Astrabiene retweeted
Congratulations to @isaraerospace.
Germany finally has its own access to space, from continental Europe, for the very first time. Roughly eighty years after German engineers made sure that both the Americans and the Soviets got there, we have managed to do it ourselves. Better late than never.
And what did it take? A bit of risk capital, and a handful of students who were not told to wait their turn.
Here is the part nobody outside Europe has noticed yet: more outstanding companies have been founded here in the last years than in the 40 years before that. The talent was never the problem. The science was never the problem. Europe has been quietly excellent at research for decades and quietly terrible at turning it into anything.
As so often, dawn is closest when the night is darkest.
What is still missing is a functioning capital market. And the evidence arrives on schedule.
Last week, ebm-papst, the German world market leader in fans and motors, was sold to Madison Air of Chicago at an enterprise value of roughly 5.4 billion dollars. This is a company sitting directly in the path of the data center buildout, one of the best structural growth stories in European industry. More than 250 million fans installed worldwide, the inventor of commercially viable EC fan technology.
So why did the owner families sell in the second generation?
Not because the business was weak. Because expansion would have required serious capital, and their realistic option was a bank loan. The American buyer had another one: existing cash and equity issued into a public market that will fund the growth.
Same asset. Same demand curve. Different capital structure. The buyer wins.
They build the technology. Someone else finances it and books the returns.
Pretty stupid. But until recently, it was also almost impossible for banks here to invest in the defense industry. It’s a wonder the industry even still exists.
The age of European naivety is over. But Europe still has a great deal of work ahead of it. Existential fear is a very powerful driving force.
And since this was such a trend on X last week: to those who were so proud to announce that they left Germany years ago because of too much bureaucracy, after benefiting from one of the best education systems in the world, stay in the shitholes you moved to and don’t come back.
It was embarrassing having to read those stories.
Many political problems resolve themselves simply because the political pendulum eventually swings back from one extreme, and it is already moving toward the center. Let’s hope it doesn’t swing too far to the right again.
Astrabiene retweeted
A few thoughts on today’s SemiAnalysis TPU report.
1. I am deeply disappointed with the way SemiAnalysis continues to report on these issues. I have raised the same concern before with Micron, CPO delays, SOCAMM, and 8 high HBM4. I do not think they simply fabricate stories out of thin air. The problem is how they communicate them. They often seem too quick to report information that has not yet been confirmed, and even when the underlying facts are directionally correct, the ambiguity in the wording and framing repeatedly creates major misunderstandings in the market.
2. This TPU report is another example. If you actually read the substance, the 2026 AVGO TPU downward revision is explicitly attributed to supply constraints and challenges ramping CoWoS S. The 2027 revision is attributed to greater Broadcom capacity allocation toward other customers such as Meta and OpenAI. The AMD discussion, meanwhile, is about a potential TPU v10 project.
The report does not establish any causal relationship between these two issues. Yet by placing them directly next to each other, it created a framing that could very easily be interpreted by institutional and professional investors quickly scanning the report as a simple
"AMD Long, AVGO Short narrative"
I am not saying that SemiAnalysis intentionally framed it this way. However, if they did not anticipate that kind of market interpretation, then I think this reflects a serious communication and editorial problem. On the other hand, if they did anticipate it, then I have to ask why they did not include even a single clear sentence explaining that the AVGO TPU downward revision was not being attributed to AMD.
3. Anyone who understands the ASIC business even at a basic level should know how dangerous this kind of overinterpretation can be. AVGO signed a long term agreement with Google just this April to develop and supply future generations of TPUs. The claim that AMD is already taking Broadcom’s TPU volume is simply not supported by the information presented in this report.
And if the AMD collaboration they are referring to is related to on package CPU cores, then that is not really a threatening area for AVGO in the first place, because Broadcom is not competing in the x86 CPU market. A much simpler interpretation would be that Google may need x86 cores for specific use cases, such as RL workloads, and AMD could be relevant there.
4. Today I spoke not only with people in the semiconductor industry, but also with a friend who works at a New York hedge fund. He agreed with my view completely, while also pointing out that we cannot ignore either the influence of SemiAnalysis reports or the direction in which capital ultimately moves.
Is this really healthy market behavior? This is the part that concerns me most.
I assume SemiAnalysis understands very well how much influence its reports can have on the market. If so, I believe that influence should come with a much greater degree of care in how information is framed and communicated. This is not the first time this year that I have had concerns about this type of reporting, which is why I felt it was important to call it out directly this time.
5. In the end, I believe the ASIC business comes down to the quality of the IP and the ability to secure sufficient manufacturing capacity. AVGO has competed with Marvell on these fronts for many years and has continued to survive and win. It will continue to face challenges from other competitors on these same fronts, whether that competitor is AMD, Marvell, or someone else.
So let us think again about what we should actually be asking.
Why did AVGO recently enter into such a large strategic MOU with Samsung?
What is AVGO preparing for next in its ASIC business?
From a technical perspective, what are the actual risks facing its ASIC business?
From AVGO’s perspective, in what ways could a more diversified customer base actually become a long term positive?
I believe these are the questions that deserve much deeper analysis.
Why does SemiAnalysis not address them?
I am genuinely disappointed with this report. At this point, I am honestly irritated that I keep having to spend my valuable time rechecking the same facts every time this kind of ambiguous reporting creates another round of confusion in the market.
Astrabiene retweeted
BREAKING: Nvidia $NVDA just disclosed updated stock positions.
They own:
-$30B worth in $INTC stock
-$21B worth in $SPCX stock
-$4.6B worth in $CRWV stock
-$3B worth in $COHR stock
-$2.2B worth in $NOK stock
-$2.1B worth in $SNPS stock
-$328M worth in $NBIS stock
-$14M worth in $GENB stock
Astrabiene retweeted
Rosenblatt had our backs; Citadel didn't.
$LITE $AAOI $COHR $FN $CIEN
Next time people start spreading FUD, remember which people had your back BUT ALSO which institutions were calling it right.
The bullish post of mine that made it into Fox Business was built on Rosenblatt's call.
THEY SAID SHORTS WOULD BE BUYING BACK AT THE END OF THE MONTH, going into the next ER season.
From my own post at the time:
"The shorts pushing that story don't even believe it themselves. They're already planning to cover into the late July prints and get back into optical in 2027 for scale-up CPO."
Then look at what actually happened over the next four weeks.
Rosenblatt had our backs the whole time.
So in my book:
Citadel = the devil incarnate.
Rosenblatt = calling it as it is.
🤖 Made with AI
RT @ren_stocks: Scale-out CPO switches going from 5,000 units this year to 200,000 by 2030. And you are selling?
That’s a 144% CAGR. A 40x…
Astrabiene retweeted
$ONDS before more acquisitions ONDS should blow away the 2027 rev estimate of $692 mm
Here’s bottoms up guesstimates
Sentrycs $120 mm
Work view $100 mm
Rotron $100 mm
Omnisys. $70 mm
Mistral $200 mm
Indo earth. $75 mm
4M defense. $50 mm
Roboteam. $50 mm
Bird. $60 mm
Iron drone. $75 mm
Optimus. $40 mm
Cyberhawk. $70 mm
Omberg. $75 mm
Apeiro. $18 mm
That totals $1,103 mm
This is before more massively accretive M+A
Let’s grow it organically at 40%
2028 $1544
2029 $2,162
2030 $3,026
2030 stated (and obviously dated) goal is 2030 revs $1.5 B and 30% ebitda
Should roughly double the 2030 rev goal. And if 30% ebitda we are talking $908 mm
So assuming no more acquisitions ONDS trades at 1.5x 2030 revs. And 5x 2030
ebitda
Easily deserves 30x plus ebitda w that kinda growth. In which case it’s a 6 bagger from here and a roughly $50 stock
Of course these numbers will be materially higher. As doesn’t include more massively accretive m+a.
Plus worldview revenue potential is beyond silly. If you have in 4-5 years 1000 balloons a year, each flying 90 days and generating $30k per day revenues the WV revenues world be $2.7 B. It’s just math, people. Whereas if we grow the above WV 2027 estimate of $100 mm at 40% we get $275 mm. That’s an extra $2 B in 2030 revs. Too much? Fine. Call it an extra $1.0 B and we’re talking $4.0 B in 2030 revs and $1.2 B in ebitda
However you look at it ONDS is a screaming buy.
And the acquisition strategy has been brilliant. Those who whine incessantly about dilution ain’t gotta a clue. World view for example is likely worth $5-10 B to ONDS. And they paid $150 mm. At the midpoint ($7.5 B) that a 50x return. Tell me again about dilution…,
Astrabiene retweeted
EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released.
Great news: Photonics is now confirmed to be the new structural addition to EU policy.
This is thematically bullish for the EU photonics sector.
Thematically:
- "This new component of the Chips for Europe Initiative supports the development of photonic integrated circuits and associated technologies"
- "building and strengthening advanced design, prototyping, and industrial deployment capacities for photonic integrated circuit technologies and other photonic technologies across the Union"
- "extend the Union’s design capabilities, including in photonics"
- "strengthen existing and develop new pilot lines and open-access semiconductor manufacturing facilities for the prototyping and production of photonic integrated circuits and associated photonic technologies
- "develop and maintain design libraries and design automation tools for photonic integrated circuits, associated photonic technologies"
===
More specifically policy specifically focuses on
-> co-packaged optics for AI data centres (CPO/interconnects focus is bullish read through for $SIVE)
-> “Silicon photonics … applications in high-bandwidth data-centre interconnects…”
-> Capabilities in production technologies including co-packaging and heterogeneous integration with electronic chips, manufacturing equipment, and materials platforms for photonic integrated circuits shall be strengthened ( $XFAB)
-> $SOI directly mentioned in impact analysis regarding structural strengths of the EU. "The EU has a relatively strong global position in SOI wafers, with Soitec and Siltronic being notable players"
-> $XFAB also directly mentioned in impact analysis, as part of creating the current funding framework.
Obviously structurally positive for $XFAB since they're literally leading the European Silicon Photonics Value chain and listed in First of a Kind (FOAK) category.
Initial interpretation, this is heavily positive for EU photonics leaders that go inside AI DCs as part of EU Policy. I'm expecting optical players broadly to get a tailwind from this framework.
TLDR: EU photonics structurally go brrr long term. Most positive confirmation is that photonics is structurally a part of European Union policy now.
We'll likely see the individual photonics names come out after this release, within 3-15 months (typically in the middle somewhere). Markets are forward looking in general.
Pretty obvious that today is one of these days where everybody is telling you "i told you so" "Have you listened" "i'm telling you since last year"
$Sive
Astrabiene retweeted
The German market is super underrated, I mean you got
Carl zeiss - for advanced mirrors
Infineon - for power semis
LPK - for laser drilling in glass chips
SUSS - for advanced packaging and wafer bonding
2G energy - for gas turbines
Aixtron - MCOVD machines
TRUMPF - CO2 lasers
Jenoptik -optics and photonics
Banger after banger
Astrabiene retweeted
$SIVE $SIVEF I was way too early to the party here. I heard of the company early from a good friend of mine who is very experienced in the 5G and telecom community. He gave me an introduction and view of the company and told me they have a great team and it’s only a matter of time until they get international investor attention.
Fast forward 5-6 years. Is now the time Sivers Semi Conductors is gonna rise to a multi billion dollar valuation? The company just announced they are evaluating the opportunity for a US Nasdaq listing which most likely will even out the large valuation gap between Sivers and it’s US competitors.
Sivers is not only an AI-photonics play but also a SATCOM/Wireless play covering defense, 5G/6G, satellite and DoD. They are right in the center of one of the most interesting market sectors at the moment. Interesting times for sure!
This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy, I’m just sharing my thoughts as I am still holding a position since many years back.
This should be possible within ~2 years
$ASTS
All that Amazon has to do is figure out how to copy AST‘s technology, without infringing, then build out huge satellites that actually work, then convince billions of subscribers to switch from their carriers
Easy Peezy
Astrabiene retweeted
$ASTS
All that Amazon has to do is figure out how to copy AST‘s technology, without infringing, then build out huge satellites that actually work, then convince billions of subscribers to switch from their carriers
Easy Peezy
Astrabiene retweeted
$ASTS successful back test of the breakout yesterday. Also the 8ema crossed back above the 20sma. A measured move would put this around $145-$165. Bumpy ride over the span of a month or so to get there.
Falling back into consolidation would negate the outlook.
*NFA
