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$TSLA cheat sheet
>20x trailing 12-month revenue = overpriced
13-20x = expensive
8-12x = fair priced
5-7x= cheap
<5x = bargain basement prices
Selling most of your $TSLA to buy $SPCX before a merger?
You might regret it.
My best guess?
This gets presented as a 50/50 valuation ratio. Equal market caps, both companies walking in on equal footing.
At today's prices that's $1.48T vs $1.91T. TSLA gets marked up ~30% to meet SPCX. SPCX gets no premium.
The swap only wins if there's no deal or TSLA gets a worse ratio.
Holding 99% TSLA - no risk, no reward 🔥🚀
Tesla's 10-Q says 'disinterested directors' will decide a multi-trillion dollar deal.
Funny choice of words 🤣🤣
Legally it means no stake in $SPCX so the people setting the price answer to $TSLA holders, not Elon.
That's the part that matters.
SpaceX's new Q3 10-Q puts the Tesla combination in writing for the first time. Its board formed a special committee "to evaluate a potential combination," and any deal would need approval from that committee, the SpaceX board and its controlling shareholder. Tesla's 10-Q frames it differently: a committee of disinterested directors exploring "deepening Tesla's relationship with SpaceX," with a business combination as one possible path and any necessary shareholder approval at the end. Neither company has reached a decision, and both say there is no assurance a transaction happens. Side-by-side of the exact filing language below.
d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.ne…
The wild thing I think many are missing?
$SPCX holders won't need to vote on a merger with $TSLA
Wait what?
Yup. SpaceX's 10-Q says it needs approval by its "controlling shareholder." That's Elon.
Which is why TSLA holders are the ones who need convincing 👇
$TSLA 🤝 $SPCX
Elon is walking a tightrope right now, and it's not a knock on him. It's just incentives.
SpaceX holders aren't the hurdle. He has voting control there.
Tesla holders are. A merger needs 50% of ALL outstanding shares.
So SpaceX has to look like the crown jewel. But oversell Tesla and the price goes up. Undersell it and the vote gets harder.
That's why today we heard "not a certainty" and "no guarantee."
Nobody follows incentives better than Elon. Watch the messaging 👀
Christopher Dungeon retweeted
Tesla shareholders might get the convincing deal they’re looking for in a Tesla-SpaceX merger 🧐
Compare the 10-Q language:
🚕 Tesla: "any necessary shareholder approval"
🛰️ SpaceX: "further approval by…our controlling shareholder"
Musk's super-voting shares make him SpaceX's controlling shareholder. So if a deal clears both special committees, Tesla holders are the ones who need convincing, after years of a flat stock price
Could that mean a sweeter deal to get Tesla shareholders to say yes? 🤔
$TSLA 🤝 $SPCX
The biggest funds own way more TSLA than SPCX.
The chart shows share count. A TSLA share is worth ~2.6x an SPCX share, so in dollar terms:
- State Street: ~28x more TSLA
- Vanguard: ~18x
- Geode: ~13x
- BlackRock: ~11x
Fidelity is the exception at ~3x more SPCX.
These are the votes that decide a merger and they'll want a fair premium
Since August, TSLA has traded roughly 25-35% below SPCX in market cap.
A ~30% premium closes that gap almost exactly.
My guess?
That's not a coincidence.
$TSLA 🤝 $SPCX
We've seen this movie before: SolarCity, 2016
Then:
- Elon on both sides of the deal
- He recused himself
- First offer: a 21-30% premium
- 85%+ of shareholders other than Elon voted YES
- Shareholders still sued for years. Elon won in Delaware's Supreme Court in 2023
Now:
- Elon on both sides again
- Recused again
- Special committees of independent directors at both companies this time
That last part is the lesson learned. Independent committees set the price, then holders vote.
My take? It's slower but it's built to survive a lawsuit. And a 30% premium is right at the top of where SolarCity started.
Not here to say I told you so.
$TSLA ran into earnings, then gave it back.
Down ~2% today after dipping ~4% premarket.
Calls bought for the pop got crushed while shares just rode it out.
We all get ahead of ourselves thinking short-term gains never end. I've done it too.
Friendly reminder before tonight's $TSLA Q3 earnings... Don't get greedy with short-term options.
We've run into this countless times. TSLA can 180 into a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news reaction real fast.
It's ok to take some off the table. Let shares do your heavy lifting 🍻
$TSLA got 7 price target raises this morning.
Zero cuts. Zero downgrades.
- Piper Sandler: $475 (Overweight)
- Mizuho: $460 (Outperform)
- Canaccord: $442 (Buy)
- JPMorgan: $430 (Neutral)
- UBS: $425 (Neutral)
- Morgan Stanley: $410 (from $400)
- CLSA: $400, upgraded from Underperform to Hold
TD Cowen reiterated Buy at $460. Goldman stayed Neutral at $360.
My take?
Wall Street saw what it's buying: 75%+ FSD attach rate on new North American deliveries, positive free cash flow, and the biggest backlog in 4 years 🔥🚀
$TSLA's problem isn't demand. It's batteries.
Straight from the Q3 deck: battery availability was "the limiting factor in increasing auto volumes."
The receipts:
- Delivered 486,532 but only produced 464,391. Cars sold faster than they could be built
- Largest passenger vehicle backlog in 4 years
- More than 75% of new North America buyers added FSD
My take: deliveries down 2% YoY isn't a demand story. It's a supply story.
And Q3 2025 was a tough compare. Buyers rushed in before the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired on Sept 30, 2025, pulling demand forward into that quarter.
Down just 2% against that, with no tax credit and limited batteries? That's strength 🔋🔥
Christopher Dungeon retweeted
Q3 2026 Earnings Call xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1jxXgBNRD…
$TSLA Q3 highlights worth knowing 👇
- Robotaxi unsupervised miles up 8x in the quarter to ~2M
- Cybercab capacity in Texas: 125K+ a year
- Optimus production started on Fremont's high-volume lines
- Active FSD subs: 1.74M (+67% YoY)
- 75%+ of new North America deliveries include FSD
- FSD now approved in 9 EU countries
- Auto margin ex-credits: 18.1% (vs 15.4% a year ago)
- Free cash flow back positive: $1.53B
- Cash: $45.4B
- 10 millionth vehicle delivered
- Largest order backlog in 4 years
Operating income fell 56% as R&D jumped 69%.
My take?
That's the price of building AI, Optimus and Cybercab, not a demand problem 🔥🚀
Active $TSLA FSD Subscriptions now 1.74M
That's up 67% yoy 🔥
And 75%+ of new North America deliveries now include FSD
🤯🤯🤯