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Australia
Joined August 2018
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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
Keynesian economics📜 is a flawed system, yet it can seem genius if its tightening mechanisms are actually enforced before letting the economy reach stratospheric heights.
Instead, we always play the blame game when discussing solutions and fixes. What we are witnessing right now is the unwinding of an asset bubble that should never have been allowed to rise so high.
Trying to intervene in a market that is desperately seeking equilibrium especially within the "golden zone" spread between wages and housing is a fool's errand.
The bond market is currently in control. It is being allowed to do the heavy lifting of tightening, which means the political blame game is completely misdirected; this is a case of passive restraint.
Australia does not just need a great unwinding ..the entire global economy does. A reset is desperately needed, and fortunately or unfortunately, it has been a long time coming.
Interest rates are finally normalising, and fear has set in.
God knows what will happen if rates overshoot significantly.
Outright panic!!
Yours truly,
The Great Martis💫
Wow, my latest video on YouTube is absolutely taking off with over 1.1k views in less than 2.5 hours.
It charts the first 4 months of Australia's price falls at a 5 capital city level vs NZ during its housing crash.
youtu.be/DVTAghS-1vw
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
Perpetual shortage of hairdressers even after 1.5 million more immigrants and millions more temps
jobsandskills.gov.au/data/oc…
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
The Sydney housing market is indeed in deep trouble. – at Galston, New South Wales
Auction results - Sold To Listed
- Sydney 24.6% (30.8% last weekend)
- Melbourne 40.9% (36.7%)
Sydney absolutely collapses to its worst result since my records began.
If this is reflected in SQM's results come Tuesday, this is a market deeply in trouble.
Melbourne a strong bounce vs last week and a massive divergence developing between the two cities.
Although to what degree the now required auction disclosure rules in Victoria could be boosting clearance rates is unclear.
Overall auction volumes in both locales remain depressed compared with this time last year, which is playing a major role in supporting the market.
Without this factor results would be significantly worse.
If you want the normal full round up let me know in the comments, I'm out for the night.
Both cities markets remain in a deeply challenging place and on these numbers within the zone of major price falls.
Methodology in graphic below.
I produce this data entirely unpaid, so if you would like to make a one off contribution to support this effort you can do so here: buymeacoffee.com/tarric #AvidAuctions
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
I think this is spot on.
Albo and Chalmers are big fans of Keating, what if they actually came out and said our economy needs a reset and it’s going into a downturn?
It will be painful w’re going to do what we can to help those struggling but we’ll come out the other side stronger.
Never in a million years do I think they would do that but it’d probably be the right thing to do.
We have gone from a world where economic downside was a part of life and even directly confronted when necessary (Volcker, Keating etc)
To one where it is avoided like the plague, even if it means blowing hundreds of billions for little good long term reason.
This is part of the origin of Burnout Economics.
The theory that economic downside is now so politically unacceptable that govt will gladly keep their foot planted on the accelerator while central banks slam their foot on the brakes.
The problem is economic downside is never fully avoided, only deferred.
And that is where Australia is now.
A nation where housing market reckonings have been avoided again and again for almost two decades.
Where in the process of avoiding that downside growth in the per capita private sector economy is more or less non-existent in the post-mining boom era.
Now those same policymakers are trapped in a world of their own making, where there are no more good options, only less bad ones.
Welcome to late stage Burnout Economics, where things get challenging until the cycle starts all over again.
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
RBA Nov hike now priced at 60%. Reckon we need a 0.9% trimmed mean print for Q3, or lower, to stop cash moving to 4.85%.
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
Thx Tarric @AvidCommentator Very Kind!
Look below how Canada/ NZ with "grown up" CB & Government Policy has disinflated Covid Housing Bubble & made great inroads to Covid *Cost of Living* surges => unlike RBA/ Canberra that has blown the #1 Cost Housing ever higher with their * Narrow Path * fantasy narrative
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
Australian House Prices
Median Price to Income 9.5X just shy of most expensive in history....
= NB last time Australian House Prices facing high 6s Mortgage Rate P/ I was 7X not 9.5X
=> that was with negative gearing
I dont think a lot people truly grasp how much social mobility in terms of housing has been absolutely decimated.
In 1999, you could afford to buy a median house in every capital but Sydney on a median household income, in some cases absurdly easily.
Today, a place like Albury is unaffordable and in price to income terms is roughly in the same ballpark as California.
Dual income households in the top 20% of earners are today fighting tooth and nail for homes in same percentile that a bus driver and a part time canteen lady were buying at a canter at the turn of the millenium.
And it is entirely underappreciated what a major social issue this is.
If you cant build a decent life even with hard work and a huge income relative to the median, whats the point especially after all that tax.
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
My latest chat with @AvidCommentator going well, clearly the question of where the money has gone hit a nerve! Thanks TB youtu.be/noRSokuXwMw
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
If we see data on household income by deciles, we probably would agree with the Chinese government but I haven’t seen that data for a while. If someone can point to a public source for it, I would appreciate it!
China is on the cusp of becoming a high-income country by the World Bank’s classification. But Beijing would rather not be grouped with the world’s wealthy nations. on.wsj.com/4hOr81S
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
So everyone is going to memory hole Krugman telling Europe to jump into debt?
Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman warned that France’s deteriorating public finances are on an “unsustainble path” and at risk of unleashing a debt crisis across the euro area bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
In 2026, a couple earning in the top 20% can afford the same homes by percentile as a tradie and his hairdresser wife who worked one day a week could in 1997.
The reward for this relatively high level of affluence is what an average household took for granted for 30 years ago.
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
The other thing they want? More consumers.
As below, they're entitled to argue their corner.
But that's different to national interest.
GDP is one element of well-being. GDP per capita is more imporant.
Real wages more important again.
And overall quality of life is #1.
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
Let's be clear: business wants low-wage migration.
They're entitled to that view, but don't pretend they care about the national interest.
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
Auction results - Sold To Listed
- Sydney 31.1% (32.2% last weekend)
- Melbourne 39.5% (32.0%)
Sydney sees the NRL Grand Final tomorrow, which effectively renders the snapshot provided today not especially useful.
Melbourne's first foray back into things after last weeks public holiday saw the weakest result since last August and on continued far weaker than normal volumes.
Its worth noting that despite the impact of the NRL Grand Final, auction numbers for Sydney are far lower than last year's GF weekend.
This weekend last year saw: 749 auctions in Sydney and 1074 in Melbourne.
This week: 521 for Sydney and 714 for Melbourne.
SQM's figures for Sydney saw a major deterioration in last weeks figures, the opposite of the performance of my numbers.
This partially stems from SQM having a significantly better handle on total volumes than Domain and it well and truly remains the gold standard.
SQM also saw Melbourne's performance plunge due to Grand Final weekend volatility, so again it doesn't mean much.
For those wondering what is "normal" on my metric for this weekend of the year, the two cities in 2025:
Sydney: 48.9%
Melbourne: 52.3%
Both cities markets remain in a deeply challenging place and at face value on these numbers within the zone of major price falls.
Methodology in graphic below.
You can support my efforts to produce this data at: buymeacoffee.com/tarric
#AvidAuctions
Auction results - Sold To Listed
- Sydney 32.2% (29.2% last weekend)
- Melbourne 32.0% (40.5%)
A strong bounce from the recent lows for Sydney and with much higher volumes than last week, although far below the same week in 2025.
Potentially some questions to be answered as to what degree the upcoming Grand Final weekend played a role in boosting this week's performance, if at all, but we won't know that for another fortnight.
Meanwhile, in Melbourne, at least the worst result since lockdown, but that doesn't mean much, with the performance heavily impacted by the Grand Final public holiday weekend.
This weekend last year saw: 1433 auctions in Sydney and 250 in Melbourne.
This week: 1029 for Sydney and 291 for Melbourne.
SQM's figures from last week reflected the same weakness seen in my preliminary data for both cities.
For those wondering what is "normal" on my metric for this weekend of the year, the two cities in 2025:
Sydney: 45.0%
Melbourne: 49.6% (Grand Final impacted)
Both cities markets remain in a deeply challenging place and at face value on these numbers within the zone of major price falls.
Methodology in graphic below.
You can support my efforts to produce this data at: buymeacoffee.com/tarric
#AvidAuctions
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
5 months after Kiwi housing prices peaked nationally, they were down by 4.4%.
5 months after Australian housing prices peaked at a 5 capital city level, they are down 4.2%.
Why not more recent data? Because revisions keep happening and they are sizable.
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
#auspol
Another great conversation with Martin North @DFA_Analyst & Tarric Brooker @AvidCommentator.
Do you know what is really going on with economics in Australia?
Please watch.
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
I forewarned that the US refineries were not going to be able to skip fall maintenance (look at refinery runs while skipping spring maintenance)
PBF Energy just announce they were going down for 30-35 days on planned maintence.
This is their 165K bpd refinery in New Jersey.
This may be the worst time ever for product markets between US maintenence, throttled Hormuz crossings, the Russian diesel export ban extended, and now China implementing a fuel export ban today.
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
Albo goes full big brother and lies to us bare faced about it . He’s enabling the govt to use AI government agents to observe and interact with us .
You couldn’t make this up .
I don’t care what party you have supported in the past the PM and this government has gone rogue on Australian citizens .
If I write this once passed I’ll have give AI agents all over me and probably agents at my door like in the UK .
This is the most alarming direction of any government since federation . He’s spent the last barefaced saying he would not do this after telling the UN he would .
The Greens are in on this , Shoebridge clearly referred to it in his recent interviews .
They are trying to end free speech in Australia . It’s not a conspiracy it’s what they are doing .
The censorship industrial complex is going on the offensive. New legislation being field tested in Australia would give the government the power to run AI bot networks/sock puppets, apparently to secretly influence & manipulate online debates. Creepy af. H/t @NAffects @MikeNayna
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
My latest with Tarric Brooker Running Well. It’s The Omnishambles Squared youtu.be/cTchi51-sQg @AvidCommentator
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweeted
Good to see the issues of student doctor places gaining steam in the media.
The artificial cap takes such a huge toll on HS leavers. I remember about 25 kids in my class destroying themselves to get a 99+ ATAR (the minimum for UWA), taking after school UMAT/WACE tutoring 6 days a week. Only one got a place (in dentistry). Such a waste of time for ambitious people.
"Australia has a shortage of doctors, especially in regional areas, yet every year medical schools turn away thousands of eligible Australian applicants"
abc.net.au/news/2025-06-19/m…
