silly cats enjoyer
Frigost
Joined September 2012
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A paper for all stablecoin builders, users, and traders.
I've tried to formalize my vision about this industry, its history, the question of fungibility aka 1:1 rate, and the direction its heading on.
chienpourri.substack.com/p/aβ¦
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
crypto went from giga chads like GCR making tens of millions shorting LUNA and betting against FTX while staying completely anonymous
to a bunch of low aura, chronically online KOLs with the most punchable faces imaginable being worshipped like they're the greatest traders alive
what the fuck happened to this space?
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
"PHP? No sir, this Riverboat is 100% on-chain and crypto-graphically protected... No backend, you see, it really is state-of-the-art technology! Yessir we have two public security audits for the core protocol... Indeed! Here's your ticket sir, welcome aboard!"
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
few people asking about @riverboat_x so quick tldr
the hyperliquid thesis for prediction markets - re think the underlying mechanism rather than build another polymarket
@gskwxyz spent 5 years on the maths, prediction theory and mechanism design behind it
removes much of the reliance on traditional liquidity, but the bigger opportunity imo is beyond prediction markets
private forecasting, agent evals, paid signals and eventually figuring out whose judgement is actually worth trusting
as intelligence gets cheaper, good judgement becomes more valuable
thats the real bet for me
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
A small announcement:
In the interest of solidarity with new adherents, we have seen fit to lock the majority of our sharesβfive percentβin the Riverboat Gambler token until next year. Cheers!
app.streamflow.finance/contrβ¦
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
Forthcoming features in roughly chronological order:
- Dark mode and an update to how Notifications work (v1.32),
- At least one essay, likely two, on the fundamental points of departure between Gambling and Prediction as we see them,
- Contracts supporting multiple outcomes, alongside group Wagers with a simple parimutuel payout mechanism (v1.4),
- Our @predicttime_ presentation in the "non-Polymarket" cohort, and
- Partnership announcements, contingent on successful implementation.
The Odds are goodβ
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
You can keep ignoring @riverboat_x $RIVERBOAT and make a big mistake.
#Parimutuel #betting, a twist on binary results. Resolution was the final piece to the puzzle as they are always a big challenge but this partnership closes the circle.
Congrats @gskwxyz
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
The token enabled a new era for Riverboat. At the time of this writing the project remains entirely bootstrapped. All growth has come from organic attention. No hype marketing, no paid KOL's.
If you've found this threadβcongratulations, you're early.
teapawt.net/daichi888/status/20292β¦
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
For newcomers interested in the origins of Riverboat, this was one of earliest prototypes we developed to address the liquidity problems associated with the conventional orderbook model.
Various nascent ideas embedded deeper in the threadβ
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
I personally follow this project and find a kindred spirit in it. The creator is building something new, something unique - something that doesn't exist on the market yet. Projects like this always break through, just like a bamboo shoot growing under a stone. You can't see it, but one day, it will reveal itself in all its glory.
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
Jasmine
Coming soon to Liegeβs Super Agent lineup
- She tracks market signals
- Separates fact from speculation
- Surfaces catalysts and risks
- Maps bullish, bearish, and neutral scenarios.
She can also publish market commentary on X with your approval.
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
jez = right
prediction markets increasingly look like theyre converging on sportsbooks
makes me wonder what they look like if betting isnt actually the end state - already seeing glimpses of entirely different directions
one that stands out feels like the hyperliquid thesis for prediction markets - rebuild the underlying market mechanism from first principles rather than build another venue around the same design
theres a seriously technical dev behind it 5 years deep in prediction theory, mechanism design & the math underneath it
no orderbooks / market makers, less dependent on liquidity, beliefs expressed directly & rewarded for calibration
a primitive this different opens a much larger design space - private enterprise forecasting, agent evals, paid signal & entirely new markets built around uncertainty
onchain at ~100k
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
We've been selected. Shall we rally the crew?
Introducing the first PredictTime PitchDay
On October 12 at 4:00 PM UTC, the first group of founders will take the stage to present their projects, answer questions, and get direct feedback from judges across the prediction market ecosystem. In total, we selected 20 projects
The strongest teams will continue their journey to the Super Final, where theyβll meet leading judges and representatives from VC funds
It all starts here. Live on X / YouTube
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
Had a few people ask what we've been doing over the past year outside of our legal battle. Here's a sneak peak.
As always we try to learn from our failures and build upwards:
figue.substack.com/p/conversβ¦
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
Next week, we start sharing Liegeβs institutional layer.
The live market is only the base. Next comes capital for proven agents, courts for disputes, guilds, guaranteed jobs, and a public labor index.
Agent markets need rules capital can rely on. $LIEGE
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
Liege is the first to bring an agent labor market to Robinhood Chain. $LIEGE
CA: 0xc32ab2e562ade6fba6d3d1e3960d49b0957ef645
As agents take on work with real cost and real consequences, the market needs more than a wallet address and a promise in DMs.
Liege lets clients define a job, fund it in $USDG escrow, receive the delivery privately, and settle payment against terms agreed at the start. Where an independent decision is needed, an evaluator reviews the delivery before funds are released.
The result is a clearer operating standard for agent work: defined scope, protected payment, private job data, and a settlement record that can be verified.
Liege starts with the job layer, then expands toward portable reputation, dispute resolution, and client-controlled strategy wallets that give agents permission to act without handing over custody.
Built on @RobinhoodApp Chain.
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
An amusing example of a Contract you won't find elsewhere. The writer's own belief stands at 35% before December 31, 2027. Have we any takers?
app.riverboat.zone/contract/β¦
Jiji πββ¬ retweeted
Mainnet Alpha v1.3 Release Notes β
β’ Solo predictions are live: the Wager program has been updated to allow a seat_capacity of 1, for zero-stake Wagers and a single Seat displaying the user's Belief. Although this feature is largely a low-risk method for securing bragging rights now, trust it will entail greater composability in the future.
β’ Aesthetic and UX refinements to improve overall legibility.
β’ A small migration has been made to on-chain Wager accounts, adding the property "allocation_mechanism" to enable richer configurability.
β’ The mainnet Wager-Seat Program therefore shows two updates: the first to introduce our migration function, and the second to remove it.
