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Short-term: trend > value > fundamentals
Long-term: fundamentals > value > trend
Investors need to be aligned with process AND time horizon
Jake retweeted
An absolute banger for the future AI bubble coffee table book.
IN BOLD:
"Our portfolio is well positioned to compound at 40% to 50% or higher over the next several years"
Dailyboxstats.com has college football too
dailyboxstats.com/
I got tired of digging through websites to see how players did each day, so I spent 45 minutes and built a box score site.
dailyboxstats.com
Full daily leaders & full box scores for the NFL, NCAA Football, NBA, MLB, NHL and European soccer.
Front page summary… click through pages behind it.
Just saw an ad during the World Series from Meta saying AI doomers should be ignored and that they are “betting on people”
Ok…
Meta now has fewer employees than it did 5 years ago.
With more than 2x the revenue base.
$META
Value investors (who throughout history relied on markets being inefficient) complaining that market structure has made markets... inefficient... is what makes them dinosaurs.
Quit complaining and revise your process to take advantage of what is likely even more inefficient than it was historically.
David Einhorn explains why the value investing industry has been defeated, and walks through how it leaves Greenlight as a "dinosaur"
“The market structure has changed, and there has been what I consider to be a broken market, or the value investing industry, I think, is defeated, so to speak."
"It used to be that most money was invested by these long-only investors, these big mutual funds and stuff like that."
"And they had money coming in every day, and they were getting nice fees on all of that money, and they had large research teams, and they would sit around following all of the companies with teams of analysts and they would say this company we think is undervalued by 30% and it might be a growth stock or a value stock or Magnificent Seven or otherwise, but they would say I think this is undervalued by 30% and if I buy it and I hold it I’ll make the S&P plus 30."
"Now as we’ve moved to passive they’ve lost their customers and the remaining customers are paying them lower fees and they have reduced their research staffs and they don’t have new money coming in to make new investments in any case."
"But the market is now dominated by passives, index funds, which buy what everyone else has already decided things are worth, or algorithms, which are basically trying to figure out what is everybody else doing and how do I front run that, or retail, which is buying things because they think it’s cool or they think it’s going up."
"And so most of the investing these days is no longer done by people who are buying something because they think it’s worth more. They have opinions about price, like what is the price going to be tomorrow. And so the result is most trading that is going on right now has nothing to do with value."
"So it leaves us sort of as a dinosaur. We’re one of the remaining few people left who are looking at things on a traditional basis.”
Buckle up...
It is reported by @PabloTorre today that the huge $8.35B Dodgers TV deal was negotiated directly by Walter (owner of the regional media company, American Media Productions)… to Walter (owner of the Dodgers), reportedly before he acquired the Dodgers and seemingly contingent on him doing so. This let Walter bid ~$700M above the next-highest offer, despite it being reported at the time that he had no secured media deal in hand.
Time Warner Cable was the counterparty that agreed to pay AMP $8.35B over 25 years for the rights to distribute SportsNet LA, a deal that backed the whole structure. It was brokered by David Rone, then President of Time Warner Cable Networks. Industry experts questioned the logic of that inflated price for years, it drove the local blackouts, and it became a real risk on Time Warner's books ahead of its eventual sale to Charter Communications. Rone was later hired by... Walter into Guggenheim as a managing partner, a role he still holds today.
The deal required such high fees to be charged to local cable that roughly 70% of Dodgers fans were blacked out for years because providers wouldn't pay it. Then in 2015, Walter sold Magic Johnson a controlling stake in an insurance company (EquiTrust), reportedly as repayment for Johnson's help winning the 2012 Dodgers bid... an insurance company that then helped fund the payments to the Dodgers through a loan under the deal Walter negotiated with himself.
Good morning. youtu.be/YBvdMVY7LW4?si=DPpy…
Oh Magic... xitter.cf/junkbondinvest/status/…
So let me get this straight. Walters' own insurance companies stopped lending to his other businesses once they got subpoenaed back in Feb
In just weeks, insurers owned by Amistad, a holdco where Magic is a board member, lent ~$2.3bn to Walter companies/intermediaries (BBG)
Amistad isn’t technically a Walter affiliate. But they share his office address, his firm (Guggenheim) manages its insurers’ money, and his brother-in-law runs one of them.
Kind of related, right?
If @chamath says it's money good... it's money good
Way way way too early 2026/27 mood
East
1) Celtics
2) Knicks
3) Pistons
4) Pacers
5) Hawks
6) Cavs
7) Heat
8) Raptors
9) Hornets
10) Magic
West
1) Thunder
2) Spurs
3) Nuggets
4) Wolves
5) Lakers
6) Rockets
7) Blazers
8) Jazz
9) Clippers
10) Warriors
Current mood
Final regular season mood…
East
1) Knicks
2) Pistons
3) Cavs
4) Pacers
5) Celtics
6) Raptors
7) Sixers
8) Magic
9) Hawks
10) Heat
West
1) Spurs
2) Thunder
3) Rockets
4) Lakers
5) Nuggets
6) Wolves
7) Blazers
8) Jazz
9) Warriors
10) Mavs
The deal that was so bad the league immediately investigated it, was not helped by the coaches decision to DNP him in their first game…
Amazing.
Free agent guard Gary Trent Jr. has agreed to a four-year, $64 million deal to stay with the Milwaukee Bucks, Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul and agent Lucas Newton tells ESPN.
New Highlights of the Day page with detailed box scores and player performances (NBA example) dailyboxstats.com/?view=high…
I got tired of digging through websites to see how players did each day, so I spent 45 minutes and built a box score site.
dailyboxstats.com
Full daily leaders & full box scores for the NFL, NCAA Football, NBA, MLB, NHL and European soccer.
Front page summary… click through pages behind it.
Over the past few months I've experimented with AI generated writing, videos, and websites... the only negative feedback I received was about writing (not necessarily the results, but the practice of doing it).
Interesting...
How can you not love this guy? Going at the superstars.
Yaxel Lenderborg on his NBA debut and guarding Luka: "I got to see what the NBA is like, man. Lot of flopping, lot of foul baiting, lot of praying to the ref. Interesting first game for me... Being in there firsthand, just watching all the whining and complaining, I lost all respect. That was awful"
Transcript of this soundbite:
"Yeah, it was interesting. I got to see what the NBA is like, man. Lot of flopping, lot of foul baiting, lot of praying to the ref. Interesting first game for me, for sure.
I had a lot of respect for him (Luka). You know, just watching. I didn't really watch the NBA much, I just watched highlights. Seeing him, you know, kill people all the time. But then being in there firsthand, just watching all the whining and complaining, I lost all respect, man. Like that was awful.
Like me getting frustrated, it's not about the foul being called, it's about him complaining the entire game. And then you get the foul call, congratulations bro. And then you talk to me like you did something great, bro? Come on, dog. That's just weak. It kinda threw me off for a little while, cause you know, like I said, I had so much respect for him. Gone man, gone.
I was telling him he sucks, he can't score on me. You talking and you can't score on me. I said it the whole game. I said a couple cuss words obviously, you know, that's why I got the technical and all that. But I was letting him know, because he was laughing and talking all this because of that one foul call.
His only bucket on me was a banker from half court. Like I know that it's a team sport. You know, he had 28pts on us as a team. Me, I took my matchup personally. Tried not to get caught on the fouls. Tried my best. I was thinking about playing him with my hands behind my back to see if that worked, probably would've still got a foul call."
Transcript via:
reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1x…































