard of ground. He ordered the line held." Gold question: "Obey the order or pull back?" Footer: "Source: The Rommel Papers (1953), via Wikipedia" and the ARGUS wordmark.

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On this day in 1943: the Battle of Empress Augusta Bay. On a squally night off Bougainville, Task Force 39 used radar to turn a Japanese cruiser force away from the landings. At ARGUS we study nights like this. Your call: sensors or drills? #MilitaryHistory #Wargaming
Dark green ARGUS card. Header: "On this day | 2 November 1943". Title: "Empress Augusta Bay". Text: "Night action off Bougainville, Solomon Islands. Task Force 39 used radar to turn back a Japanese cruiser force sent against the beachhead." Gold question: "Sensors or drills: which carried the night?" Footer: "Source: Naval History and Heritage Command" and the ARGUS wordmark.

ALT Dark green ARGUS card. Header: "On this day | 2 November 1943". Title: "Empress Augusta Bay". Text: "Night action off Bougainville, Solomon Islands. Task Force 39 used radar to turn back a Japanese cruiser force sent against the beachhead." Gold question: "Sensors or drills: which carried the night?" Footer: "Source: Naval History and Heritage Command" and the ARGUS wordmark.

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What if you could take command at the Battle of the Bulge? Every dot is a real unit on a real date, 17 Dec 1944 to 16 Jan 1945 (HERO data). Watch the bulge open, then close. Which one decision would you change? #BattleOfTheBulge #WWII #MilitaryHistory #Wargaming
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The Ardennes, December 1944, day by day. ARGUS replays unit positions from the historical record, and the map fills in as the offensive grows.
p2-ardennes.png alt: Dark ARGUS card titled "Day by day. The map fills in." Three schematic map panels labeled early, mid and late December 1944 in the Ardennes. A front line bulges further west in each panel and more unit markers appear on both sides. Caption: positions replayed from the historical record. Small label: illustration, not a screenshot.

ALT p2-ardennes.png alt: Dark ARGUS card titled "Day by day. The map fills in." Three schematic map panels labeled early, mid and late December 1944 in the Ardennes. A front line bulges further west in each panel and more unit markers appear on both sides. Caption: positions replayed from the historical record. Small label: illustration, not a screenshot.

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Spent months building ARGUS, a wargaming platform. Last week I showed it to a room of wargamers and analysts. Fork a game from a real historical situation, play it against an AI commander, and get a battle report where every number shows its source or is marked modelled.
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ARGUS ranks which of 177 map cells will change hands each week, then scores itself in public. Week 2 of 8: 5 changed. Top 10 picks caught 4, missed 1. Brier 0.017 vs 0.029 for the base rate. Two weeks prove nothing. Every miss stays posted. github.com/pearl-labs-llc/ar…
Dark two-column scoreboard. Text: "Forecast series, scorecard. Week 2 of 8. Called it: 4. Missed: 1. 2 weeks counted, not evidence of skill. Top 10 picks. Every miss stays posted."

ALT Dark two-column scoreboard. Text: "Forecast series, scorecard. Week 2 of 8. Called it: 4. Missed: 1. 2 weeks counted, not evidence of skill. Top 10 picks. Every miss stays posted."

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On this day in 1944, off Samar, a small group of escort carriers called Taffy 3 found Japan's Center Force bearing down on them. The big U.S. battleships were up north, chasing a decoy. Every wargame deserves one question up front: what's our decoy?
Dark oil-painting style grey dawn sea in rain squalls. Small U.S. warships in the foreground lay white smoke while a line of large Japanese battleships with pagoda masts looms on the horizon, shell splashes nearby. Text: "On this day, 25 October 1944. Off Samar. The battleships were up north, chasing a decoy. First question in any wargame: what's our decoy?"

ALT Dark oil-painting style grey dawn sea in rain squalls. Small U.S. warships in the foreground lay white smoke while a line of large Japanese battleships with pagoda masts looms on the horizon, shell splashes nearby. Text: "On this day, 25 October 1944. Off Samar. The battleships were up north, chasing a decoy. First question in any wargame: what's our decoy?"

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We wrote the rule before the first score: after 8 confirmed weeks, ARGUS claims forecasting skill only if it beats the base rate with a 95% interval fully above zero. One week in. Where's your money?
0%It beats it
0%It doesn't
0%Coin flip
0%Show me week 8
0 votes • Final results
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Our model's challenger scored better in testing. We still didn't promote it. The interval on the difference crosses zero, so the gain could be noise. A gate that holds beats a number that looks good.
Dark ARGUS card titled "Better score. Not promoted." Two bars, champion and challenger, nearly equal length. Below, an interval on the difference spans zero. A red stamp reads NOT PROMOTED. Caption: the gain could be noise, so the champion stays.

ALT Dark ARGUS card titled "Better score. Not promoted." Two bars, champion and challenger, nearly equal length. Below, an interval on the difference spans zero. A red stamp reads NOT PROMOTED. Caption: the gain could be noise, so the champion stays.

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Someone dropped a real fruit fly brain map into an AI-generated world, and the fly can't tell it's fake. Wargamers know the feeling. Build a good enough sim and nobody stops to ask which parts are real. Label them anyway.
🤖 Made with AI
Dark night city seen from above, split down the middle. Left half is a real lit city tagged REAL, right half is a teal wireframe city tagged GENERATED, with a small fruit fly hovering on the dividing line. Text: "News, simulation. The fly can't tell. Label the parts anyway."

ALT Dark night city seen from above, split down the middle. Left half is a real lit city tagged REAL, right half is a teal wireframe city tagged GENERATED, with a small fruit fly hovering on the dividing line. Text: "News, simulation. The fly can't tell. Label the parts anyway."

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ARGUS's AI analyst, first 11 answers in production: 10 drafts tried to state a number it couldn't source. 7 fixed on repair. The rest got cut. 0 untagged numbers reached the screen. Showing it live at HAAC today.
Dark scoreboard card titled "No source, no number" with four boxes: 11 answers, 10 drafts with an unsourced number, 7 fixed on repair, 0 untagged numbers shown. Text below: "The rest of those sentences got cut. Every number on screen ties to a tool result. Live at HAAC today." Footer: ARGUS, production, from 19 Oct 2026.

ALT Dark scoreboard card titled "No source, no number" with four boxes: 11 answers, 10 drafts with an unsourced number, 7 fixed on repair, 0 untagged numbers shown. Text below: "The rest of those sentences got cut. Every number on screen ties to a tool result. Live at HAAC today." Footer: ARGUS, production, from 19 Oct 2026.

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Scorecard, week 1 of 8. Ground changed hands in 6 of 176 cells. Our top 10 picks caught 4 and missed 2. Brier 0.023 vs 0.034 for just guessing the base rate. One week proves nothing. Seven to go, and every miss stays posted. github.com/pearl-labs-llc/ar…
Dark two-column scoreboard. Text: "Forecast series, scorecard. Week 1 of 8. Called it: 4. Missed: 2. 1 week counted, not evidence of skill. Top 10 picks. Every miss stays posted."

ALT Dark two-column scoreboard. Text: "Forecast series, scorecard. Week 1 of 8. Called it: 4. Missed: 2. 1 week counted, not evidence of skill. Top 10 picks. Every miss stays posted."

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Tomorrow we show ARGUS at HAAC. Our one rule for every screen: if it can't say where a number came from, it doesn't go up. Also praying to the conference Wi-Fi gods. They have never once been on our side.
Dark empty stage with a laptop glowing on a lectern; the screen shows three blurred grey placeholder bars, each with a SOURCE tag, and a Wi-Fi icon with one bar. Text: "Tomorrow, HAAC demo. Where did that number come from? If it can't say, it doesn't go up."

ALT Dark empty stage with a laptop glowing on a lectern; the screen shows three blurred grey placeholder bars, each with a SOURCE tag, and a Wi-Fi icon with one bar. Text: "Tomorrow, HAAC demo. Where did that number come from? If it can't say, it doesn't go up."

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Reports this week put the Geran-5 at a turbojet and up to 600 km/h. A defense tuned for slow propeller drones now gets the same alarm with a lot less clock. If you model air defense, speed just became the input you can't hand-wave.
Dark radar scope with a slow track and a fast track, beside two timing bars, a long grey bar for a propeller drone and a short teal bar for the Geran-5. Text: "News, air defense. Less clock. Geran-5 / turbojet, up to 600 km/h. Same alarm. Shorter warning. Speed is the input you can't hand-wave."

ALT Dark radar scope with a slow track and a fast track, beside two timing bars, a long grey bar for a propeller drone and a short teal bar for the Geran-5. Text: "News, air defense. Less clock. Geran-5 / turbojet, up to 600 km/h. Same alarm. Shorter warning. Speed is the input you can't hand-wave."

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