Milton W Berg CFA

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One reason we rely on technical data instead of economic forecasts: the forecasts are often wrong. Take Steve Hanke. In August 2022 he told CNBC, "We're going to have one whopper of a recession in 2023." His reason was that M2 money supply growth had stalled. • Sept 2022: 80% odds of a recession by October 2023 • April 2023: a recession is "baked in the cake" • 2024: "We changed our forecast, but not our model" • March 2025: the economy is "going off the cliff" That's four years of the same call while the date keeps moving. Ukraine's disinformation agency put Hanke on its list of Russian propagandists in 2022. He has also become one of Israel's loudest critics on X.

A new Milton Berg Edge report was just published on the website: RE: Report 024 miltonbergedge.com

Our Institutional report (excerpts) were posted in Investor Intelligence this morning. investorsintelligence.com/ “We remain aggressively short. As of yesterday’s close, the portfolio was 194.37% short, with a return to date of -0.57% on the short positions. In our assessment, the equity markets remain in a topping process. The Nasdaq Comp reached a new all-time high on 22-Sep, the W.D. Gann “Day of Infamy,; exceeding its prior 1-Jun high by just 0.36%. This marginal new high coincided with a Gann date and was accompanied by significant negative divergences. Most notably, the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, S&P SmallCap 600, SOX, Russell 2000, and advance-decline lines failed to confirm the Nasdaq’s move into new-high territory. We do not want to overanalyze or overtrade. Our aggressive short positioning was established on the basis of pattern analysis, VXN deviations, and cycle theory, and the rationale remains intact.” (24-Sep-26) [shifting] “We will make portfolio changes based on current market action, cyclic forces, and oversold conditions. Covering IJH, IJR, Reducing exposure in SPY, positioning long TLT. Our oscillator reached a relatively deep oversold reading on 18-Sep and has now reversed to neutral territory. An oversold reading is a prerequisite for a tradable low. We are in a final Montgomery turn cycle period. We will retain our 37.48% short position in QQQ. We will retain our 19.90% short position in SOXX. The S&P 500 peaked on the 13-Aug Montgomery date. It declined just 3.95% into 16-Sep and generated a recovery high into the 22-Sep WD Gann date. We will reduce short exposure in the S&P 500 to 75% from the current 103.15%. For tracking purposes we will use VWAP on the day. The reversal in our oscillator off an oversold condition warrants a reduction in short exposure.25-Sep-26) Milton Berg’s MB Advisors Research Letter, New York, NY miltonberg.com

A new Milton Berg Edge report was just published on the website: Q&A Report No. 023. Report No. 023 answers 21 subscriber questions. Milton Berg explains why the real-money tracking portfolio uses VOO, with its 0.03% expense ratio, over SPY at roughly 0.09%, and that any short-term U.S. Treasury bill ETF or money market fund suits the model's cash allocation. He reaffirms a negative intermediate-term view on gold, which peaked at $5,595.47 on January 29, 2026 and fell to $3,943.29 by June 30, and declines to name an attractive entry price. He also addresses leverage, shorting, order types, dollar-cost averaging, and succession, noting the April 10 buy signal had gained 14.46% through September 22, against a record since 1957 of 51 winning trades averaging 25.58% and five losers averaging 1.41%. miltonbergedge.com

miltonbergedge.com miltonberg.com Excerpt from This Morning's Institutional report: No. 3949 Historically, various capital markets have exhibited unusual volatility during the period centered around September 21-22. In fact, unlike most solar calendar based “cycle” dates which are man made constructs such as the well known “January Effect” or the “Year end rally” or the “Sell in May and go away” idea, or the “Off-presidential year bottom cycle” etc, the “September 21-22 WD Gann date” is based on natural phenomena, as are the “Montgomery Cycle Dates”.

The recent rise in both short- and long-term Treasury yields, together with higher crude oil prices, gives the Federal Reserve room to keep policy rates unchanged for now. Rather than responding immediately, the Fed should allow the economy time to absorb these moves and assess their cumulative effect on demand and inflation. It is our view, the rise in crude oil does not necessarily signal an acceleration in underlying monetary inflation. An oil-price shock raises energy costs, but holding other factors constant it also reduces consumers’ real disposable income and corporate purchasing power. That tends to restrain spending on other goods and services, creating a disinflationary, and potentially deflationary, effect elsewhere in the economy. Higher market interest rates work in a similar direction. Rising yields tighten financial conditions, increase borrowing costs, and typically slow economic activity over time, which should help moderate broader inflation pressures. The Fed could justify an increase in the policy rate because short-term market rates appear out of line with the current fed-funds rate. However, tightening policy into an oil-price shock could prove counterproductive. Raising rates in response to higher energy prices risks amplifying the demand destruction already caused by the increase in oil, without addressing the source of that price move. The key distinction is between an energy-driven relative-price shock and persistent monetary inflation. The latter requires a policy response if it is feeding into broad-based inflation expectations, wages, and core prices. But higher crude prices alone are not evidence of excess monetary inflation—and should not, by themselves, compel the Fed to raise rates. miltonberg.com

dropbox.com/scl/fi/fiuim7vzd… Factor Analysis In Stock Selection October 19, 2009