Helping investors navigate the modern credit environment. 📈 https://teapawt.net/t.co/ONXgp6DPLD 📧 [email protected]
USA
Joined February 2025
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Build Markets retweeted
Governments, banks, and Big Tech are on a collision course. How do they control the technology their economies depend upon?
China weighs AI model restrictions, DoJ scrutinizes Nvidia, and European sovereign debt competes with AI for capital.
with @CameronOtsuka and @LeveredUSTs
Build Markets retweeted
How will Big Tech pay for the next phase of AI?
Meta's CapEx now exceeds its operating cash flow. Tesla and SpaceX are exploring a merger. @LeveredUSTs examines the AI capital race of equity dilution, debt, and dealmaking.
Build Markets retweeted
The AI boom is hitting a balance-sheet wall.
@LeveredUSTs notes the unwinding leveraged carry trade in French OATs and links a big drop in long-end Treasury yields to Meta's earnings call.
Build Markets retweeted
.@LeveredUSTs sees Zelensky moving from "playing to win" to "playing not to lose." Potential Abu Dhabi talks may put security, sanctions, energy and Russian assets in play, with the US, Russia, and China at the negotiating table.
Build Markets retweeted
How much capital will the AI boom vacuum up in 2027?
@LeveredUSTs points out Meta's CapEx exceeding its operating cash flow, raising the prospect of new share issuance and a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger could open another financing route.
Build Markets retweeted
Could rising yields trigger a Treasury selloff?
Harley Bassman warns 30Y Treasury futures have turned negatively convex for the first time since 2007. As yields rise, duration risk could jump, prompting more bond selling. @LeveredUSTs models a $110B scenario.
Build Markets retweeted
High-yield issuance is surging: why are borrowers rushing for worse terms?
@LeveredUSTs examines two cases: JetBlue bonds yield 23% as fuel costs and weak demand bite & CoreWeave's unsecured debt yields 13.5%, squeezing speculative AI expansion.
Build Markets retweeted
Fuel accounted for more than half of September's CPI increase.
Diesel and refining constraints remain central to 2026's inflation story, helping to partially explain the US' reversal on Russian oil sanctions and its new diesel import deal, as @LeveredUSTs explains.
Build Markets retweeted
Is negative convexity about to trigger Q4 trouble?
Energy inflation is squeezing credit across airlines and AI infrastructure. @LeveredUSTs dives into whether negative convexity in Treasury futures could add fuel to a broader bond market selloff.
Build Markets retweeted
We've been working behind the scenes on a project we're excited to share. The full picture will be revealed on Friday...
Subscribe to our Substack to get the latest posts, notifications, and the reveal.
Build Markets retweeted
What political philosophy will define the future of the West?
Rubio's Acropolis speech invokes the American republic and Western civilization. @LeveredUSTs offers Chrystia Freeland's "Unreliable Boyfriend" as a contrasting view to US leadership.
Build Markets retweeted
UK DIGIT plans to tokenize British gilts by 2027 as bond markets strain. What does that actually change?
The ECB's Pontes bets on central-bank settlement; the US' GENIUS Act on private stablecoins. @LeveredUSTs uses the Mine Print Hash lens and asks: what makes money sound?
Build Markets retweeted
November's midterms are a referendum on how America powers and pays for the datacenter buildout.
The Ratepayer Protection Act pits federal oversight against state-led initiatives. @LeveredUSTs sees widening Oracle spreads and French debt stress underlining the financing risks.
Build Markets retweeted
Factions with competing visions for the West are in competition.
The failure to pass the Ratepayer Protection Act, UK's DIGIT (digital gilts), and @SecRubio's speech in front of the Acropolis bring the divide into focus for @LeveredUSTs and @CameronOtsuka.
Build Markets retweeted
Could America.gov mark the end of the Napoleonic era of government?
@LeveredUSTs sees a possible future: replace layers of bureaucracy with a single AI interface for public services that could lower overhead and simplify access.
Build Markets retweeted
AI's investment cycle may be shifting from buildout to harvest.
Micron is piling cash and paying down debt as its investments mature. @LeveredUSTs think the signs point to a cyclical CapEx breather and not the end of AI growth.
Build Markets retweeted
Sovereign debt stress is hitting the front pages.
At the same time, @LeveredUSTs notes MOVE has jumped above 110, junk spreads are widening, and Skydance's $52B financing is testing how much risk the credit market can still absorb.
Build Markets retweeted
America.gov may be the end of the Napoleonic model of government.
As credit tightens and AI capex moves into harvesting, @LeveredUSTs & @CameronOtsuka explore how an agentic government interface could reshape the citizen-state relationship.
