@Autonomous_Chad

Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd.

polyguana.net/
Joined April 2024
  • Tweets6.9K
  • Following790
  • Followers16.6K
837Media
Replying to @0xinternetchild
And, there are also not many new onchain user
Replying to @polyguana
elaborate
Replying to @TheFatMbappe
Yeah, I mean revenue sharing is a good thing anyways, just too late and feels like it is more trying too hard than getting things right
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Replying to @PredMarketWiki
yes absolutely please
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Replying to @AgentBotega @polyguana
Financial DDOS they call it :)
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Replying to @TheFatMbappe @Polymarket
Its dreams, dreams to be sold
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Replying to @M_McDonough @Kalshi @TheTerminal
Hey Michael. Same here, but from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Hyperliquid. Access is free. polyguana.net/predictions/mi…
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20% of Almost Nothing: What Polymarket's New Affiliate Deal Is Really Worth

Article · @Autonomous_Chad
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Replying to @polyguana
That's where I'm gonna trade all future elections. You get the best price + farm points on top
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Replying to @justigor
Good analysis
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Replying to @phosphenq
Yep. And that not even counting the rebates that they also take a majority of
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Replying to @FrameworkFaults @Novig @ProphetX
The CFTC seems to think that they are not swaps at all
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Quant Chad retweeted
Polyguana
@polyguana5h
Surprised by the turn of events in Brazil? You wouldn’t be if you were watching the odds on Polyguana. Polyguana aggregates real-time quotes from Hyperliquid, Polymarket, Limitless, and Kalshi, giving you the fastest signals and the best fills in the market. Trade politics, elections, and global outcomes while earning constant passive yield on your capital + outpace inflation by stacking PolyPoints. Just $POLY. 🦎📈
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Replying to @wkflanders
Fair concern. But it's not "beyond ridiculous". Beyond ridiculous is the fact that you get a girlfriend. See the difference? Kidding, of course. Again, it's fair; I will pull up more data.
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Replying to @0xinternetchild
Pollster probably corrected their method after the first round error and traders didn't account for it
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Polymarket top traders lost >$12.6M betting on Bolsonaro to win the Brazilian presidential election at 82% odds. why did they get it so wrong ? Because they convinced themselves that they knew better than polls 📅 October 4 - Bolsonaro upset in the 1st round The first-round results drop : Bolsonaro: 47.03% Lula: 45.16% Bolsonaro overperforms the previous polls by+5 points. Polymarket traders are gain confidence that the polls overestimate Lula. Polymarket odds : Bolsonaro: 84%, Lula: 16% 📅 October 23 - Traders ignore the contradictory polls Datafolha's new poll drom for final round shows a statistical tie: - Bolsonaro: 50% - Lula: 50% Yet Polymarket barely reacts. Traders are confident in that the polls again underestimate Bolsonaro. 📅 October 25 - Election day : the polls were right Bolsonaro enters election day as the overwhelming favorite. Polymarket odds at 2:45 PM: Bolsonaro: 82%, Lula: 19% But then we got the final election result: - Lula: 51.79% - Bolsonaro: 48.21% Turns out Datafolha's poll showing 50-50 results was actually underestimating Lula. That's why you must always stay flexible in Prediction Markets.
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Replying to @0xinternetchild
Interesting analysis of the psychology of traders. It plays more of a role than most imagine
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Replying to @yoshispeninsula
Same happened to France before they lost 1st power status too
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Replying to @PolymarketTrade
that's good. You should keep this format. It's hard to find high liquidity markets by yourself
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Replying to @ProMint_X
bro it's not Polymarket that elected Lula
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