US TREASURY IS BUYING BACK $12.5B OF ITS OWN DEBT This week the Treasury is buying $12.5B of Treasuries out of the market - more than the $5–6B Wall Street expected. Why it matters: 2-year yields just hit 4.42%, highest since Jan 2025. Foreign sellers have been heavy. When fewer people want long-term US debt, the government steps in to keep the market orderly. What this means for markets: - USD — Supportive near-term if buybacks calm yields. If yields keep rising anyway, the dollar can still stay firm on rate expectations. - US stocks — Lower yields = usually good for equities. Sticky or rising yields after the buyback = pressure on valuations. - BTC — Likes softer yields and risk-on. A hot inflation print or higher yields hits crypto fast. - Gold (XAU) — Benefits if the dollar softens or rates expectations ease. Stronger yields work against it. This week’s real test: Thursday inflation data. Soft numbers + yields falling = risk assets can run. Hot numbers + yields ignoring the buyback = risk-off stays in control. Buybacks buy time. They don’t create real demand.