BasedHUmans

This bull run is boring. Instead of crypto-native innovations, it’s driven by external factors: • BTC/ETH ETFs • Government policy flip flopping • Potential interest rate decreases, etc. To turn this bull market into a super-cycle, we need strong internal innovations to attract retail and keep them entertained while seeing our paper gains inflate. Without invigorating the internal crypto casino, even crypto natives will simply hold BTC, ETH, SOL due to unfavorable risk/reward ratios. Coinbase trading volume data shows retail isn't here yet. No wonder that @DegenSpartan doesn't even tweet anymore. ---------- I liked the positioning of the 2020-21 bull run. It was a perfect storm: Covid forced governments to print money, while people speculated on new innovations: • NFTs • DeFi yield farms • P2E games like Axie Infinity • Metaverse Multiple innovations kept us engaged back then, but this bull run lacks internal catalysts. Currently, we just farm points or speculate on memecoins. Memecoins are fun, but unless you have a special edge, earning money isn't easy. Influencers and pump-and-dump groups feast on naive traders. Points is a declining airdrop trend where the rich get richer based on deposited funds and trading volume. Most airdrops are now linear, and LayerZero anti-sybil efforts could change the airdrop game. Point-based airdrops make the rich richer, and memecoins make the poor poorer. ------ So, what innovations can bring retail fervor back? I’m bullish on the restaking narrative as it boosts yields and demand for ETH. But restaking isn’t appealing to retail; it’s a game for whales, though innovative AVSs could attract tech-savvy retail. BTCFi with Ordinals and Runes is another favorite innovation of this cycle. But due to technical complexities and lack of a clear value proposition, even tech-savvy Ethereans/Solana degens aren’t too interested. We need something that revives our degen spirits and attracts new retail users while actually making money for them. It's hard to predict what could be the NFTs/P2Es of this cycle, but my bet is on new-generation consumer apps. There are already signs of it happening: • Fantasy top, Friend Tech, pumpdotfun, and Yolo games entered top dApps by revenue. • Farcaster has 59k DAU and growing (rewarding them with native-tokens) • Polymarket grows more mainstream. • New-gen GameFi games are popping up. I’m bullish about consumer apps because they innovate on user reward mechanisms and tokenomics, providing a way out from the low-float, high FDV issues plaguing this cycle. Friend tech giving 100% of the $FRIEND is a good sign. Yet, there are still too few popular consumer apps. We need more! And if not consumer apps, what other internal catalysts do we have?