@AnthropicAI. I like dancing, self-discovery, and pursuing beauty and wholeness (Christopher Alexander megafan) 🌈
San Francisco, CA
Joined January 2013
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I'm looking for a boyfriend, with hopes of finding my life-partner, and I've just put together a dating doc (link in next tweet)! I'd love if you shared it with great gay men you know! 🙏❤️
Charlie Rogers-Smith retweeted
A statement on the comments from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.
anthropic.com/news/statement…
Charlie Rogers-Smith retweeted
Today, we are launching the most rigorous ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP).
We’ve assembled a panel of 339 top experts across computer science, AI industry, economics, and AI policy.
Roughly every month—for the next three years—they’ll provide precise, falsifiable forecasts on the trajectory of AI capabilities, adoption, and impact.
Our results cover where experts predict major effects of AI, where they expect less progress than AI industry leaders, and where they disagree.
LEAP experts forecast major effects of AI by 2030, including:
⚡ 7x increase in AI’s share of U.S. electricity use (1% -> 7%)
🖥️ 9x increase in AI-assisted work hours (2% -> 18%)
By 2040, experts predict:
👥30% of adults will use AI for companionship daily
🏆60% chance that AI will solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem
🚂32% chance that AI will have been at least as impactful as a "technology of the millennium," like the printing press or the Industrial Revolution.
🧵Read on for more insights and results
Charlie Rogers-Smith retweeted
Is AI on track to match top human forecasters at predicting the future?
Today, FRI is releasing an update to ForecastBench—our benchmark that tracks how accurate LLMs are at forecasting real-world events.
A trend extrapolation of our results suggests LLMs will reach superforecaster-level forecasting performance around a year from now.
Here’s what you need to know: 🧵
Charlie Rogers-Smith retweeted
We now have the first accuracy results from the largest-ever existential risk forecasting tournament.
In 2022, we convened 80 experts and 89 superforecasters for the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), which collected thousands of forecasts in 172 questions across short-, medium- and long-term time horizons.
We now have answers for 38 short-run questions covering AI progress, climate technology, bioweapons, nuclear weapons and more.
Here’s what we found out: 🧵
Beautiful thread. On my style of coaching, but also on principles of coaching, how transformation happens, and trusting yourself. Thanks Zoe x
I just had an awesome session with Charlie! I recommend him.
Being a coach myself, I have extremely high standards, & often look for cues that might be unintuitive—so I've decided to write up a few principles of good coaching, in the hope it will be useful to others.
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I have ~10 coaching slots open right now. If you sign up for a free exploratory call in the next week, I'm offering a steep discount: **5 sessions for $500**. Grab 'em while they last!
Charlie Rogers-Smith retweeted
New study from @PalisadeAI : When sensing defeat in a match against a skilled chess bot, AI models don’t always concede, instead sometimes opting to cheat by hacking their opponent so that the bot automatically forfeits the game. Read now in @TIME time.com/7259395/ai-chess-ch…
TBC these calls are free! Free coaching!!
I'll be doing exploratory calls for the next couple of weeks. If you're interested, please book me here: tinyurl.com/coaching-with-ch…!
I'm starting a part-time coaching practice! I've wanted this for years, and am really excited that I now have the space and clarity to make it happen :)
I also do stuff in the world! My day job is Chief of Staff at Palisade. Before that, I worked as an instructor for CFAR, did a master’s at Oxford, and developed ML models for COVID. Tyler Cowen described my paper as ‘The best mask-wearing study so far?’ (emphasis on the ‘?’)
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I'll be doing exploratory calls for the next couple of weeks. If you're interested, please book me here: tinyurl.com/coaching-with-ch…!
Willpower should (and can *only* in the long-term?) be used to buy time to find/carve paths that "just work" (no grind, no efforting), which often takes experimentation, hill-climbing gradients of Good, skill acquisition, and solving concrete problems
I earnestly believe there is no such thing as willpower, it is a collective delusion that recasts differences in how hard something is for different people as a kind of moral virtue
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(Though the willpower I'm talking about doesn't need to feel grindy, and is maybe non-central usage. It's more like a resource of will you get more of by making good bets lesswrong.com/posts/xtuk9wku…)
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