DraftKings CEO Jason Robins says the company is in a “win-win spot,” unlike most prediction markets or sportsbooks, where it should succeed regardless of how the Supreme Court views sports event contracts. “If [sports contracts are] the whole business, which for us it is not, then that's obviously critical. There's nothing to look out to if the entire sports business is gone,” Robins said. “On the other side, if you haven't done what we've done and invested and put ourselves in a position where we're meeting players in predictions now, then if a court decision goes the positive way, then that's a pretty tough spot to be in.

Ohio Escalates Prediction Markets Fight With New Warning to Gaming Licensees Via @DustinGouker & @Eric_Ramsey nexteventhorizon.substack.co…

JUST IN: @AmericanGaming urges SCOTUS to grant cert in both the New Jersey and Nevada prediction market cases and to hear and decide both cases this Term. “There is no reason to delay review” or wait for CFTC rulemaking, the AGA asserts in an amicus brief filed this evening.

NFL tells Supreme Court prediction markets are gambling and should be regulated by the states cnbc.com/2026/10/08/nfl-tell…

This is remarkable. Kalshi & Polymarket have 52% of the downloads of the Top 10. I think what a lot of people are missing is that these apps are less intimidating to general bettor and the overall interface is more graphically entertaining. (Data per @sam_mcquill)

BREAKING: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled that states can ban sports event contracts from prediction markets. The 3-0 ruling upheld decisions from the U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada against Kalshi, Crypto dot com, and Robinhood.

Treasury just announced it's DOUBLING its long bond buybacks and $BTC ripped 11% Most people don't realize that AI capex is a big part of why Treasury was forced to do this Here's a simple explainer of what buybacks are, why bitcoin cares, and where AI fits (Save This!) First, what are buybacks? Treasury normally SELLS bonds to fund the government. A buyback is the reverse. They go into the open market and buy their own bonds back from dealers. The important part to understand is that it's not paid for with new money. They fund it by issuing new debt, mostly short-term bills. The total debt outstanding barely moves because it's a swap, not money printing, so anyone telling you this is QE is wrong. They already do this, but they are now doubling the size from $2 billion max per operation to at least $4 billion, targeted at the 10 to 30 year part of the curve, starting September 9. Second, why did Treasury have to do this: Long bond yields have been ripping all year as the market is demanding a higher yield to lock up their money for up to 30 years. 3 things pushed that compensation higher: 1. Supply. July's deficit alone was $432 billion and annual interest costs are now over $1.1 trillion. 2. The buyers who didn't care about price left. Foreign central banks used to buy Treasuries for reserve reasons, not for the yield. In June alone, foreign official holders dumped $72 billion. Japan is down $123 billion since February, and part of that was selling Treasuries to raise dollars so it could defend the yen. China and Hong Kong sold $84 billion over twelve months. 3. It's global, not just the USA. Japan's 10 year is at a three decade high, German yields the highest since 2011, the UK 30 year since 1998. So dealers got stuck in the middle. When everyone sells long bonds at once, dealers absorb them and their books fill with old illiquid paper nobody wants. Dealer data right before the announcement showed exactly that: a surplus of dealers trying to sell 10 to 30 year paper with nobody bidding. That's what a buyback fixes. It clears the junk off dealer books so the plumbing works again Third, here's where AI capex enters the story: Hyperscalers stopped funding data centers out of cash flow and started borrowing with long maturities. From the exact same pool of investors that buys 30 year Treasuries. Corporate issuance in 2026 is nearly $1.5 trillion, up 36% year over year. Tech alone is around $200 billion, which is roughly 25% of Treasury's entire net issuance to private investors, and 5 TIMES what tech borrowed in 2025. Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Oracle have issued over $300 billion since early 2025. Nvidia did $25 billion, its first bond in five years. SpaceX did $25 billion. Now think about it, if Alphabet will pay you nearly 6.4% for 30 years and Meta is paying over 7.5% on data center bonds. Who wants to by the bonds Treasury is offering you 5.2%? Treasury is competing with Meta for lenders now. Bank of America estimated the corporate and mortgage supply wave added roughly 0.3 percentage points to the 10 year this year on its own To be fair, AI isn't the single biggest driver here. Deficits and inflation are bigger. But AI capex is quickly becoming an additional factor on the bond market. Fourth, why this matters for bitcoin: The strongest argument against owning bitcoin is simple. "I can get 5.3% risk free for 30 years, why would I own something that yields nothing?" Every basis point the long end rises makes that argument stronger. Every basis point it falls makes it weaker. Treasury put a bid under the long end today and said we're not letting yield remain above 5%, Somewhere around 5.3% in the thirty year, they step in to lower it Then think about what comes next. The deficit isn't shrinking and Hyperscaler issuance is scaling from $175 billion this year toward an expected $300 billion a year. Both keep pressure on the long end, which means Treasury keeps needing tools to hold it down. A government that has to actively manage the price of its own long bond, while paying over $1 trillion a year in interest and competing with trillion dollar tech companies for lenders, is the whole argument for owning a scarce asset that nobody can issue more of If this was helpful, my company runs a service where 5 top-tier analysts share our research and real-time portfolios (many who own Bitcoin), so you can see exactly what we're buying and when (and there's a discord where you can ask us why). The price is increasing on August 26, so if you sign up now you can lock in the current price for life. Learn more here: link.milkroad.com/lvwzti Don't forget to give me a follow @kylereidhead for more insights on AI and markets