@ChadThackeray

Climate scientist @UCLA. @UWaterloo/@Laurier Alum. Raptors, Eagles, LFC fan

 Los Angeles, CA
scholar.google.com/citations?user=7kpEZmsAAAAJ&hl=en
Joined April 2009
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  • Followers387
184Media
In a new report, we (@peedublya @ProfAlexHall @GavinDayanga) explore the weather and climate factors that allowed the Los Angeles fires to become so large and destructive. @UCLA @UCLAIoES @UCLASustainLA Full report: sustainablela.ucla.edu/2025l… Summary: ioes.ucla.edu/article/climat…

Study: Climate Change A Factor In Unprecedented LA Fires

UCLA researchers breakdown the role climate change played in the January 2025 LA fires.

sustainablela.ucla.edu
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We're headed for an El Niño that is — quite literally — off the charts. WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update shows that El Niño is forecast to exceed the scale of global monitoring charts. Its impacts will be felt well into 2027. Read the full update: bit.ly/4z2MhwQ
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While local impacts from the upcoming El Niño are tough to forecast, we can expect to see the effects of all that warm water reflected in the occurrence of heavy rainfall events globally in 2027. Our recent work also shows an important role for warmth in other tropical basins.
Jeff Berardelli
@WeatherProfOct 22
😮 Comparing El Nino’s Current State: 2026 makes 1997 look like Child’s Play! Who lived in #Florida in 1997-1998? I was a whipper-snapper weatherman in #Tampa back then. It was a crazy winter. The strongest El Niño on record brought Florida’s worst #tornado outbreak and more than triple the normal winter rainfall. 🌧️ In the image below I made an apples to apples comparison of sea surface temperature anomalies on Oct 20th. I thought it would reveal a closer comparison. Instead it shows 2026 is simply in a league of its own. Thus we expect big impacts on the winter weather. It’s important to note though that every El Niño event is different. We know it will be very active and wet in Florida, but we simply don’t know exactly how and where it will materialize. Tornadoes are more likely, but not guaranteed. It will be rainier than normal, but 3-4X like 1997? We just don’t know yet. #elnino #elniño
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Paper link: science.org/doi/10.1126/scia… Press release: newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/w…

Record-setting heavy precipitation occurrence in 2024

Precipitation extremes have increased globally in recent decades, consistent with a warming climate. We find that 2024 experienced a record-high frequency of heavy (≥99th percentile; FP≥99) precipi...

science.org
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Chad Thackeray retweeted
Jeff Berardelli
@WeatherProfOct 22
😮 Comparing El Nino’s Current State: 2026 makes 1997 look like Child’s Play! Who lived in #Florida in 1997-1998? I was a whipper-snapper weatherman in #Tampa back then. It was a crazy winter. The strongest El Niño on record brought Florida’s worst #tornado outbreak and more than triple the normal winter rainfall. 🌧️ In the image below I made an apples to apples comparison of sea surface temperature anomalies on Oct 20th. I thought it would reveal a closer comparison. Instead it shows 2026 is simply in a league of its own. Thus we expect big impacts on the winter weather. It’s important to note though that every El Niño event is different. We know it will be very active and wet in Florida, but we simply don’t know exactly how and where it will materialize. Tornadoes are more likely, but not guaranteed. It will be rainier than normal, but 3-4X like 1997? We just don’t know yet. #elnino #elniño
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NWS Los Angeles
@NWSLosAngelesOct 20
A storm system headed for S California will bring widespread rain to the area late tonight thru Thursday. There is a chance of thunderstorms with potential for heavy downpours, lightning, strong wind gusts and a very small chance of a brief tornado. #CAwx
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Nahel Belgherze
@WxNB_Oct 20
JUST IN: France appears to have just broken its national 1-hour, 2-hour, and 3-hour rainfall records, pending official confirmation. Solenzara, on the island of Corsica, has recorded a jaw-dropping 380 mm (15 inches) of rain since 9 a.m.
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CNN
@CNNOct 19
The Trump administration’s cuts to weather satellites will set the country back nearly a decade, experts say. The loss of data used to observe, forecast and research extreme weather could prevent the US from making major advances in weather prediction in the coming years. cnn.it/4k6eD4o

Trump admin cuts to satellites will set back US weather forecasting by a decade | CNN

The Trump administration reduced the number of planned US weather satellites and removed key tools. Experts say it will set our weather forecasts back nearly a decade, especially for extreme weather...

cnn.com
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Science Advances@ScienceAdvancesOct 9
A new study confirms the record-high frequency of heavy precipitation events globally in 2024. scim.ag/3VQ5L92
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NWS Los Angeles
@NWSLosAngelesOct 14
Gusty #SantaAnaWinds will be common region-wide tomorrow through Saturday. Some areas that don't typically see gusty Santa Ana Winds, such as the Los Angeles Basin, may see breezy east winds Friday and Saturday. Plan for power outages and travel delays. #CAwx
Gusty Santa Ana Winds with Warnings and Advisories issued

ALT Gusty Santa Ana Winds with Warnings and Advisories issued

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The strongest and most widespread offshore wind event in some time will occur in California, creating hazardous fire weather through the rest of the week. Conditions will be the worst Thursday and Friday. Winds should be the strongest in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors in SoCal, with widespread gusts of 35-55 mph and as high as 50-70 mph in the most wind-prone places. In NorCal, winds could gust to 40 mph in exposed spots like the North Bay and the west slope Northern Sierra. Temperatures will be above average, and humidity will be very low everywhere. Recent rains have absolutely had some positive impact on fuel moisture, but it won't be enough in many places to cancel out fire risk. Some areas didn't even get anything from our recent storms. Even then, there are past examples of devastating wildfires occurring following substantial rainfall, so everyone needs to stay vigilant. Public safety power shutoffs are expected in large swaths of both NorCal and SoCal, so make sure you visit PG&E and SCE's websites so you can plan accordingly. Take the necessary precautions so you can quickly evacuate in the event of a wildfire. Stay safe! #CAwx
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The intensifying El Niño is likely to bring above-average temperatures to much of the globe and shift rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought and floods in different regions. Read the latest WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update: bit.ly/4hFr1XD
This image is a global seasonal climate update for October to December 2026. It features two maps: one titled "Temperature Forecast" and the other "Rainfall Forecast." Both maps display color-coded regions indicating areas of below normal, normal, and above normal conditions. The bottom note states the forecast is probabilistic and issued in September 2026. The logo of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is present.

ALT This image is a global seasonal climate update for October to December 2026. It features two maps: one titled "Temperature Forecast" and the other "Rainfall Forecast." Both maps display color-coded regions indicating areas of below normal, normal, and above normal conditions. The bottom note states the forecast is probabilistic and issued in September 2026. The logo of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is present.

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NWS Los Angeles
@NWSLosAngelesOct 14
Strong winds are coming Thursday through Saturday for portions of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo Counties. Thursday Night through Friday is the most concerning. Here are some expected impacts and actions you can take to be ready. #cawx
NOW is the time to act If you are in a high fire risk area: Prepare/review your evacuation plan for you and your loved ones Stay aware of your surroundings in case a fire starts. Fill up gas tanks of cars Plan for power outages: Charge necessary electronic and lighting devices Fill up generators if you have them. Secure any loose outdoor items Park cars away from trees Use extreme caution with anything that can spark a fire.

ALT NOW is the time to act If you are in a high fire risk area: Prepare/review your evacuation plan for you and your loved ones Stay aware of your surroundings in case a fire starts. Fill up gas tanks of cars Plan for power outages: Charge necessary electronic and lighting devices Fill up generators if you have them. Secure any loose outdoor items Park cars away from trees Use extreme caution with anything that can spark a fire.

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Rachel and its moisture will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban flooding.
Rachel and its moisture will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban flooding.

ALT Rachel and its moisture will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban flooding.

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El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance). An #ElNino Advisory remains in effect. #ENSO cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a…
A bar chart showing the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño or La Niña strength (weak, moderate, strong, and very strong). Alternatively, the table at the internet address below presents the percent chances of each strength category in numerical form. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/

ALT A bar chart showing the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño or La Niña strength (weak, moderate, strong, and very strong). Alternatively, the table at the internet address below presents the percent chances of each strength category in numerical form. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/

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NWS Los Angeles
@NWSLosAngelesOct 6
Daily record high temperatures for today have been broken or tied across 8 locations today, and tying or breaking high temperature records at a few locations will still be possible through Thursday. #CAWx #CAHeat
Daily record high temperatures for today have been broken or tied across 8 locations today. With the heat continuing through Thursday, a few daily records may continue to be tied/broken each day.

ALT Daily record high temperatures for today have been broken or tied across 8 locations today. With the heat continuing through Thursday, a few daily records may continue to be tied/broken each day.

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Ben Noll
@BenNollWeatherOct 5
The brand new ECMWF El Niño forecast has just arrived, and it's quite something. It shows the El Niño peaking around or just above 4°C in December. But what's most notable is the duration of record-breaking conditions, with with many members remaining above 3°C into April!
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NWS Los Angeles
@NWSLosAngelesOct 5
As we all know it's been a very hot summer. To put this summer into context, 2026 ranks as the hottest summer of all time (June 1-Oct 4 in Downtown LA). Here is a graphic to illustrate. #LAHeat #LAwx
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NWS Los Angeles
@NWSLosAngelesOct 2
Downtown LA is now at 102, which breaks the daily record! 🥵
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NHC Pacific
@NHC_PacificSep 23
11 AM HST Wed Sep 23 (Advisory 13) Key Messages for Tropical Storm #Nolo. Latest info: hurricanes.gov
Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Nolo is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Thursday as it moves northward, potentially making its closest approach to the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Big Island, and residents there should follow advice given by local officials, including evacuating if told to do so. 2. The time to prepare for significant heavy rain and flooding impacts on the Big Island is now, as heavy rain becomes more likely by Thursday and Friday. Periods of heavy rain are likely to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected, with isolated flooding possible. 3. Large and damaging waves are possible along the coast of the Big Island into the weekend.

ALT Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Nolo is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Thursday as it moves northward, potentially making its closest approach to the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Big Island, and residents there should follow advice given by local officials, including evacuating if told to do so. 2. The time to prepare for significant heavy rain and flooding impacts on the Big Island is now, as heavy rain becomes more likely by Thursday and Friday. Periods of heavy rain are likely to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected, with isolated flooding possible. 3. Large and damaging waves are possible along the coast of the Big Island into the weekend.

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NWS Los Angeles
@NWSLosAngelesSep 10
It was a record breaking day...
Records table

ALT Records table

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