Dawn Slusher

FRIDAY, October 16 will feature scattered strong/severe thunderstorms from D.C. and the Delmarva northward into eastern Pennsylvania, New York City, New Jersey and even southwest Connecticut. That's where the Storm Prediction Center has drawn a Level 2 out of 5 Slight risk of severe weather. This will be a QLCS, or a quasi-linear convective system – basically a broken squall line with strong winds and a few embedded kinks of spin. It will form by lunchtime and be strongest during the afternoon hours as it pushes southeast. It won't be particularly warm or humid, meaning we don't have a ton of instability, or thunderstorm fuel. That's why storms won't grow super tall... probably only 30,000 feet. BUT we'll have VERY strong jet stream winds roaring overhead. 60+ mph at 5,000 feet. So storms won't have to become very tall to tap into jet stream momentum and mix sporadic damaging gusts to the surface. Moreover, changing winds with height could allow a few segments of the broken squall line to rotate, leading to isolated tornado potential. That's mainly true in eastern Pennsylvania. It's a low, but not zero, risk.