ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
Newbies to the Polish political drama need to understand how language is being misused (by both sides) to further their respective crusades.
To the uninitiated, “restoring the rule of law” probably sounds like a noble objective. The framing makes it sound as though the previous government (despite being called the Law and Justice party) ruled without any regard for law and justice. Perhaps, even, that it abused its power by oppressing dissidents or confiscating assets. Who knows.
Tusk’s accusation of “lawlessness” is even more sensational and misleading. In ordinary language, the term conjures up images of a mafia state, or worse, a failed state where it’s every man for himself.
But no reasonable person assessing the period during which PiS was in power could honestly suggest that this was the case. Poland was not lawless in any ordinary understanding of the word.
The sleight of hand lies in taking a specific legal and constitutional dispute and repackaging it as a sweeping indictment of an entire government. The accusation derives its legitimacy from genuine controversies over the rule of law, but its political force comes from the much broader and more sinister meaning that the phrase carries in everyday language.
At the heart of the dispute is the question of whether Polish constitutional law can take precedence over EU law in areas where the EU maintains that its law has primacy, alongside controversies surrounding judicial independence. These are major legal questions, but they are a far cry from the impression of generalised lawlessness that Tusk’s rhetoric invites.
“Restoring the rule of law” is an exceptionally effective piece of political messaging. It allows Tusk to present his government as the force restoring legality, while casting his opponents as people who governed outside the law.
Yet, powerful states such as the US and China have long asserted their sovereignty against international legal constraints they consider unacceptable. The EU may be a distinct legal order whose treaties Poland voluntarily accepted, but the broader question of where national sovereignty ends and supranational authority begins is hardly unique to Poland.
Of course, the ultimate source of the consternation lies in PiS’ judicial reforms during its time in power. Yes, breaking established procedures to pack supposedly independent courts with your own appointees is not a good look. But it becomes a little more understandable when you consider the historical context that Western media so often leave out when reporting on the story.
Poland never underwent a comprehensive “lustration” of its judiciary after the fall of communism. The transition involved compromises that allowed considerable institutional continuity, with elements of the old judicial establishment, its professional networks and institutional culture surviving into the new democratic order.
This is crucial because PiS did not regard itself as politicising an otherwise independent judiciary. Its contention was precisely the opposite: that the judiciary was already politicised, having never been sufficiently disentangled from the structures and networks inherited from the communist era.
From that perspective, its reforms were intended to dismantle an entrenched establishment rather than create one. The opposition and the EU regarded those same interventions as an assault on judicial independence.
Tusk and his allies have often challenged the relevance of the judiciary’s communist-era legacy by pointing out that most judges from that period are no longer serving. But this misses the substance of the argument. The concern is not necessarily about the survival of individual communist-era judges, but about the professional networks, institutional culture and entrenched structures that may have outlived them. The continuum.
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
This sort of account is typical of coverage. It does not provide the essential historical context. It’s not just some petty skirmish over constitutional minutiae. It is a battle over what constitutes sovereignty in a nation that never fully purged historic communist/corrupt networks from its institutions.
It is also about EU double standards in terms of which countries get support for the purging of continuity networks and which ones don’t. It all depends on whether those continuity networks are prepared to submit to Brussels.
🇵🇱 For everyone asking what's happening in Poland tonight, here are the key points:
1. The Constitutional Tribunal's leadership has been challenged.
Judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska issued orders suspending Tribunal President Bogdan Święczkowski and Vice-President Bartłomiej Sochański from their duties for one month. She claims authority to take over the Tribunal's leadership as its most senior judge.
2. Why did she do this?
Korwin-Piotrowska accuses the existing leadership of obstructing the work of judges elected by the current parliamentary majority, violating judicial procedures and preventing the proper functioning of the Tribunal. She also raised concerns about the court's 2027 budget.
3. The Tribunal rejects the orders.
Its existing leadership says the official website was illegally taken over and insists that Święczkowski remains president. The legality of Korwin-Piotrowska's decisions is disputed.
4. Police entered the building.
Following the announcement, demonstrators gathered outside the Tribunal. Tensions escalated, with some people reportedly climbing over the fence and throwing objects at police officers. Police intervened and several people were detained.
5. Why is this Tribunal so important?
The Constitutional Tribunal determines whether laws and other legal acts comply with Poland's Constitution. Its decisions can affect legislation, government actions and the country's entire legal system. Control over its leadership therefore has major constitutional and political significance.
6. This conflict has been building for months.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk's government and President Karol Nawrocki have been locked in a dispute over the Tribunal's composition. Nawrocki refused to swear in three judges elected by parliament, while the Tribunal's existing leadership refused to allow judges appointed by the current parliamentary majority to take their seats.
Tusk's government does not recognise the Tribunal's legitimacy and has refused to publish some of its rulings, citing controversial judicial appointments made under the previous PiS government.
7. Political reactions are escalating.
PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński called on President Nawrocki to intervene, accusing Tusk's government of turning Poland into a police state. Nawrocki cancelled his trip to Senegal and announced that he is returning to Poland.
Tusk, meanwhile, says restoring the rule of law is a difficult but necessary process.
The situation is still developing. Both sides dispute the legality of the actions taken, and the legal authority behind the latest orders remains unresolved.
Poland is now facing one of its most serious institutional confrontations in recent years. What happens next will depend on whether the two sides can resolve this dispute through legal and constitutional channels or whether the standoff escalates further. For now, Warsaw remains at the centre of a crisis that could have far-reaching consequences for the country's institutions and political future.
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
The problem with all coverage of Polish politics is that there is no objective account to be found in the Western media. From the Western/EU perspective, the Tusk government has the moral high ground because the previous government's judicial reforms were illegal. This is not without substance.
However, all reporting frames events exclusively through this prism. As a result, vital historical context regarding how the transition from communism to capitalism unfolded in practice is lost, as is an understanding of why it remains relevant today. For example, the media often ignore the fact that the opposition believes many communist influences were never properly purged from institutions and thus continue to wield disproportionate and subversive influence.
From the Polish nationalist perspective, only those prepared to defend Polish sovereignty retain the moral and constitutional high ground. This is a particularly sensitive issue for Poles, given the country's history of being "off the map" for 123 years.
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
So, basically, 500 million Europeans expect 300 million Americans to protect them from 120 million Russians who can’t even defeat 40 million Ukrainians while those 500 million Europeans don’t even realize they are being conquered by 2 billion Muslims who claim they are being persecuted by 8 million Israelis. Is that about right?
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ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
Huffman's quote is striking, but the bigger tell is the number he gave. Search referrals are dropping by more than a million a week. That's incredibly brutal.
I'd push back a bit on "destroying" though. The way I see it, the web always ran on a trade. Sites let Google read everything for free, and Google sent clicks back. AI answers kept the reading part and quietly dropped the clicks. 68% of US Google searches now end without a click, and chatbots send publishers something like 0.01% of their traffic. The content didn't stop being valuable. Sites just stopped getting paid for it.
So what does a company do when the trade stops working? It tries to charge. And to charge, you first have to be able to say no. That's why Reddit going mostly logged-in was the most interesting part of the call to me. Huffman said it "lets us better protect the Reddit corpus of data." In other words, no more free reads.
The catch is Google. You can't block its AI without disappearing from its search, since it's the same crawler. Hard to negotiate when your only alternative is walking away from your biggest traffic source.
And the licensing money so far is small. Reddit's "other revenue," which includes licensing, was $48M last quarter. Ads were $847M. That gap is a lot of what the stock is wrestling with.
I'm also not sold on "forever." AI still needs fresh human content to be any good, and it's eating the economics that pay for that content. At some point someone has to pay for it again, or the answers get worse. That gives places like Reddit more leverage than this week's chart suggests.
The old deal is dead. The new one just hasn't been priced yet.
Yesterday's earnings call with Reddit's CEO will be referenced for years to come.
Reddit, $RDDT, is now down -42% in 8 trading days.
AI has disrupted search, and the internet more broadly, forever.
Our thoughts on this are included below.
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
The last thing you see before all your crypto disappears.
You fucking retards.
BREAKING: Binance has been hacked with wallets across the Ethereum, Bitcoin, and TRON networks seeing outflows of -$5.7 billion.
The hack includes $1.45 billion worth of Bitcoin and $875 million worth of ETH.
If confirmed, this would mark the biggest hack in crypto history.
We expect more information shortly.
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
The Sunbelt is facing a massive supply glut. Many of the properties that have recently been completed were started when population growth was high (due to migration), capital was cheap, and vacancies were low.
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
I missed this comment last week but this is the fate of many apartment buildings that installed LVP. The remediation cost is astronomical. Sometime in the next 10 years we will enter into a new housing crisis where material choices render apartments uninhabitable.
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
Yep. Pretty much as stated below. And basically the opposite of the depositor insurance scheme.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not dissing the “innovation”. There is value in creating financial systems that bypass conventional regulatory norms and transfer transactions costs to numpty speculators. There’s even more value in using such cost advantages to capture float from jurisdictions that would otherwise be prohibitively costly to service. Even more so if that float can subsidise your transaction costs even further.
I’m dissing the disingenuous way that “innovation” has been marketed and presented to users. As if it is one and the same as the promise originally presented with bitcoin. When it’s not. None of these impacted systems are decentralised. None of them are censorship resistant. And almost all of them depend on shifting the costs and risks to those who can least afford to bear them… aka standard depositors. And (increasingly) depositors in emerging countries with no better options.
At least with self hosted bitcoin wallets you know the deal you’re signing up for. These other systems free ride on bitcoin’s reputation for censorship resistance, while running the same old model the banks have always done, albeit without the same safeguards for everyday depositors.
Again, not saying that’s not a great business model, or a useful pushback against over-regulation. But can we stop pretending there was ever an innovation here beyond regulatory arbitrage and “programmatic” money (which now turns out to be a vulnerability that can only be resolved with technology from the Medici era. Aka offline vaults.)
Look at the contrast:
Binance loses billions:
- Coinbase manually blocks addresses
- Tether and Circle freeze billions in 60 minutes
- Ripple and World Liberty coordinate in group chats
- Executives hug it out on X
A normal user loses $50k to an approval scam:
- "Blockchain transactions are irreversible, anon"
- "Code is law"
- "Have you considered reading the contract bytecode?"
- Zero help from stablecoin issuers
Decentralization for the peasants, emergency bailouts and centralized freezes for the tier-1 cartel.
There are two crypto industries, and you’re not in the protected one.
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
Replying to @DowdEdward
The great irony of AI is that everything has gotten dumber. Especially people.
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
Seven Portland Hotels
The Royal Sonesta Portland Downtown sold for $6.83M, ↓94% from its previous sale price of $108.3M in 2016.
Hotel Zags sold for $10M, ↓79% from its previous price of $47.5M in 2013.
The 455 room Hilton Portland Downtown and the 327 room Hotel Duniway Portland have been REO since 2023. Together appraised at $58.1M, ↓83% from their value of $340.3M in 2019.
The Hotel Deluxe reported a new appraisal at $16.0M, 34% of its valuation of $47.2M in 2015.
The property has reported negative cash flow for five of the past six years.
Hotel Vance in Broadway Tower was taken by the lender last year.
Portland Marriott Downtown Waterfront sold for $30.1M ↓64% from its price of $82.8M in 2013.
#CommercialRealEstate
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
Replying to @WhiteHouse
Who would've thought Cheesecake Factory would be one of the performing consumer stocks having DOUBLED over the last 12 months...
What’s their secret while other restaurant chains struggle badly?
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
I genuinely don't know how Atlassian is still alive. Every dev on earth hates Jira. They've made nothing but stupid acquisitions. Loom. Trello. DX. The Browser Company. Just collecting startups like Pokemon cards.
Meanwhile the founders are sitting in their multi-million dollar properties while the company bleeds money. It's incredible.
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
Something for "Just Stop Oil", Greta, and Extinction Rebellion to ponder:
teapawt.net/tracyalloway/status/21…
Has an S-1 filing ever included "existential risks to humanity" before?
sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
The forward power curves (such as in Texas) and natural gas market pricing still support (after 8 months) deVries' thesis that the future power demand for datacenters is massively overhyped. 🤔
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
I’m seeing a lot of uninformed takes, like this one, about cell simulation feasibility. I wanted to contribute some facts.
Alphafold works for predicting a subset of static structures (not how a protein structure changes shape under forces) on 1) well-ordered regions (not intrinsically disordered regions or long flexible loops) and 2) on proteins with plenty of evolutionary relatives (no orphan proteins).
Alphafold solved this subset of static structure prediction with a dataset that took 50 years (PDB; 1971 to ~2020) to collect. It did not solve protein dynamics or how proteins fold into their shapes. Those remain unsolved.
Cell simulation is vastly more complex and data hungry than any of this. Exact cell simulation means solving quantum equations for every atom and is totally intractable. But all approximations rely on - and are bottlenecked by - data, not compute.
So the extrapolation from “alphafold worked” to “therefore cell simulation is feasible” assumes far too much.
If you had an exponential amount of compute you could solve simulate biology exactly and wouldn't need to run any experiments.
Some of you will think "of course, but that's an unrealistic assumption" and others will think "no, you need experiments even with that much compute. That's just How It's Done".
You would of course need evaluations once you have a solution, but you don't in principle need experiments to find it: Experiments are a way to save compute, dating from a time when it was much more expensive.
And I think the presentation is exponential but real systems aren't irreducibly exponential. AlphaFold worked, after all.
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
$NBIS CEO Arkady Volozh Says Debt Markets Closed for Neoclouds Since Last Week
"We have a pretty healthy balance sheet. We always thought about being more conservative here. We used all kinds of instruments. From last week, probably some of the capital sources are temporarily closed, like the asset-backed or debt market. But we're working now with customer advances and several other instruments,which will probably provide us enough finance to build this gigawatt at least."
ᶜʸᵇᵉʳˢᵉᶜᵘʳⁱᵗʸ retweeted
The Economist's estimate of Britain's age- and sex-standardised conviction rates for sexual offences by the offender's nationality
economist.com/britain/2026/1…
































