@CdnElectWatch

British Columbian, former Quebecer. I sometimes discuss politics (duh). (Real job: dismal scientist)

 British Columbia, Canada
cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.com/
Joined August 2012
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Replying to @CdnElectWatch
Update: After further analysis of the counting procedure, the most likely final election results appear to be: 62 🔵 47.7% 29 🟠 37.7% 2 🟢 11.0% 0 🔴 1.6% 0 1⃣ 1.5% NDP strongly favoured to flip Ladysmith-Oceanside, while Cowichan Valley and Kelowna Centre are near tossups.
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The BC herding was insane. While results weren't disastrously off - polls missed the final margin by 4-5 points on average - they were so tightly bunched that no poll in the last 3 weeks was closer than 3 points off.
Nate Silver
@NateSilver53819h
Within <=3 weeks of the election, it tends to be more predictable what particular pollsters will say about particular races and that's not a good thing, actually.
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0th percentile!!! I wonder what the number for Canada is. The last two weeks' elections told us that, at least in BC, people are grumpy and throwing out incumbents left and right.
Jason Furman
@jasonfurmanOct 26
People in rich countries are unhappy. In the US they're truly miserable. Sentiment fell more in the US since 2019 than any other country. US sentiment at the 0th percentile of pre-COVID history, others generally around 25th percentile. And our economy doing better than most!
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The Law Society of BC strongly supports DRIPA and is very woke in general. Not sure if the @Conservative_BC is trying to build goodwill, or if this foreshadows them caving to the judicial establishment.
Reality, Inc.🧢
@BCBarristerOct 26
The @Conservative_BC is going to get the government's boot off the neck of lawyers. @SteveKooner
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This beats Trudeau's 2019 song, whose first verse was mistranslated to something like "Take off a high hand for any hand" in French, by a country mile.
Yashar Ali 🐘
@yashar23h
The final campaign ad from Israel’s Yashar! party, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, who is seeking to replace Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister.
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A beautiful bellwether, actually. Voted for the party winning the most seats in 10 consecutive BC elections. Which is weird as its setup (most urban seat in BC) and demographics (lots of young people, few families with kids) are completely unrepresentative.
Melty 🎖️🎖️@masking_ddOct 26
A beautiful Conservative riding
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"I'm very very very very very bad at understanding why people support politicians I don't support."
Christo Aivalis 🌹🍊
@christoaivalisOct 26
Look, I'll take it. But I don't get why Carney and Kamala partisans are cheering on Lula Bolsonaro is objectively closer to your ideological worldview
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Election Watcher retweeted
Raphael Nishimura@rnishimuraOct 26
Três mapas que mostram como essa eleição foi uma loucura: 1) Variação de votos entre 2022 e 1° turno 2) Variação de votos entre 1° e 2° turno 3) Variação de comparecimento entre o 1° e 2° turno.
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I spent some time on Reddit during the campaign (never checked out Reddit's political stuff before). My conclusion is that almost zero NDP supporters understand basic accounting for how infrastructure counts in the deficit. Worse, they get angry when you explain it to them.
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"We have a big deficit because we're building a bunch of schools and hospitals!" 🤦‍♂️ We need to start teaching this stuff in high schools.
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BC voters reconsidered their 2024 choice. Big time!
Election Watcher@CdnElectWatchSep 22
Replying to @Dave_Eby
We picked you in 2024 for whatever challenges our province might face in 2024-28. Your majority was solidified when you gained an MLA. Sounds like you want us to reconsider our choice.
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What happened with immigration 2022-24 and with extortion now is taken as proof that progressives are incapable of governing. With good reason, I might add.
Syntheticus Humanitus
@TheChaosWeeberOct 26
We've now seen at the federal level and provincial level that the south Asian community has swung hard to the right. As a Federal Liberal this makes me very uneasy post Trump.
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Not sure if this is: - Conservatives have asked BC Ferries to fire the guy, - "Yay, we can finally fire this incompetent NDP guy!", or - "He's leaving soon anyway, so we better fire him now to give him a sweetheart severance."
Rob Shaw
@RobShaw_BCOct 26
NEW - @BCFerries has fired CEO Nicolas Jimenez. The surprise move, described by the board as part of a "revitalization review," comes 2 days after the BC election in which @Dave_Eby - who had close ties to Jimenez - was defeated by @LDoerkson and the @Conservative_BC
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Lowan's speech was the ugliest election night speech I can remember from the leader of a party getting over 5% in Canada. It was like 100x Andrew Scheer's lack of grace in 2019. Hopefully people have enough of her by 2030 and we can get rid of this American-style ugly politics.
Miles Lunn 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇮🇱🇬🇱@mileslunnOct 26
Just watched victory speech by Doerkson and very gracious. Recognized his opponents and tried to reach out to all British Columbians. Hit all the right notes. How he governs obviously still be to be seen but unlike Lowan's which was bitter & partisan his was good.
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BC election: initial count complete To come: final count starting on Nov. 6. The following 6 categories of ballots will be added (2024 number of ballots in parentheses): - Vote by mail (78,412) - In-district election-day vote away from assigned poll (67,177 valid votes in 2017)
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Results so far 63 🔵 862,688 (48.06%) 28 🟠 670,811 (37.37%) 2 🟢 196,896 (10.97%) 0 🔴 29,104 (1.62%) 0 1⃣ 27,056 (1.51%) 0 Independent 3,202 (0.18%) 0 Unaffiliated 2,679 (0.15%) 0 LBT 1,105 (0.06%) 0 COM 559 (0.03%) 0 CHP 459 (0.03%) 0 CWP 447 (0.02%) 0 FRE 127 (0.01%)
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Valid: 1,795,133 Rejected: 4,417 (0.25% of votes considered) Considered: 1,799,550 (48.14% of registered voters as of Oct. 14) I estimate that the turnout was ~53%, including votes to be considered at the final count.
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Polls left at 12:10am: - Burnaby North: 5 advance - Coquitlam-Burke Mtn: 1 advance - Fraser-Nicola: 3 e-day - Juan de Fuca-Malahat: 1 advance - Kootenay-Monashee: 1 e-day - Langford-Highlands: 3 e-day - Langley-Abbotsford: 2 e-day - Langley-Willowbrook: 1 advance
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At 4:30pm, Prince George-North Cariboo reported 1 poll. At 5pm, Prince George-North Cariboo reported its last poll, though its vote count did not increase. The only 3 polls left are in Fraser-Nicola.
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Results from the last 3 polls in Fraser-Nicola were posted this morning. Initial count is complete as of 10:34am.
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Election Watcher retweeted
Mario Canseco@mario_cansecoOct 26
Our “Exit Poll” in British Columbia: Only 31% of #bcpoli voters say they would have cast a ballot for the BC Conservatives under John Rustad and just 25% say they would have done the same had Kerry-Lynne Findlay remained as leader. researchco.ca/2026/10/26/bc-…

How British Columbia Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

BC Conservative voters welcomed Lorne Doerkson and would not have backed the party under its previous full-time leaders.

researchco.ca
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My tweet pointing out the flip in Ladysmith-Oceanside is great - it unearthed so many conspiracy theorists for me to block.
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