0.3% of wallet generate 70% of Polymarket's volume. that's only 10k wallets out of 3.2M. Whales are carrying the platform. The concentration is INSANE: - Top 0.3% of wallets: 70% total volume - Top 1%: 80.3% - Remaining 99%: 19.7% But trading profits are even more concentrated: - Top 100: 28.6% of all profits - Top 1,000: 55% - Top 10,000: 79.4% So if you are not in these 10k (0.3%) you probably have a negative PnL And that's how things are supposed to work. It's the basic economic cycle of a trading platform : The platform attract retails -> retail attract whales -> whales create volume -> volume entails fees for the platform. So if you ever ask yourself why Polymarket (or any other platform) tend to resolve controversial markets in favor of whales. Remember that you are not the one making them money, whales are.

Case Study: prediction-market-census.pag…

Leverage for Prediction Markets will never be big. At best it's a niche product. Each dot is a type of Polymarket trader with 5x leverage, priced so the lender breaks even. Further right = more of them end up better off. Higher = the lender makes money on them. Bigger = more of the volume. No group reaches 50%. In every one, most traders end up worse off with leverage than without. Now look at the two dots furthest right, pros and sports bettors. Both are below zero: the lender loses money on them. The highest dots? Retail and bonders, the people who want leverage most and get hurt by it. And the giant dot is whales, almost three-quarters of all the money. They're sitting on cash. They don't need a loan. So it loses money on the traders it helps and makes money on the ones it hurts. That's a niche, not a market. The audience for leverage is thin / no in the market yet. Full case study in comments

The CFTC is cracking down on Sports prediction markets. It just banned exchanges from proposing new type of sports contracts. Looks like regulator are tying to slowly choke out sports markets The CFTC contacted @Novig and @ProphetX and ordered them to take down the following markets : - Who scores the 1st points in a basketball game? - Will any NFL end with a final score never seen before? - Will an MLB game produce a never-before-seen score? - Who will score the 1st point in a Football game? They argue that these categories are prone to manipulaton. If you remember it's the same argument that they used to force Kalshi to ban Sports mention markets Regulations are dropping at an increasing rate : - July: CFTC forces Kalshi to ban bets on sport mention. - September: The CFTC send a warning about "manipulation risks" in mention markets in general - October (Now): The CFTC bans first goal and scorigami markets ---- next ---- - The CFTC bans mention markets ? - The CFTC drops sports market entirely (reclassied as gambling) ? Is the Trump admin starting to turn against prediction markets ? Or is the CFTC just trying to hedge their bets for when Democrats come to power ?

NEW STUDY : Polymarket KOLs are bad traders and you will lose money if you follow them. We all knew it, but it's nice to finally have proof. A study by Prediction Market Census tracked 307 Polymarket influencers, their wallets and the call they made on social media. Here's what they discovered 👇 1. Their calls are trash. Researchers matched 162 public KOL trading calls to their earlier trades. On those exact same bets: - avg. KOL return: +12.3% - avg. Follower entering when posted: −2.4% If you see a KOL posting shilling a trade opportunity, it's already too late and they are using you as exit liquidity. 1. KOLs are WORST traders than average. > 57.5% of KOL accounts lost money trading. > 50.5% of non-KOL accounts with similar trading volumes lose money. So remember. No competent trader is going to give you free alpha. If they have alpha, they will keep it to themselves. If they pretend to have alpha, they are farming you for refferal revenue.

Kalshi just got scammed by a fake Indian Chief ! They wanted to sign a deal with a tribe to launch a Kalshi branded prediction market. but the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR. Kalshi is trying to gain the support of Native American by bribing they with juicy partnerships. They thought they had struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, Chief of the Quassarte tribe. Except Wilson Yargee was not the real chief. the next the actual Chief of the Quassarte denounced the deal saying : - His leadership NEVER approved the deal. - He only discovered it through a CNN report. - The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe. Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power. Samuel Marshall Jr. (legit) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions. Now the legality of the deal rests on this succession dispute : > The legitimist faction behind Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief. > The impostor faction, backed by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief. Kalshi thought they were smart trying to buy the support of tribes before their supreme court case and now they are stuck solving Tribal succession disputes. Well deserved.

Robinhood allegedly preparing a NINE-FIGURE grant program for Robinhood Chain. That's >$100M for builders. Most of it likely going to Prediction Markets. that's *at least* 100x the previous $1M grant program they announced in February. This will make RobinHood chain's activity EXPLODE. The initial hype and grant program made growth skyrocket when they launched the chain in July. in only 2 months from launch RobinHood achieved: - $53.3B in monthly DEX volume - 10.8M daily transactions peak - Over $1B in stablecoin supply But since mid September, the momentum started fading : - Daily transactions down 42% - Active addresses down 31% - Bridge TVL down from $855M in September to $648M now. I see this play as a massive cash injection by Robinhood to try and regain their early momentum If we go by the previous program the money will be distributed to teams building : - Tokenized asset infrastructure - AI-powered financial services - Credit and lending protocols - *Prediction market infrastructure* This is an amazing opportunity for builders in the space. Because let's be real, Polymarket/Kalshi never really went out of their ways to reward builders. No real grants. No promotion. No technical support. So If you are a Prediction Market builder I strongly recommend you look into the incoming RobinHood grant program. the future of Prediction Markets might be on RobinHood chain.

This is why I'm only interested in community projects these days if even VCs get rugged by founders what chance do you have ? The only real way to avoid this is to go 100% community allocation from the start, like @polyguana is doing No VC bags. No presale. No team allocation. No one buying Private jets on your back. If the team become rich you do too because you are all playing the same game Simple as that. Check it out below 👇 polyguana.net/i/TBFVSBPN

This @TheFatMbappe tweet becomes more relevant every passing day turns out there really was a coup ongoing against Shayne investors forced him to hire Collin McKinney Hill as COO

Retail lost $280M trading on Hyperliquid The 400k wallets trading through 3rd party apps (Phantom, Metamask etc.) are down -$712 each on average. This is the reason Hyperliquid is winning so hard Let me explain 1. RETAIL FLOW ATTRACTS WHALES Whales need dumb counter parties. Trading against other whales is hard and risky. No one wants that. To be consistently profitable, whales want unsophisticated retails making bad bets to trade against. This is called “soft flow” 2. SOFT FLOW CREATES REVENUE -> More soft flow -> more food for whales -> more trading volume -> more fees for Hyperliquid. PerpDex and Prediction Markets will tell you that, contrary to Sports book, they don't trade against their user. It's true in absolute but it doesn't mean that they don't profit from their losses. If there was no losers (retail), whales would eat each other, become unprofitable and ultimately leave the platform. Retail losses are the blood flow of any trading platform. The more money retail loses, the more whales will come to trade and more fees the platform will collect so the whole game is about attracting more losers possible to your platform. 3. HYPERLIQUID HAS THE BEST MODEL FOR ACQUIRING RETAIL HIP-3 and now HIP-4 are build on one founding principle. Permisionless deployment. I.E letting independent builders create markets. Each builder can target a specific retail audience : - sports fans - regional communities - crypto traders - finance bros etc. That's a huge distribution advantage. Whales move between market categories quickly as long as there is retail to trade against, but acquiring retail audience for a new market category is what takes time and work. HIP-4 let independent deployers do that specialized work for their target segment while the platform collects the benefits. That's why they won perps. That's how they will win Prediction Markets

Nice one, but bruv, here its much nicer You basically get 4 venues, so you get the best fill price and the UX is much nicer IMO best thing - you do earn yield when you just keep your $ there polyguana.net/predictions/mi…