$BTC volatility squeeze. The calm before the storm. Breakout move likely soon. Will we see a continuation upward or a breakdown? There are arguments for moves in either direction. Assuming the BTC cycle bottom is in, the trend favors a continuation upward. This would mean it would hold the 50-day MA as support (with the exception of brief wicks below it). In this case, we could see a price increase to the low-to-mid $90k's in the coming weeks. At a bare minimum we'd re-test range highs, around $87k. However, if BTC breaks decisively below the $80k support level shown, it converts the move above the May high into a deviation and then lower prices are fair game. In this case the most logical support levels immediately below are $75k and then $67.2k. I'd say both are fair game if the price can't hold $80k. Rather than try to predict the outcome (no one can see the future), let's just watch and see if Bitcoin loses $80k or not. If it holds $80k then bulls can expect more positive price action-- minimally, to $87k. The move should come soon. The decreasing volatility is telling us decision time is coming up. How I'm playing it: I'm 90% allocated with 10% cash. If we see a $94k price in short order (if the move up is quick enough; aka overheated enough) I will take a small amount of profit (a short-term trade), OR, if BTC breaks down instead, I will eye my re-entry with my final cash position to buy my last tranche of BTC.

.@Grok gives slim odds the CLARITY Act is enacted before the midterms Tomorrow isn't the final vote-- it's just the "cloture vote" to see if the bill proceeds. The House is leaving Washington in less than 3 days and they would have to vote on the newly modified bill again. The timeline for getting everything done doesn't add up very well.

🔵 How to Buy the $BTC Bottom: 20%-25% below the 200-week moving average. All past Bitcoin bear markets have provided at least ONE entry into BTC at 25% below the 200-week MA. 00:00 Intro 00:38 BTC recap. Where it is today 02:47 Historical bear market drop percentages 10:51 Spontanous Rant: Colin's long-term bullish outlook on $1M BTC 11:53 Historical bear market drop percentages, continued 13:36 The 200wk MA & great entries 20%-25% below it.

“The crowd is always wrong”, spoken by the crowd. 😂

Bitcoin Fib Retracements & The Cycle Bottom When you picture it like this, you can see we actually have a way to go before the bottom is likely in. @CryptoJelleNL correctly points out that "Every BTC bear market so far has found its bottom below the 0.618 retracement of the previous bull cycle." We've barely even tapped the upper range so far. It's still very much looking like Q4 is where the bottom will form, much to the dismay of 4-year-cycle critics. Patience is required as bottom-forming is a slow process.

$BTC Bear Market Progress* ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░ 73% BTC has been in a bear market since Oct 6, 2025. Historical bear markets (from top to bottom) have been roughly one year long. That would mean we're already 73% of the way through, *if BTC has another 12-month bear market. The good news: we could be pretty far along already.

$BTC bear market synopsis in 12 seconds

$BTC We get a little relief. And then it gets crushed later on this year.

⚠️ WARNING to @SpaceX investors ⚠️ Only about 5% of $SPCX shares are liquid right now due to the large, locked float (non-tradeable shares). This lack of availability is making it much easier to push the price up. I've seen this type of highly-restricted token release schedule in cryptocurrencies that pump massively initially due to the artificially constricted supply, only to dump later on. See the chart below for what the $SPCX unlock schedule looks like for the 95% of the shares that are currently frozen. Note that this unlock schedule completes around the end of this year, December 2026. That's a lot of unlocked sell pressure. Btw, I think Elon Musk and SpaceX are AMAZING contributions to mankind. I own 2 Tesla cars, a Power Wall, X Premium+ membership and Starlink. But this is honestly the situation with regard to this newly released stock. xitter.cf/ColinTCrypto/status/20…

Here's what the $SPCX unlock schedule looks like for the 95% of the shares that are currently frozen: IPO (June 12, 2026): Only ~4–5% public float initially available. First major unlock (~Aug 11, after Q2 earnings): Up to 20% of eligible locked shares. Rolling 7% releases every ~15 days from late August through late October. Biggest single tranche (~Nov 9, after Q3 earnings): +28%. Full unlock for eligible shares by ~December 9, 2026 (180 days post-IPO). Performance bonus: An extra +10% (total 30% after Q2) is possible if the stock stays ≥30% above the $135 IPO price. @ElonMusk & certain major investors: Separate 366-day lockup (unlocks around mid-June 2027). They do not get any of the early releases shown above. @SpaceX Unlock Chart courtesy of @grok

$BTC Bear Market Progress* ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░ 66% BTC has been in a bear market since Oct 6, 2025. The typical bear market (from top to bottom) is roughly 1 year long. That would mean we're already 66% of the way through, *if BTC has another 12-month bear market. The good news: we could be pretty far along already.

$BTC H&S Top Breakdown & Channel Breakdown Target: $61,000

$BTC Was it really this simple the whole time?

My market expectations: One last hurrah (pump) in $BTC and stocks, coupled with positive Iran developments. Eyeing $75k-$81k for BTC’s potential local top zone. This pump to be followed by new lows in the months to come.