Trying to understand the world. @uchicago and @unmsm_ alumni. Peruvian. Founder: https://xitter.cf/t.co/Wlu4hGVpVq

Chicago, IL
Joined January 2021
I am very happy to launch the first version of RIGOR (rigor.qhawarina.pe/) This project was born while I was using prompts to evaluate the internal consistency of my own papers, whether the mathematics behind them was correct, whether the results were novel, and how to frame them against the current literature (those prompts are on my GitHub: github.com/cesarchavezp29/ri…). I was finding huge improvements in my papers with those "adversarial" reviews, so the idea naturally evolved in something more mature as producing AI-made audit reports, but looking for ways to verify the AI's answers and optimize token use. TLDR: Specialized AI reports from $5 and General Audit reports from $10, using your own API, for social science papers.
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Cesar Chavez retweeted
La esposa de Harry Kane / Yo viéndolo ganar un Balón de Oro después de verlo perder todo en su carrera
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Cesar Chavez retweeted
I am writing a PHD Econ admissions letter for a young economist. Here is a distinctive Star Wars reference embedded in my letters. I dictated to Chat GPT and asked the robot to clean up my memo. I will edit this before submitting.
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Work hard in silence. Let success be your noise. 🏆
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I wonder whether econ + pol. science would be more robust if we learn to live with: - "messy" empirical results (mixed support for theories) - papers of the type -- here is an important question & plausible, carefully worked out theory that is nevertheless was wrong. Takes?
The best lesson I learned from Uchicago Econ during my undergrad was: “Find an interesting and important question first, then find methods to study it.” Not the other way around.
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Student from UChicago on Hypergamy
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I thought that this year would not able to get any R&R because I shot higher but somehow I got three.
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We are in the Econ Job Market this year with 2 positions. Come to work with us at ColMex! Great students and amazing research support! I'm happy to talk about our department with anyone interested, email or DM me. Please share it widely with your students.
The Center for Economic Studies invites applications for two Tenure-Track Assistant Professor positions in all fields of Economics. 🗓️Application deadline: January 1, 2027, at 23:59 (UTC-6) 🖥️Apply via JOE: aeaweb.org/joe/listing.php?J… ❗More info: bit.ly/PlazasCEE
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Cesar Chavez retweeted
How should an agent prepare for an unexpected decision problem? This paper studies this question trying to uncover how the nature and timing of a decision problem affects the dynamic patterns of learning; for example, what to learn about and when. econometricsociety.org/publi…
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Cesar Chavez retweeted
The best lesson I learned from Uchicago Econ during my undergrad was: “Find an interesting and important question first, then find methods to study it.” Not the other way around.
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Very happy to share a new paper, “Technology Bottlenecks: Measuring Where AI Could Raise the Value of Work It Cannot Yet Do.” AI exposure measures ask about the work AI is capable of doing. We ask instead where the marginal value of work AI cannot yet do may rise as AI speeds up the rest of the job. To do so, we employ 288 million U.S. job postings mapped line by line to their closest O*NET tasks and GPT-4 feasibility ratings from Eloundou et al. (2024) to construct a measure, “bottleneck pressure,” for each task in each occupation that posts it. Using a simple task-based framework, we derive this pressure at the task level, showing that for an AI-infeasible task it is the exposure of the occupation that posts it, so the same task can face very different bottleneck pressure in different jobs. Reporting bottleneck pressure alongside AI exposure shows both the scope for AI to perform work and where improving the work it cannot do may pay off more as capabilities expand.
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Cesar Chavez retweeted
One of my favorite papers in the LLMs & Social Sciences literature is Ashokkumar et al. which shows that LLMs (GPT-4) asked to simulate how people respond in survey experiments is predictive of actual trt effects & the result is not likely to be memorization; their data & code are public and I used it to do a follow-up w/ more recent models 1/
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The plenary speakers that year were Chari, Heckman, and Woodford. (Heckman was abducted by a taxi driver, but still showed up to his talk with a black eye and all. The true grit of a scholar. I am still in awe.)
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Sempre un piacere per me … un grande piacere
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The G.O.A.T. just won't stop poasting 😤
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The G.O.A.T. just won't stop poasting 😤
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Central Bank Communication: Old and New Challenges We are currently putting special emphasis on the topic of "Central Bank Communication: Old and New Challenges." High-quality research and policy papers, podcasts, and other relevant content will be featured across our channels. In addition to our own selections, we encourage you to submit your contributions via this form: forms.cloud.microsoft/r/4pM5… --------------------------------------- Thought-provoking! "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?" by Alan S. Blinder, Michael Ehrmann, Jakob de Haan, and David-Jan Jansen. "Central banks are increasingly reaching out to the general public to motivate and explain their monetary policy actions. One major aim of this outreach is to ensure accountability and create trust; another is to guide inflation expectations. This article surveys a rapidly growing literature on central bank communication with the public, rather than with the financial markets. We first discuss why such communication matters and is more challenging than communicating with expert audiences. Then we turn to methods: How do central banks try to reach the public, and do they succeed? Next, and importantly, we survey the empirical evidence on the extent to which this new outreach affects inflation expectations. On balance, we see some promise in the potential to inform the public better, but many challenges along the way." Journal of Economic Literature: aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.12… Ungated version: research.vu.nl/en/publicatio…
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Cesar Chavez retweeted
France’s 35-hour workweek didn’t generate work-sharing: absent tax cuts, employment would have fallen 3.8%, concentrated among lower-skill workers. TFP rose 2%, output fell 1%, from @PaulineCarry, @cmontialoux, @ElioNimier, Alexandra Roulet, and @ninaroussille nber.org/papers/w35917
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Out today at Research Policy, with @DShvadron, Lee Fleming, and @HansenZhang13, "Measuring the production of scientific human capital: New data, methods, and evidence on the U.S. scientific training ecosystem." We parsed acknowledgements from 1.2M US STEM dissertations since 1950 to get the most detailed reading yet possible on who funds PhD training, down to specific firms or funding agencies and offices (hint: overwhelmingly it's federal agencies, but philanthropies and firms also important at certain times, fields, or programs), who is funding PhDs in critical & emerging tech areas (CETs) which are national priorities + where they're getting trained, and provide evidence of crowd-in from federal support. Link: sciencedirect.com/science/ar… (Ungated: dpgross.com/papers/measuring…) Hard to escape the massive role the USG plays in supporting the training of the future scientific workforce, which is clear in these data. And the level of support is for various reasons probably underreported already---so this is just a lower bound. This is the starting point for a broader agenda on renewed measurement of the US PhD population. More to come--incl. detailed evidence on international mobility (coming soon), rapidly growing use of AI in dissertation writing (posted), reporting of the graduates different US fed agencies have supported and what they're doing now (in the hopper), and more. Huge credit to Dror and Hansen for cracking the technology needed to make this possible!
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Cesar Chavez retweeted
VFI Toolkit's CalibrateLifeCycleModel and CalibrateOLGModel make model calibration easy. Two replications to show off just how easy: Huggett, Ventura & Yaron (2011) - Sources of Lifetime Inequality and (2006) - Human Capital and Earnings Distn Dynamics shorturl.at/K0XZ5
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