Monetary Economist. Bitcoin — Class of 2013

Massachusetts, USA
Joined August 2021
We haven’t even entered the “disbelief” phase in $BTC yet, but the noise and fear are so intense that it feels like a bottom rather than the end of the depression phase. It seems that investors’ mental resilience in Bitcoin is weakening over time.
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bitcoin:native is undervalued, but ethereum:native is even more undervalued. It’s trading more than 1 standard deviation below its mean price.
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I promised not to talk about gold anymore, but I can see a new, coordinated wave of gold promotion approaching. Very influential voices are claiming that gold’s bottom is in. Not just a local bottom, but the bottom. ☝️ This could clearly serve two purposes: first, to attract more exit liquidity from retail investors, and second, to minimize retail participation in Bitcoin ahead of its biggest bull run since 2017.
I’m not invested in gold, based on my long-term outlook. In my view, it may experience a correction of roughly 40% from the top before bottoming.
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Before $BTC reaches its final cycle top, there will be some excellent local cycles for short-term trading. But those opportunities are for investors who are already fully allocated to Bitcoin. Those who aren’t fully allocated should be buying it blindly at any price below $93K.
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So you’re telling me that these EMAs, which have correctly confirmed every local and global bottom throughout $BTC’s history, are wrong this time, and that the bottom isn’t in because of the 4-year cycle theory? No.
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The daily RSI is signaling that today is a buy day for bitcoin:native
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