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七年之病当求三年之艾 || RT≈Endorsement. Views My Own. He/Him || US politics and elections nerd

Joined June 2016
Photo by Paper Boats🇺🇦 (@Blade0Runner)Photo by Paper Boats🇺🇦 (@Blade0Runner)Photo by Paper Boats🇺🇦 (@Blade0Runner)Photo by Paper Boats🇺🇦 (@Blade0Runner)Photo by Paper Boats🇺🇦 (@Blade0Runner)Photo by Paper Boats🇺🇦 (@Blade0Runner)Photo by Paper Boats🇺🇦 (@Blade0Runner)Photo by Paper Boats🇺🇦 (@Blade0Runner)Photo by Paper Boats🇺🇦 (@Blade0Runner)Photo by Paper Boats🇺🇦 (@Blade0Runner)
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正在考虑把中文内容更新完全转到 Threads 上面,隔壁的推荐算法虽然时不时奖励一些脑残港台水军号,但没有被币圈 AI 蓝标营销号彻底占领还是好上太多了 可能以后这里变成一个只会讽刺美国佬的纯英文账号
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
Anyone who wants to get in politics on any level better read it!
Scott Colom has read the LBJ series
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
I think we can all agree that the American people have given the Democratic party an enormous mandate to fund a large number of tenure-track political science professor positions at mid-range R1 universities in the 2027-2028 academic job market
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
Nothing will ever beat this image of the 2026 election
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
Interesting Mississippi analysis from one Charles Schumer theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/1…
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
“We’re Republican Women Politicians”
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
I just wish Mitch McConnell were alive to see this.
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2024 年年末的时候就和朋友聊到过,川普大概率会像 2004 小布什那样 misread his mandate,误认为选民在物价/反恐安全上给出的谨慎信任(popular vote 不过 2% 不到)是给他们在意识形态议题上胡作非为的空头支票
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小布什不顾党内反对推禁止同婚入宪、私有化社保,mishandled 卡特里娜飓风,可以对应川普关税、伊朗战争、ICE 盖世太保式执法和裙带关系腐败 ​Well here we are today, 55 Senate seats, perhaps largest D popular vote since 1982/1974
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拉了一个唠嗑 midterm 的闲聊群,欢迎来吹水 t.me/+pd2Dg75nFyQ5YjI1
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没有蓝标基本零流量 😅
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
Dude's name is Tom Hoyle, and he also took the time to educate a security guard on the history of Florida death metal 🖤 thehandbasket.co/p/tom-hoyle…
Fox: Why are you here this morning? Trump rally attendee: Well, in the late 70s, I was a little too young to go to South America for the Jonestown Massacre. But this is as close as I'll ever get, so that's why I'm here. There's nothing like seeing a cult right up front.
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
Fox: Why are you here this morning? Trump rally attendee: Well, in the late 70s, I was a little too young to go to South America for the Jonestown Massacre. But this is as close as I'll ever get, so that's why I'm here. There's nothing like seeing a cult right up front.
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
We tricked Fukuyama into doing the 2 dumb bitches podcast @ContraPoints Premieres at 3
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2026 现状播报:在 Threads 上讲了一句不是所有广东人都说广东话,被香港人群起而攻之 😁
我觉得类似于“沪爷”“京爷”,港人优越感最好笑的一点是,大部分人无非就是祖父辈逃港早了一些、幸运了一些,没有成为梧桐山沙头角的冤魂,比内地没来得及没条件跑的亲戚多了两个钱。实际上华人的根劣性,比如迷信、内斗不团结、互相歧视、封建专制等等,一点不差保留了下来,甚至青出于蓝而胜于蓝
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
Elon Musk found us here. We’re indigenous to this land.
If people dislike Elon Musk so much, why do they still use the platform he owns?
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
A journalist asked Zelensky: “Don’t you think Trump has made you a scapegoat for his own problems?” The Ukrainian president smiled knowingly and replied: “That is my answer.” The room erupted in laughter and applause.
Zelensky vows to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries if allies provide air defense missiles “You decided that we shouldn’t attack Russian oil refineries. But they will keep attacking us. Then give us missiles so we can shoot down ballistic missiles,” he said. “We were attacked. Our people were killed. It is perfectly reasonable that we have the right to defend ourselves. All the analysis shows that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have no impact on prices,” the Ukrainian president added. Zelensky emphasized that the lifting of sanctions against Russia came as a surprise to everyone.
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米尔斯海默其实就是基辛格没当官的版本 😁 要是他当上特朗普的国务卿或者国安顾问,高低给中东拉美来点小小的孟加拉东帝汶柬埔寨老活动限时返场活动震撼
这两周看见好几个简中意见领袖在乌克兰事件上引用米尔斯海默。他并非以著书立说为业的严肃政治学者,而是凭借学者身份在媒体迎合庸众的网红政治学家。 我以前对他的评价:完全脱离现实的“现实主义”政治家。 现在对他的评价:毫无廉耻的欺世盗名之辈。 他在俄乌问题上几乎所有判断都是错的。 挑几个片段摘录一下: 2022年2月:“我不认为俄罗斯会入侵乌克兰。” 2023年9月:“乌克兰注定要失败。” 2024年1月:“认为乌克兰能在2024年守住阵地简直荒谬。” 2025年4月:“乌克兰能撑到2025年以后简直难以想象。” 2026年7月:“俄罗斯人正在缓慢推进。”
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
这两周看见好几个简中意见领袖在乌克兰事件上引用米尔斯海默。他并非以著书立说为业的严肃政治学者,而是凭借学者身份在媒体迎合庸众的网红政治学家。 我以前对他的评价:完全脱离现实的“现实主义”政治家。 现在对他的评价:毫无廉耻的欺世盗名之辈。 他在俄乌问题上几乎所有判断都是错的。 挑几个片段摘录一下: 2022年2月:“我不认为俄罗斯会入侵乌克兰。” 2023年9月:“乌克兰注定要失败。” 2024年1月:“认为乌克兰能在2024年守住阵地简直荒谬。” 2025年4月:“乌克兰能撑到2025年以后简直难以想象。” 2026年7月:“俄罗斯人正在缓慢推进。”
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Paper Boats🇺🇦 retweeted
Observation from covering politics for 15+ years: establishment Dems have long over-indexed on how much voters care about “bipartisanship.” No, they care about results—they’d prefer a partisan bill with deliverables (eg $2K stimulus checks) over a bipartisan bill like the bank bailout. When politicians like Obama linked it to a vision they liked, it worked. But voters do not care if the powerful in Washington are chummy and getting along. “Bipartisanship” can easily code as join forces to help special interests, which is a net negative in a populist moment. What seems to have shaken that Dem belief lately is Trump winning every swing state plus the popular vote in 2024 while running on retribution.
Replying to @sahilkapur
Damn, no wonder she lost. Nobody gives a shit about “bipartisanship” anymore.
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从政治领导层为了保持权力/影响力的一己私欲而漠视多数民众的实际政治需求这点来说,这几十年来藏人和巴勒斯坦人面临的处境是非常类似的。鼠目寸光、高估自己谈判筹码而错失达成协议的良机、自愿成为大国地缘博弈中的弃子等等,阿拉法特与达赖如出一辙。对比起库尔德人“只把山脉当朋友”,完全相形见绌
Replying to @degewa
😅问题是达赖这六十多年都没申请其他国籍,法律上户口还落在布达拉宫。2010 前后秘密谈判的时候还公开说过自己将会拿着中国护照回拉萨。您这是在用文化上的认同偷换概念,逃避回答严肃的法律和政治问题
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说不客气一点,像 @degewa 这样的文化精英所表现出的焦虑态度,其实和港台同行是非常相似的,共同点就是他们的 nation construction narrative 完全背离了变化越来越快的政治现实
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