17/ Ireland may have had a population of almost 4 million in the 7th century A paper published by Emma Hannah and Rowan McLaughlin in the Journal of Archaeological Science revealed an interesting factoid that recasts Irish history. Far from being a primitive backwater, Ireland’s early history was advanced enough to support a very large population. Their model suggested that Ireland may have had a population of almost 4 million in the 7th century. A level that wouldn’t be crossed again until the 18th century. The authors used “a large database of recently discovered archaeological sites with radiocarbon dates that [they] have analysed using Kernel Density Estimation techniques.” Their key insight was that the viking invasion period of Ireland began after a 300 year period of population decline. This would suggest that Ireland faced severe problems that impacted its population and, therefore, weakened it before any vikings arrived. This context provides more nuance to understanding the societal status of Ireland in those times. Ireland’s population kept declining until about the 16th century. Their model also suggested that from about 2000 BC to 1000 BC, Ireland supported a population of about 2 million. After halving for the next 1000-1200 years, Ireland experienced rapid growth from 200 AD to 700 AD and reached its 4 million figure. What could explain all this? How could the primitive backwater of Ireland, which the English tell us so much about, produce a society to support this? Ireland had somewhat of a monopoly on copper from 2400 to 1100 BC. Then by the time their copper mines ran dry in 1100 BC, they started to exploit native gold mines until about 500 BC. They didn’t stop at being just a main supplier of the raw commodities but also advanced in the craft of metallurgy that would outlast their native mine reserves. Hence, they eventually started to import copper and tin from western Britain. Researchers have found Irish metalwork as far inland as Germany. Ireland wasn’t a primitive backwater in ancient times. It was the ancient Silicon Valley of Europe. Their metals and metallurgy were in high demand across Europe and this made Ireland an active trade hub. This economic comparative advantage was why the geographically western fringe of Europe became a central node. The dawn of the Iron Age, with iron supplies being much more widely dispersed and its final products much more durable, reduced Ireland’s advantage which explains the thousand year lull after the Bronze Age. By around 50 AD, the Roman Empire expanded to Britain and Ireland gained a massive trade partner. It’s residual economic niche combined with the new Roman demand are the core reasons Ireland’s population shot up to about 4 million by 700 AD. The subsequent population decline could have various factors. It’s likely that the collapse of the Roman Empire in the 5th century would diminish the capacity for trade with its post-Roman territories. The Plague of Justinian of 541 AD continued to impact the wider world for decades. It reached Ireland in the Plague of 664 AD. This would line up perfectly with the inflection point. There’s also evidence that persistent volcanic effects forced severe winter cold events between 431 and 1649 AD on Ireland which could have led to worse harvests. The paper’s authors provided some reasons: "Nor was there a single root cause for the decline, and although the cumulative effects of political unrest, famines and plagues could take their toll (e.g. Dooley, 2007), the radiocarbon KDE between 400 and 700 CE offers compelling evidence that early medieval society had been resilient against such events during its phase of growth. Furthermore, because the aged fall victim to plague more readily than those of child-bearing age, their long-term demographic effects tend to be over-emphasized in medieval narratives, as economic historians are keen to point out (e.g. Russell, 1958: p139). We suggest instead that the long-term oscillation seen in early medieval Ireland, and indeed during earlier prehistoric phases, could represent a so-called structural-demographic cycle (Goldstone, 1991). During its phase of population growth, the secular élites in Ireland would have faced ever increasing competition with each other, as the agricultural surplus of the land was redirected to nourish a growing population. Land would have become prized though demand, and labour cheapened by over-supply. Declining living standards therefore constrained fertility rates, as did the related milieu of political strife. Into this vacuum stepped the church, whose influence steadily spread over the centuries in question (e.g. O’Sullivan and McCormick, 2017), but did not halt the loss of popula- tion. Another possible and perhaps related explanation is continued outwards migration to Britain or Europe. In particular, the strong linguistic and archaeological connections between northern Ireland and Scotland are well known (although see Campbell, 2001 for a nuanced view) and recent genomic evidence confirms a close bond with Ireland. Today’s residents of southwest Scotland have greater haplotypic similarity with southern Irish populations than those now living in the north of Ireland (Byrne et al., 2018), consistent with a significant past migration that fossilised a group of Irish haplotypes in a corner of Britain." This paper provided a new way to look Ireland. Ireland’s population did not start small and then grow in linear fashion after Normans and English “brought civilization to Ireland”. Ireland’s population was already huge. Its native civilization was already sophisticated, relative to Europe, long before Norman identity was constructed. Ireland’s population went up and down due to macro-economic shifts from the Bronze Age to the Iron Age, the expansion and contraction of the Roman Empire, severe plagues, and internal societal dysfunction caused by all that. Source: The Journal of Archaeological Science via ScienceDirect

There’s an argument here that between 2500 BC and 800 BC, Ireland was the most advanced European society.

Chinese 20th century scholar Guo Moruo had a very strong appreciation for the Irish. He made a poem called “Victorious Death” praising Irish hunger striker Terence MacSwiney. “Honoured MacSwiney! / Dear sons of Ireland, / the spirit of freedom will ever stand by you, / for you stand by one another, you are the incarnation of freedom!” (99). It closes with a passionate elegy: The mighty ocean is sobbing its sad lament, the boundless abyss of the sky is red with weeping, far, far away the sun has sunk in the west. Brave, tragic death! Death in a blaze of glory! Triumphant death!* Victorious death! Impartial God of Death! I am grateful to you! You have saved MacSwiney, for whom my love and reverence know no bounds! MacSwiney, fighter for freedom, you have shown how great can be the power of the human will! I am grateful to you! I extol you! Freedom can henceforth never die! The night has closed down on us, but how bright is the moon.”