ᴛʜʀᴇᴀᴅᴏᴏᴏʀ ⋆ ᴀɪʀᴅʀᴏᴘ ʜᴜɴᴛᴇʀ ⋆ ᴅᴇғɪ ⋆ ᴏɴ-ᴄʜᴀɪɴ ᴀɴᴀʟʏᴛɪᴄs ⋆ ғᴏʟʟᴏᴡ ᴍᴇ ғᴏʀ ᴀʟᴘʜᴀ ᴛʜʀᴇᴀᴅs 🧵

ALPHA
Joined September 2018
BLADE retweeted
🚨WARNING: GREAT 2008 & 2020 RECESSION MIGHT COMING AGAIN! Pending home sales just hit all time lows, lower even than 2008 crush and 2020 COVID times That will result in huge sell pressure for crypto Let me explain why and what awaits us The latest US Pending Home Sales Index collapsed 7.3% to 66.0, the lowest reading since records began in 2001 That's a serious warning for the US economy A recession happens when economic activity contracts broadly, businesses cut spending and unemployment starts rising And when investors panic, they usually dump risk assets first Remember March 2020? Bitcoin crashed almost 60% in just days as stocks collapsed and investors rushed for liquidity Now we have record-low housing demand, mortgage rates around 7.4% and more uncertainty ahead of the US midterms Kalshi is pricing roughly 22% odds of a US recession in 2027, but I think the risks could be higher That doesn't mean another 2020 crash is guaranteed But it makes another major correction in $BTC very realistic I still expect the $70K area to get tested, even if the macro bottom is already in And if the economy weakens further, the sell-off could become much more aggressive Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: 22% chance of a recession next year
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BLADE retweeted
WARNING: WE ARE APROACHING US MIDTERMS ELECTIONS IN 9 DAYS! Historical each time after midterms $BTC is dumping ~50% This would mean a huge correction soon, and even that I don't think it would be to the new cycle lows but definitely to 60K range lows Which would be the ideal setup before going to 90K highs Recently we already got a small correction and now everyone either waits for small correction to 74K or straight to 87K highs But what majority waits usually can't happen Midterms are only 9 days away and in my view the maximum pain scenario would be moving to 60K range lows and that's exactly why it must happen 3/4 midterms were followed by huge bearish price corrections So I am nearly sure that we will get bigger correction then just dropping to 80K right now and even not only to 75K This would liquidate later longs, keep more sideliners, creating more FOMO and perfect moment for a huge move to 90K Then I'd say we will not return to 60K anytime soon Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: Traders expect high volatility ahead of midterms 80% chance Fed "hikes" interest rates this year
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BLADE retweeted
🚨NOBODY IS TALKING THAT WE ACCEPTED BACK IN THE RANGE HERE! That means this pump was just a simple BULL TRAP Now we have a great chance dump to retest lows of the range, maybe we won't sweep new lows but 100% retest 70K Breakout above $82K trapped late buyers who thought $BTC was ready for another massive expansion Now price is back inside the range with huge liquidity still sitting around $70K-$66K And that's exactly where I expect the next major reaction Such a correction would flush overleveraged longs and turn sentiment bearish again Most traders will start waiting for $50K while the market prepares for its next move higher That's the perfect setup to leave everyone sidelined before the real breakout I still think the macro bottom could already be in We just need one final shakeout before BTC starts its next major expansion And once we reclaim $82K, I expect the bullish momentum to return aggressively Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: 45% chance Bitcoin bitcoin:native drops to $70,000 before $100,000
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BLADE retweeted
🚨SPACEX AND TESLA MERGE HAS REACHED ATH CHANCES THIS YEAR! Elon says that talks about this are exaggerated But he might just trying to hide the huge thing that is coming and will pump both Tesla and SpaceX stockes higher So nobody would be positioned for this And now things are getting much more interesting Both companies have officially formed special committees to explore a potential merger Some analysts already see a deal happening within the next 12 months And the biggest reason is AI, robotics and the Terafab project Tesla brings autonomous driving, humanoid robots and massive consumer infrastructure SpaceX brings Starlink, satellite connectivity and rapidly growing AI computing capabilities Combining them could create one of the most powerful technology companies in the world And the charts are already showing similar recovery structures Just like Tesla after its IPO, SpaceX went through a major dump and is now building a base for another expansion If this merger becomes reality, I expect both stocks to see a major revaluation For $SPCX, my next major targets remain $200 and eventually $260+ And I think the biggest move is still ahead Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs onя
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BREAKING: 85% chance Tesla and SpaceX merge before 2028 — an all-time high.
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BLADE retweeted
🚨WARNING: FED MIGHT PLANNING 2 MORE RATE HIKEs THIS YEAR! Same happened 3 years ago and resulted in ~40% $BTC dump And I don't think this time will be different Even that bottom is in, hiking rates is super bearish for crypto, especially with all the bearish macro happening right now So two hikes in a row might result in huge dump It won't bring us to new lows but we definitely will revisit 60K-80K range lows and that also looks logical cause we accepted back in the range on weekly And the biggest problem is that inflation remains elevated while the FED is still considering further tightening Higher rates put more pressure on liquidity and make it harder for risk assets to sustain aggressive rallies Technically, the weekly structure is also starting to look weak again The move above $80K now looks like a deviation rather than the beginning of another major expansion My next target is $70K, where I expect the first major reaction If that support fails, I expect BTC to revisit $60K-$62.5K and test the lower boundary of the macro range I still believe the cycle bottom is in, but that doesn't mean we can't have another brutal correction before the real bull run begins Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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JUST IN: Federal Reserve warns of another rate hike by year end Our traders forecast exactly 2 rate hikes this year
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BLADE retweeted
🚨WARNING: AI IS REPEATING SAME PRE-COLLAPSE DOT-COM PATTERN! Anthropic chances on IPO at next year is rising to new ATHs With valuation around $2T and no revenue compared to what investors are being asked to pay Exact same set up that resulted in Dot-Com bubble crush And the numbers are getting absolutely insane Anthropic generated $16.8B in Q3 revenue, yet investors are discussing a valuation close to $2 TRILLION That's almost 30 times annualized revenue And revenue growth is already slowing despite massive AI demand We saw similar euphoria in 2000 when investors kept paying higher prices for future growth Then the Nasdaq collapsed almost 78% from its peak Now the Nasdaq relative to US money supply is trading around the same extreme levels again AI companies are attracting enormous capital while valuations already price in years of aggressive growth All it takes is one major disappointment for those expectations to start breaking Different technology, same dangerous market psychology And I think the next major correction could catch almost everyone off guard Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: Anthropic commits 5% of its shares to a "public benefit fund that grows with the company" 75% chance Anthropic announces an IPO before 2027
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BLADE retweeted
🚨BREAKING: TESLA AND SPACEX WILL PUMP HARD AFTER FLYING ROADSTER! Over the day stock has already added ~80B in market cap And that's only the beginning With SpaceX and Tesla merge now this growth would likely also affects SpaceX and we will see huge pump Yesterday Musk finally showed what this connection could actually look like The new Roadster literally used SpaceX-developed thrusters to jump It turn in the air and accelerate from 0-60 mph in under one second, with the entire reveal held at a SpaceX facility in Texas That makes the merger story much bigger than just combining two companies Tesla gets access to SpaceX engineering and aerospace technology SpaceX gets another massive platform where its technology can actually be commercialized And Wall Street is starting to see the same thing Barclays says a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up is increasingly becoming the consensus expectation, while Dan Ives now puts the probability of a merger by the end of 2027 at 80% Before, I saw a merger as more bullish for Tesla and potentially bearish for SpaceX because of dilution and valuation reset risk But after this Roadster reveal, that thesis changes If SpaceX becomes the technology engine behind future Tesla products, the merger can become bullish for both Tesla gets the hype and products SpaceX gets the valuation expansion from becoming part of a much larger consumer-tech ecosystem That’s why I think this could be the start of the next major re-rating for both TSLA and SPCX Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: 60% chance Tesla and SpaceX merge within the next year — an all-time high.
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BLADE retweeted
We’ve got two Ferrari paddock tickets. You’ve got some competition with $120,000 on the line. Introducing the Tria Grand Prix 🏁
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BLADE retweeted
🚨JUST IN: 85% CHANCE THAT FED MAINTAINS INTEREST RATES THIS MONTH! Each time we saw this pattern, $BTC dumped ~10% This time it won't be an exception and that's exactly what will start next likely major correction to new lows My plan remains: Back into $60K-$80K range The move above $80K looks more like a deviation than a real breakout We took liquidity above the range, failed to build acceptance there and now price should rotate back inside From there I expect BTC to move toward the opposite side around $60K And just like we deviated above the highs, I expect one final deviation below the lows That sweep into ~$54K is still where I expect the real macro bottom to form Only after that I’d be looking for the real reversal Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: 85% chance Fed "maintains" interest rates this month — an all-time high.
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BLADE retweeted
🚨NOBODY IS READY FOR THIS $BTC PATTERN TO PLAY OUT! And that's exactly why it will Each cycle followed it and this won't be an exception, that's where real macro bottom sits right now And every time, CT starts saying the old cycle model is broken right before the final move plays out We are in the same psychological phase again Everyone bought the dip, fear disappeared and now most expect another expansion higher But we still haven’t had the capitulation event that usually ends a bear market Cycle timing also leaves room for one final flush before the next major expansion begins That’s why I’m still waiting for the real macro bottom before turning fully bullish again The short-term noise changes – the bigger cycle structure hasn’t Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: US Government just transferred out $1B worth of Bitcoin Our traders forecast bitcoin:native will crash to $78,000 this month
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BLADE retweeted
🚨WARNING: EVERYONE FORGOT ABOUT THIS $BTC PATTERN! Topped December, bottomed December Topped November, bottomed November Topped October, bottom will be in October Each cycle top and bottom has been coming in exact same month And so far this cycle is following the same timing almost perfectly That would put the final macro low somewhere this month Which also fits everything else we are seeing right now No real capitulation yet No extreme fear And plenty of liquidity still sitting below the current range That’s why I still expect one final aggressive flush before the cycle fully resets My macro bottom zone remains around $50K-$55K If this timing pattern holds again, October should be the month everyone finally stops believing the dip will be bought immediately Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: Our traders forecast Bitcoin will hit $95,000 this year
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BLADE retweeted
$ETH is playing out the Elliott structure perfectly Four waves are done and we swept the liquidity at the lows which means the final wave 5 expansion is next Let's see how it plays out
How do you call this pattern? $ETH
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BLADE retweeted
🚨WARNING: EACH TIME RATES WERE MAINTAINED $BTC HAS DUMPED! This pattern was playing out for the last 2 years with no exception Each time we dumped for ~5-10% This time it will be even bigger considering weak PA and that bottom is not in My target remains: $70K BTC still shows no real bullish structure shift And we still haven’t seen proper fear or capitulation for a macro bottom Even future rate cuts won’t necessarily save the market, because cuts usually come when economic weakness is already showing So I still expect another sharp correction first $70K remains the next major target Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: 85% chance Fed "maintains" interest rates next month
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BLADE retweeted
🚨EVERYONE FORGOT ABOUT THIS $BTC PATTERN! We are playing out same cycle structure as always but for some reason nobody talking about it Same happens each time exactly in this phase Everyone turns blindly bullish and that's exactly best point for coming correction and new lows But every cycle we respected this rising macro channel Cycle tops keep hitting the upper boundary Cycle lows keep forming near the lower boundary And right now price is once again moving through that exact structure That’s why I still don’t think the real macro bottom is in yet Most people only focus on short-term noise and every bounce makes them think the cycle is already resetting But if you zoom out, nothing unusual is happening This still looks like a normal move from cycle top into the next cycle low That also fits with everything else we’ve been tracking: - no real capitulation - no extreme fear - no proper bottom event yet So for me the thesis remains simple One more major flush should come first – then the real macro bottom forms And only after that the next big cycle expansion begins That’s how $BTC has moved for years And until structure truly changes, I see no reason to ignore it Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: 45% chance Bitcoin hits $100,000 this year 15% chance it happens this month
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BLADE retweeted
🚨WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY STRANGE IS HAPPENING! FED projected to maintain interest rates next month When we had rates hiked we pumped even that it was bearish, now we are dumping into bullish news That means correction is likely coming right now My target remains: $70K $BTC pumped almost 16% right after the rate hike and everyone immediately treated it as bullish confirmation But that move now looks much more like a liquidity squeeze than a real trend reversal Price is already losing momentum while the market is getting a much more supportive rate outlook That’s the part that matters If bullish macro news can’t push BTC higher anymore, then the market is showing real weakness underneath We already took most of the liquidity above during this pump Now I expect price to rotate lower and start attacking the liquidity sitting around $75K-$70K And if $70K fails, that’s where the real fear should finally start Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: Fed now projected to "maintain" interest rates next month
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BLADE retweeted
🚨WARNING: $BTC CRASHED EACH TIME DURING U.S. MIDTERM ELECTION! Now it's coming again and this time it won't be an exception either Cycles, timings, now this, everything points for lower That's why my thesis remains: bottom is not in We still did not have either capitulation fear event or any proper bottom structures forming I don't think we are going to $50K, that's not possible My target is $54K macro bottom, we will break $60K range lows, sweep $57K, but this time deviating even lower to $54K That's where macro bottom will be formed And the biggest reason is simple This market still feels way too comfortable Too many people believe the worst is already over Too many bought the lows and now expect only upside from here That is not how real crypto bottoms are usually formed A real bottom comes when people stop calling every dip a buying opportunity and start panicking instead We still have unfinished liquidity below, no real fear, no final flush If the midterm pattern repeats again, this event can become the perfect trigger for that last capitulation move So for me nothing changes: low around $54K And only after that I would expect the real macro reversal to begin Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: Odds Bitcoin drops to $50k before $100k plummet to 5%
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BLADE retweeted
🚨WARNING: NEXT $BTC FLUSH CAN START ANY DAY RIGHT NOW! Capitulation has already begun Nobody expects this to plays out, waiting for perfect small correction and further pump, that's exact moment for huge crash My plan remains: $88K -> $82K -> $75K -> $70K -> $60K -> $54K macro bottom Cycle timing still leaves room for one final move lower And the biggest problem is that we still haven’t seen real fear Everyone bought the lows, everyone is sitting comfortably in spot and almost everyone expects another pump That’s not how crypto usually forms a real macro bottom At the same time, October rate hike odds surged to nearly 70% earlier today, even after Job Openings came in weaker than expected That shows how aggressive the tightening expectations still are despite signs that the labor market is cooling A real bottom normally comes when people stop buying every dip and start panic selling instead We still have huge liquidity sitting below and the market hasn’t flushed those buyers yet Once $70K breaks, sentiment can flip extremely fast That’s when I expect the real capitulation toward $60K and eventually ~$54K Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: 70% chance Fed "hikes" interest rates next month — an all-time high.
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BLADE retweeted
🚨WARNING: THERE IS NO LIQUIDITY LEFT TO TAKE ABOVE AFTER LAST PUMP! $BTC has only huge liquidations stack below right now There is not possible to go any higher without taking those first My plan remains: 85K -> 80K -> 75K -> 70K -> 54K macro bottom Most of the upside liquidity was already cleared during the last pump Meanwhile huge clusters are still sitting below and BTC rarely leaves them untouched And now almost nobody expects a real dump anymore That’s exactly the kind of sentiment we usually see before final capitulation I still expect that liquidity to get swept before the real macro bottom forms around $54K Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: 10% chance Bitcoin drops to $50,000 before $100,000 A $1,000 trade pays out $10,000 if it happens
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BLADE retweeted
🚨WARNING: FINAL $BTC CAPITULATION IS COMING CLOSER! Each bear market final dump comes when nobody expects it, with majority waiting for another pump ATL of recession odds tells us that we're exactly in that place My plan remains: $88K -> $80K -> $75K -> $70K -> $54K macro bottom BTC is still trading inside the same huge range and we already swept liquidity on both sides Now another push toward $85K-$88K can become the final bull trap before distribution starts That would be the perfect setup psychologically Everyone turns bullish again, starts calling for $100K+ and stops expecting any new lows Meanwhile cycle timing still leaves room for one final capitulation and we still haven’t seen the real fear event that usually forms the macro bottom Once this trap fails, I expect BTC to rotate back through the range and start accelerating below $70K That’s where sentiment should finally break And the move toward ~$54K is still where I expect the real macro bottom to form Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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BREAKING: Odds of a recession next year reach an all-time low of 20%
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BLADE retweeted
this was supposed to stay private but anyway something you’ll love is coming on Oct 3 Join the waitlist → link.tria.so/46KNHzv
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